FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. What a joke

    Comment by Bill Nye — February 1, 2013 @ 8:56 am

  2. The Marlins did the right thing selling off everybody who made real money right? They’re going nowhere anyway, so you might as well go all out. It’s the flip side of the same coin of what the Angels did. They already committed too much for the sake of competing, so they might as well double down and sign Josh Hamilton.

    I know it’s a very sticky situation with the new (mostly publicly financed)ballpark, but staying afloat in mediocrity would have done them no good.

    Comment by RMD — February 1, 2013 @ 9:00 am

  3. I know it’s be hashed around the interwebs already but……….. seriously the Rangers need to call Miami and offer up Profar and Olt or somthing and get Stanton off this team. With the team control on Stanton the Rangers could resign Andrus with the cash savings….unless the Rangers seriously think they have Mike Trout in the infield with Profar.

    Comment by BEN2074X — February 1, 2013 @ 9:15 am

  4. Absolutely ridiculous. The front office is the worst in baseball. Unfortunately you can’t fire the owner and his step-son/president of business operations. This is the ugliest team possibly in the last 80 years. I feel bad for Stanton. One he’s gone this team will be worse than a Pioneer League team!

    Comment by Nathan — February 1, 2013 @ 9:40 am

  5. Front office and ownership are not the same thing.

    Comment by ba — February 1, 2013 @ 9:55 am

  6. Looks like Stanton’s player comp will ruin any chance he has at making the Hall of Fame. Association with McGwire? Then you’re not allowed! BBWAA takes their steroid associations very seriously.

    Comment by Jeff Bagwell — February 1, 2013 @ 9:57 am

  7. Wow. Justin Ruggiano projected to be the 2nd most valuable player. Amazing. Astros fans should be doing backflips.

    Comment by KJ — February 1, 2013 @ 10:04 am

  8. Giancarlo Stanton must be the best projected player relative to the rest of his team.

    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — February 1, 2013 @ 10:09 am

  9. Are Leroy and Giancarlo related?

    Comment by qpontiac — February 1, 2013 @ 10:20 am

  10. So they have exactly two players projected to have an above average OPS, and exactly one player projected to have an above average ERA. Seems like they could make a run at 120 losses.

    Comment by Rick — February 1, 2013 @ 10:34 am

  11. 41 home runs, 31 doubles, 98 RBI. Fuck the Marlins

    Comment by James — February 1, 2013 @ 11:00 am

  12. even in a universe where the options are strictly binary, between 1)selling off all nearly literally contract obligations after one underperformed season to enter complete “rebuilding mode” and 2) keeping those same contract obligations only 1 year after going all in, I am not sure this could count as the “right thing.” the 2012 marlins were at this time last year expected to be competitive in a division that seemed up for grabs. the nl east seems on paper to be more lopsided in favor of the nationals/braves this year.

    There is i’m sure a world where johnson and reyes flame out due to injury, buerhle is vastly overpaid, and bonifacio just keeps bonifacioing it up. in that world unloading these contracts in one big dump might retroactively seem savvy. But the context for the dump make absolutely nothing about what the marlins ownership did the “right thing”

    Comment by tylersnotes — February 1, 2013 @ 11:04 am

  13. stanton on the marlins is the best hope the city of miami has to have someone’s homeruns accidentally destroy the stadium and get the insurance money.

    Comment by tylersnotes — February 1, 2013 @ 11:06 am

  14. I love the Greg Dobbs comp to Wes Helms. They even kind of look alike. Only difference is Helms was quite a bit bigger.

    Comment by TKDC — February 1, 2013 @ 11:06 am

  15. would that be the most HR ever with <100 RBI?

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:15 am

  16. FREE GIANCARLO!

    Comment by Mel — February 1, 2013 @ 11:16 am

  17. Chad Qualls’ closest comp is Jose Bautista. Someone put a bat in his hands!

    Comment by Nick C — February 1, 2013 @ 11:20 am

  18. ZiPS has Giancarlo with the highest OPS+ so far, 2 ticks higher than Miggy and 4 higher than Votto. no one else is particularly close. not all that surprising, just interesting that ZiPS is essentially declaring him the best hitter in baseball.

