FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Petition on Behalf of In-Season Daily Notes Followers Everywhere

    Please find a way to include starting pitcher Pace statistics (or, ideally, team pitching staff Pace statistics) in the universally-beloved and already near-flawless watchability/NERD scores.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — January 31, 2013 @ 11:51 am

  2. This is incredible news! I don’t remember hearing about the Oliver projections coming to FanGraphs. Hopefully the MLB equivalency projections will be released for minor leaguers as well.

    Comment by Rob — January 31, 2013 @ 12:25 pm

  3. And more cowbell.

    Comment by Steve Balboni — January 31, 2013 @ 12:32 pm

  4. Do all Japanese players have such similar MLE HR rates as these guys. I find this hard to believe especially after looking at someone like Hideki Matsui and how he never hit 30 HR in the US after averaging 40+ over his final 4 seasons in Japan.

    Comment by JP — January 31, 2013 @ 2:32 pm

  5. Interesting that NPB BB rates translate to higher MLE BB rates. Is that a function of older players v the American minors (ie old player skills) or something to do with Japanese baseball culture (perhaps – patience grasshopper what is the sound of one bat whiffing)?

    Comment by jfree — January 31, 2013 @ 3:34 pm

  6. Great to see that Oliver projections are coming here. I hope that will include 5-year projections and also in-season daily updates, like what was avail. at THT. Thanks.

    Comment by evo34 — January 31, 2013 @ 3:52 pm

  7. Seconded.

    Comment by Atticus — January 31, 2013 @ 5:06 pm

  8. The plan is to have everything that was available at THT and more.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 31, 2013 @ 6:38 pm

  9. Not only does the NPB have small ball parks but before (I believe it was) 2011 they had a different ball. The new ball allows only about 60% of the previous HR rate. This is a big reason for Matsui’s big numbers – a 40 HR season would be equivalent to 25-30 with the new ball.

    Each season gives more instances of players performing both in the states and in Japan, using the new ball, but it’s still not enough for a reliable league translation. I am translating the older Japanese seasons into an equivalent performance with the new ball and adding them to the more recent seasons. However, this now gives a batting translation that show MLB and NPB to be very close in level (opponent pitcher’s skill) which I am not sure is correct.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 31, 2013 @ 6:45 pm

  10. Jimminy Christmas, are you joking? A 336/443/563 line with 28 bombs in the majors for a 33-year old Japanese catcher? Vogelbach hitting more bombs in the bigs than in rookie & short-season ball? College guy putting a 429 OBP in the majors?

    Whatever you are on, kind sir, I want some.

    Comment by Robert — January 31, 2013 @ 7:56 pm

  11. Seconded. Pace definitely improves watchability which is what NERD is all about.

    Comment by MikeS — January 31, 2013 @ 8:02 pm

  12. Again, a MLE is an evaluation of a single season, not the player’s true talent level. You can find examples of guys already in the majors who have a great outlier season, or part of one. Hell, one year Jack Wilson hit .312!

    A projection takes three years worth of data and regresses it. That does much to temper these seasonal fluctuations.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — January 31, 2013 @ 8:24 pm

  13. “Zobrist was not the “best player” in MLB a couple years back [2009, in which Zobrist posted an 8.7 WAR], but he did have one of the five best performances that year (depending on whose WAR you use).”

    What does this even mean? Instead of taking ACTUAL PERFORMANCE, you just make up some silly handwaving bullshit?

    Comment by dafuq — February 1, 2013 @ 9:54 am

  14. It’s the difference between measuring what a player did in the past performance and predicting what he will do in the future.

    Zobrist’s 2009 had been rated by some measures as the best in MLB that year (I rated him 5th). I recently had a twitter debate with a guy who argued WAR was meaningless because it rated Zobrist that high, that he was not the ‘best player in MLB’. It is a fact that Zobrist did have a great 2009, but that single season performance did not mean that Zobrist was expected to have the best 2010. Those are two different concepts. Different skills (BABIP, HR%, BB%, SO%) have different correlations of past to future performance, but generally three years of past data are needed to get the most accurate projection of the next season.

    Comment by Brian Cartwright — February 3, 2013 @ 8:36 am

  15. So, lately I’ve been working on a research project that is a projection system for Japanese players coming to the MLB (unfinished, but the website is above). Part of my evaluations include park factors, and I would like to point out that, based on my research, both of those players play in two of the bigger offensive parks in the NPB. The Tokyo Dome is very home run friendly, especially to lefties, which Abe is. The Seibu dome is an overall offensively friendly park, especially for righties. So, I would expect their translated numbers to be significantly suppressed from their Japanese lines. These park effects are taken after the NPB ball change in 2011.

    Someone above mentioned Hideki Mastui, and his home run totals. He was another lefty playing in the Tokyo Dome, so probably saw some inflation from the park. Anyway, I know Brian a little bit from BucsDugout, and it will be interesting to see how our projections compare when I finish them. I should finish the hitters by the end of the month if anyone is interested.

    Comment by Connor — February 4, 2013 @ 4:42 pm

  16. Any update on this? Thanks.

    Comment by evo34 — March 11, 2013 @ 3:58 am

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