I’ve seen the “bad news for Dom Brown” thing on twitter and now on here and I agree with Davis that this makes no sense. Brown is a lefty who is slated to play RF for the Phils. This affects Darin Ruf a heck of a lot more than it does Dom Brown. Brown is still going to play the majority of the games in RF and may even get some time in LF against RHP.
That’s not entirely true. In ’06 and ’07, Young was primarily a rightfielder, with a few games in center (hard to believe now). Since ’08, though, Young has only played left. Well, he’s stood in leftfield while holding a glove.
This is adding by not subtracting. If he hadn’t signed Delmon, Ruben may well have pulled the trigger on the darkly hinted trade of Brown for Alfonso Soriano. He always seems to think someone else’s guys are better than his guys, regardless of the evidence. In this case, he thinks Young is better than Ruf.
Comment by CookieRojas16 — January 22, 2013 @ 4:21 pm
Giving both of us some breathing room!
Comment by A Braves Fan — January 22, 2013 @ 4:24 pm
Amaro apparently says that Young is playing RF. Just to clear that up…
4 worst players from 2011 with their 2012 WAR totals:
Raul Ibanez (-1.3 WAR). 2012: 1.1 WAR
Alex Rios (-0.8 WAR). 2012: 4.3 WAR
Juan Pierre (-0.5 WAR). 2012: 1.7 WAR
Aubrey Huff (-0.4 WAR). 2012: (-0.1) WAR
As for Francoeur, he’s a prime bounceback candidate. His xBABIP was 35 points lower than his actual BABIP. His UZR was the worst of his career. If you regress his babip and give him credit for being a 0 UZR defender–hardly a stretch, see his profile page– he should be worth 2-3 more WAR than he was in 2012.
What a gigantic mistake if they don’t play Darin Ruf full time.
That’s bordering on criminal.
“Babe” Ruf’s should get a legit chance to slug.
Comment by BubbaNoTrubba — January 22, 2013 @ 4:38 pm
Bigger question is what happens with Ruf. Brown was never really a left fielder. He was just moved there to make room for Pence. Manuel has said several times tho, that he likes Ruf… So we’ll see. Clearly the plan is to platoon at least one OF spot, at any rate.
I agree. If this means we dodged Raul Ibanez, Alfonso Soriano, and Vernon Wells, then its only a minor blow.
I do also fear that he is going to be a regular against righties.
Delmon’s interesting personality leaves the potential for some significant fireworks in Philly next year. Hopefully, he can prevent himself from uttering ethnic slurs in Philadelphia dining/drinking establishments.
Comment by Jaybo Shaw — January 22, 2013 @ 4:47 pm
Call me crazy, but I kind of like the whole platoon thing they could potentially go with:
Ruf: 1.326 (SSS) OPS vs LH (.500 higher than vs RH)
Brown: 0.746 OPS vs RH (.125 higher than vs LH)
Young: .824 OPS vs LH (.190 higher than vs RH)
Nix: .744 OPS vs RH (.225 higher than vs LH)
They’ll be statues out there, so defensively it’s a big question mark. But then, they do have a rangy CF, so maybe that helps.
Soriano will almost certainly be better this year then Young or Brown, and he’ll probably be better next year too. For a team that is nearing the end of their competitive window, I’m not so sure that trading Brown for Soriano wouldn’t have been the proper move. Especially if the Cubs would have kicked in a bunch of cash.
This isn’t horrible if it pushes the Phillies to platoon everyone who really needs a platoon (like, say, if Mayberry plays 1st against lefties.) but we all know this wont happen. This deal seems more likely to hurt the Phil’s than help the, given their proclivities towards being dumb.
I’m a long way from a Frenchy fan, but it’s worthwhile to note that, regarding his awful defensive year in 2012, he played virtually all season with a bad foot – something that’s pretty much unknown by everybody. So yes, defensively, assuming health, he is a good candidate for regression to the mean.
Upon further reflection, I don’t think this means significantly fewer ABs for Mayberry, at least not early in the year. I’d wager Ruf will start in AAA and Mayberry will get 200 ABs to open the year in LF, mostly against LH. If one of: Ruf tears up AAA (again)/Young stinks/Mayberry stinks happens, then they’ll adjust (Ruf promotion). Otherwise, cheap depth is ok in my book even if it’s redundant.
So does anybody else out there believe that the Phillies offense and defense are both going to be pretty lousy, and that the Phillies are going to lose 90+ ballgames? Who are this team’s four best hitters, in order? Who are this team’s four best defenders, in order? The Mets traded away the Cy Young Award winner this offseason yet it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they finished ahead of Philly in the standings. Oh, well, this team had one heck of a run, so you can never take that away from them (although RAJ has tried!).
To paraphrase Bill James, if anyone is playing a worse LF than Delmon Young, they’re doing it with a pitchfork. He’ll allow two for every one he drives in. Lonnie Smith looked like Mays compared to this guy.
It really depends on health and whether Cholly uses OF platoons properly. If they have enormous health issues like last year then they could lose 90 games, but if they stay healthy they could easily win 90 games.
As for good hitters, a full year of Utley and Howard and properly used platoons should make them a league average offense at the very least. They also have elite level defenders up the middle and behind the plate so I doubt it will be too big an issue.
They also have arguably one of the better back end bullpens in the league with Paps – Adams – Bastardo (ignore his ERA, his peripherals are outstanding).