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:20 am

  19. Yeah, he edges out David Wright by a hair, it looks like.

    Comment by Nick C — February 1, 2013 @ 11:23 am

  20. What an insult to Mike Trout.

    Comment by Nick C — February 1, 2013 @ 11:25 am

  21. answered my own question (and yes, I know 100 is an arbitrary number): Bonds hit 45 HR and had 90 RBI in 2003 (45 and 101 in 2004). about 1/3 of his hits were HR those years (and he was obviously walked at a historical rate).

    Killebrew in ’63, Aaron in ’60, Davey Johnson in ’73, Matt Williams in ’94, the Mick in ’97.

    Dunn had 41 and 96 last year.

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:31 am

  22. The Marlins should be thrilled, Chad Qualls closest comparison is Jose Bautista. They can move Stanton to LF now!

    Comment by Radivel — February 1, 2013 @ 11:31 am

  23. yeah ZiPS only projects Trout at 8 WAR. travesty.

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:32 am

  24. It’s pretty fishy.

    Comment by Radivel — February 1, 2013 @ 11:32 am

  25. err The Mick in ’58

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:33 am

  26. I know he isn’t with them, but I was hoping to find a Javier Vazquez projection here. He is looking to make a comeback and this was the last team he played for. I would imagine he would still be pretty solid as he was productive two years ago. Has a projection for him been released elsewhere, or will it be coming in the future?

    Comment by Bobby — February 1, 2013 @ 11:39 am

  27. 21 WAR

    Comment by Other Bill — February 1, 2013 @ 11:41 am

  28. Usually true, But Loria is very involved with all of the front office decisions.

    Comment by Ryan — February 1, 2013 @ 11:42 am

  29. is Giancarlo the only thing stopping this from being the worst team of all-time?

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 1, 2013 @ 11:50 am

  30. Stanton’s on base is going to be way higher. He’ll get walked a lot more because of the suck that surrounds him.

    Comment by Antonio bananas — February 1, 2013 @ 12:20 pm

  31. If Stanton was at a league average 2 WAR, they would still have a 1 WAR advantage over the Astros’ depth chart projections.

    Comment by Daniel — February 1, 2013 @ 12:21 pm

  32. i dont even think theyre the uggliest team in baseball this year. let alone the last 80 years. i would not be the least bit surprised if a team like this went out and won something like 75 games. you only have to go back as far as last year and look at the Orioles

    Comment by Clifford — February 1, 2013 @ 12:46 pm

  33. “All-time” encompasses a lot of suck. You’ve got 40s Phillies teams, 80s Mariners teams, and the Cleveland Spiders.

    Comment by Yo — February 1, 2013 @ 1:24 pm

  34. The Marlins are a factory of sadness

    Comment by Nortorious — February 1, 2013 @ 1:51 pm

  35. Though this is not a valid way of comparing teams, I am very surprised that the total of the depth chart here is 2 WAR higher than the Mets’.
    If Stanton’s WAR were subtracted, their total would be worse than the Astros’.

    Comment by Baltar — February 1, 2013 @ 2:05 pm

  36. Bautista was mediocre for years before he broke out into stardom. This comp does not predict that the latter will happen for Qualls, only that they were similar players at this point in their careers.

    Comment by Baltar — February 1, 2013 @ 2:07 pm

  37. Not even close to that many losses. See Dan’s comments (and mine) in previous posts on why your reasoning is totally wrong.

    Comment by Baltar — February 1, 2013 @ 2:13 pm

  38. You’re retarded dude. The Marlins got a shitload back in prospects and salary for a couple of huge contracts which we’re likely to be negative going forward. Much rather have had this offseason than the Royals or DBacks.

    Check the Marlin’s average record under Loria. Are you really going to argue he’s a deplorable owner?

    Comment by vivaelpujols — February 1, 2013 @ 2:18 pm

  39. What happens if you take away 6 WAR from the Astros?

    Comment by vivaelpujols — February 1, 2013 @ 2:18 pm

  40. It’s actually the pitcher, not the outfielder…

    Comment by Adam R — February 1, 2013 @ 2:19 pm

  41. Yeah, it’s going to be hard for any team ever to be worse than the 1899 Cleveland Spiders. They were so bad that about halfway through the season, teams started refusing to travel to Cleveland for games, because so few fans attended that the visiting teams’ share of gate receipts didn’t even cover their travel expenses (they only played 42 games at home and drew a total of 6,088 fans, or 145 per game).