They finished .500 last year playing most of the season with 4 position starters, 2 starters, and 4 bullpen guys out, replaced mostly with dreck like Wigginton and AAA fodder. It would take a whole lot of bad luck to be worse than they were last year.
I dont think its such a bad signing. Young finally gets a change to play in a hitter friendly ball park after hitting in Minnesota and Detroit since 2007. Young’s stats in 2010 were pretty solid – never walked often – but his power in 2010 was solid – translate that to Philly and i think you have something. DelYoung is MUCH better than mayberry. when mayberry finally played every day last year his stats plummeted. and dont get me wrong, i dont love young at all – but at this price its a bargain. plus his assets will play well in a stadium like philly. now to the extent that mayberry keep ruf down – i think thats a problem. ruf needs a chance – and he still might get it with young in there – but its not clear.
Comment by Simon Daillie — January 22, 2013 @ 10:35 pm
It makes sense if you’re putting anyone other than Delmon Young out there to “field” out in right.
I think we know that eventually this is heading towards Darin Ruf in LF and Delmon Young in RF. Domonic Brown has had two relatively poor showings in 200+ PA samples in 2011 & 2012 and while he’s shown some things that fangraphs’ readers like (good plate discipline, BB%) he hasn’t shown the traditional stats (BA, RBIs) that the Phillies like. While it’s troubling that the phillies seem to allocate parts of the 170+ million dollar pay roll based on statistics like RBIs and Saves, i think the most troubling part of this transaction is the Delmon to RF thing. The phillies have said they’re moving him back to RF because he’s more comfortable in RF and that their reports had him better in RF than LF. Given that Young hasn’t played RF since 2007, the implication seems to be that the phillies are making roster decisions based off of 5-year old scouting reports, which if true is more damning than the outdated statistical approach.
The issue is that Charlie Manuel is the manager. He’s not a proponent of platoons, and has shown that he favors older players over younger players (at least recently). I think the discord between Amaro and Manuel is going to be apparent early in the season, when Charlie is playing Young everyday despite .270/.295/.400 (and worse against RHP). I just don’t understand this move because Amaro is giving Manuel the opportunity to block the development of Brown and Ruf with huge opportunity cost for an aging team.
Comment by AndySloanie — January 23, 2013 @ 10:09 am
The price isn’t a bargain considering there are incentives. The $750K is the minimum that he’ll make. Furthermore, why do you think Young is much better than Mayberry? There’s no evidence supporting that claim.
Comment by AndySloanie — January 23, 2013 @ 10:14 am
I generally can’t stand the whole “baseball-is-played-on-the-field-not-on-a-computer” mantra, but everyone that says Delmon Young is a good deal at $750,000 deserves to hear it. They give us geeks a bad name.
Look, I can go to the local hardware store and get all kinds of great deals on a whole bunch of things. They’re having a clearance, and it’s 75% off windshield wipers! The one problem is that I don’t have a car.
The Phillies don’t need Delmon Young.
Now the word is that they want to use him as their regular RF. Cite Dom Brown’s negative UZR or whatever it is all you want, but believe me, Delmon Young is worse. He’s worse than everyone. Remember Pete Incaviglia, Philadelphia? Now imagine if he couldn’t hit.
Cannot hit anyone but left-handers. Flatly refuses to take any pitches. Grounds into as many double plays as he can. Cannot run the bases, even a little. Cannot play field whatsoever. Cannot not go on an anti-semitic rant in front of a hotel at 3am…the list goes on.
Have fun with one of the worst all-around ballplayers ever.
I had seen that news somewhere before reading Dave’s post and wondered what he was talking about. It must have broken after he wrote it.
I was hoping the Rays would get him as a part-time DH but I knew his ego wouldn’t allow that.
I wonder if Amaro is blowing smoke or serious. NL teams can hardly spare a roster spot for a pinch-hitter vs. lefties only spot.
First, when defense is concerned I can’t just look at stats. I watched every game last year for the Phillies, and saw some promising progress out of Brown in the field (and at the plate). He still needs to work on his routes a bit, but I don’t know what you are talking about with regards to his arm, he has a rocket. His range will improve with consistent playing time because it is not a matter of speed, but more with routes, which is teachable.
Young is an absolute downgrade defensively, no matter what the stats say. I’m also am failing to see any real upgrade at the plate, seeing as though well over half of pitches thrown in the majors are made by righties. We also have to consider the fact that Young has been on a steady decline over the last few years.
I’m not ready to give up on Brown yet, and truly believe that the Phillies have misused him ever since they saw that he was the top prospect in baseball a few years ago. On top of a bunch of minor injuries, the phillies brass is the reason Brown has not made any real strides in the majors yet. He needs continuity and confidence, neither of which come with being ushered up and back from triple A and the majors. He has never even had a HALF of a year continuously in the majors, so how can we truly expect him to succeed?
I am totally against this move, for the simple fact that this could be the last straw in Brown’s development, because if he doesn’t get his REAL chance this year to succeed, he may never recover mentally and never fulfill the potential he has. In my opinion, the upgrade against LHP’s for one year is simply not worth the future implications. Plus, the minor upgrade against lefties will not make or break the phillies ’13 season, the Phillies season will depend on pitching and the infielders staying healthy and productive. Delmon young is inconsequential,and, if anything, a detriment.