    They lost 101 games…on the road. Their longest winning streak of the season was two games, which they did…once. They allowed 1,252 runs in 154 games, or 8.13 runs per game. They finished EIGHTY-FOUR GAMES out of first place. Over a 162-game season, their .130 winning percentage translates to a 21-141 record.

    I think that even the 2013 Miami Marlins will win more than 21 games.

    Comment by Adam R — February 1, 2013 @ 2:26 pm

  42. If the Mets depth chart were updated for new acquisitions, it would be 3–4 WAR higher (mostly from the addition of Marcum in the rotation).

    Comment by Sylvan — February 1, 2013 @ 2:39 pm

  43. Wright’s projection isn’t that high. ZIPS picks him to decline by 4 WAR from last year.

    Comment by Sylvan — February 1, 2013 @ 2:40 pm

  44. At least they have that awesome home run sculpture thingy.

    Comment by maguro — February 1, 2013 @ 2:56 pm

  45. Baltar may have missed the sarcasm there.

    Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — February 1, 2013 @ 4:50 pm

  46. Definitely bass ackward.

    Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — February 1, 2013 @ 4:51 pm

  47. Does the factory also process peanuts?

    Comment by Craig Griffey was an Ahole — February 1, 2013 @ 5:14 pm

  48. The 2003 Tigers managed to be below zero as a team by baseball-reference WAR.

    Comment by Sylvan — February 1, 2013 @ 5:52 pm

  49. I think the “reasoning” you’re attacking so forcefully is a rhetorical device known as “hyperbole.” Check it out sometime. . . .

    Comment by Tom — February 1, 2013 @ 7:56 pm

  50. The Braves are the “uggliest” team in baseball ;)

    Comment by Dave S — February 1, 2013 @ 8:41 pm

  51. Not sure if you’re trolling, but are you seriously suggesting he isn’t a deplorable owner?

    Comment by Josh — February 2, 2013 @ 1:34 am

  52. I agree in the main Nathan sans the hyperbole. This roster is certainly the least experienced in MLB. The pitching is so iffy, especially starting pitching, that losing 100 games with this squad looks like the bet to play. Those talking about ‘all the X that the Marlins got back’ are playing instruments inside the camp’s barbed wire: many prospects _never_ pan out, and the guys that game aren’t a single one of them high end projections to begin with. Not even a whole lot of maybe, just hopes and dreams. I don’t think this is the worst team in 80 years in terms of 25 man ability, but it’s a lousy team.

    The Marlins had the worst offseason of any team given the squad dis/re/assembled. Which is saying something given how bad the Mariners’ offseason was (though the northwestern counterweight to Miami’s odium did at least acquire Kendrys Morales who projects better than anyone the Marlins got back). There was no obvious attempt by the Marlins to deal their frontliners for a good return. That would have involved multiple negotiations, and the tear down would have been obvious and might well have achieved an intervention by the Commissioner’s office. The process looked more like finding whoever would take those long-money contracts north, and taking back in return whatever/however little was offered. The point was speed and a fait accompli. One can say this for Loria: he does the stab in the back as quick, clean, and dead as the best of them, icepick to the base of the skull, you’re hopes are dead before you even know he’s snuck up behind you.

    Comment by Balthazar — February 2, 2013 @ 2:42 am

  53. Stanton’s best comp is Dick Allen. And look at who and what Stanton is: a massive man, who was huge for his age and hitting moonshots in his _mid-teens_. There really ARE ‘power hitters,’ both presently and historically. It’s just that there are never very many of them. Most of them look like Stanton, and always perform with maximum power. They don’t look like, say, Jose Bautista, who looked one way and had the results to match for most of his career . . . then the visuals and the distances shifted. Power hitters _do_ look like the young Mark McGwire, who was a great big guy who always hit for excellent power—and then suddenly added a lot of body mass when his career looked to be over and added YARDS of drive to his ridiculously more numerous longballs.

    Stanton has always had legitimate 75-80 power, and the physique one would expect. If at some point he goes from 40 HR a year to 60+ with mucho added distance, there’s reason for suspicion. But as of now, he looks exactly like what he was projected to be from his mid-teens on.

    Comment by Balthazar — February 2, 2013 @ 2:51 am

  54. DGANCO UNCHAINED11

    Comment by Balthazar — February 2, 2013 @ 2:56 am

  55. Seriously, Stanon may BE the best hitter in baseball. I’d Vote vor Votto, who makes more contact, but Giancarlo is still very young and _years_ away from his peak; consider that.

    Stanton may well be the best _player_ in baseball. He’s very good defensively, for instance. A lot of Trout’s value is packed into his speed, and as well the range it gives him on defense, and yes Trout plays a more important position. Dganco drives the ball really, realy well, which is kinda nice to have. Who ‘the best player is’ is a matter of taste, really, because different guys do different valuable things. But yes, Stanton may be the best for several years once the focus on Ks goes is brought into the (diminished) perspective it actually merits.

    Comment by Balthazar — February 2, 2013 @ 3:02 am

  56. Stale ones. You pay extra for salt. And the Coke is flat.

    And for all that, the Miami factory mints shiny gold coins the owner pockets on a daily basis. That factory works just fine for what it was designed to produce.

    Comment by Balthazar — February 2, 2013 @ 3:23 am

  57. Yep, any time anything happens that isn’t a perfect arc that means steroids.

    Comment by TKDC — February 2, 2013 @ 11:12 am

  58. i would like to get an idea why every expert is so down on jacob turner when he was with detroit he was a good prospect and now everybody thinks he will only be a #5 starter

    Comment by Mario — February 2, 2013 @ 7:26 pm

  59. Yeah, I don’t understand the Turner projection either? He actually had 7 starts with the Marlins last year and pitched pretty well. Why is he projected to be that bad?

    Comment by marlins12 — February 2, 2013 @ 10:53 pm

  60. Am I reading you incorrectly, or are you implying that Bautista should be under suspicion for steroids?

    Comment by Jeff — February 3, 2013 @ 11:17 am

  61. Not all arcs are created equal (or naturally). And the use of the word is incorrect in your remarks, as an ‘arc’ implies two points on a common trajectory. Jose Bautista’s career has two, distinct arcs which don’t resemble each other at all. The second recent one, has .150+ of ISO above _anything_ Bautista ever managed before. His body in the second arc ‘doesn’t look the same,’ unsurprisingly.

    Players do at times change their skillset; it isn’t common, and isn’t commonly successful, but it can happen. One does find guys who quit swinging at fastballs off the plate away, or finally recognize that the League throws them sliders in certain counts, and so on. There’s nothing in Bautista’s batting profile that suggests that. And such empirical ‘evidence’ isn’t always what it seems. Yes, Sammy Sosa started laying off some pitches after he and his numbers got big; but we know his real improvements weren’t a matter of skill. Melky Cabrera didn’t have an ‘imperfect arc,’ he didn’t ‘figure things out’ at the plate; he went from milky to MELKY! to murky to jerky, which strongly looked like pincushion pinball, and was. And with Bautista, he’s drawing a lot more walks, though yes his strike zone judgment was always pretty good, but it’s more a function of what the pitchers choose to throw him now and when given he’s making signicantly more contact than in his early career and taking borderline pitches yard in bunches.

    In my view, if anyone _isn’t_ suspicious of Jose Bautista’s change of career ‘trajectory,’ their reasoning faculties are impaired. That’s not proof, but he’s the most suspicious player in the game. Things that seem too good to be true nearly always are. There really isn’t any place for naivete about this given _25 years_ of observational evidence of the impact of PED usage on sports performance, in baseball and elsewhere. Guys who’ve always looked good and driven the snot out of the ball look like Griffey, Jr. and Votto and Stanton,, _always_ looked like that from early amateur days, and there just aren’t ever very many of those guys at one time. Guys who look one way and then look super-duper have been fairly common over the last 25 years of MLB, and we know a lot more about how they got off one track and onto another now.

    Comment by Balthazar — February 4, 2013 @ 4:28 am

  62. Maybe it’s still early to say what’s going to happen, but it’s for the team members to decide. Good post.

    Comment by Ugo Colombo CMC — May 6, 2013 @ 9:52 am

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