FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Love the projections. Check Madison Bumgardner’s FIP though-I dont see him lasting long with a FIP hovering around 12.50.

    Comment by Sean Murphy — February 5, 2013 @ 3:12 pm

  2. Nah it’s okay, .061 BABIP will keep him hanging around.

    Comment by Justin — February 5, 2013 @ 3:18 pm

  3. Definitely re-directs to a blank 2012 projection page.

    Comment by Lil' Hank Conger — February 5, 2013 @ 3:22 pm

  4. Ya I think the HR/FB and BABIP component got screwed up.

    I just drafted him in a sim league.. not loving the projections to give up 11 hr per game. :( However, with a negative average on balls in play, that should help me somehow…

    Comment by Jim Lahey — February 5, 2013 @ 3:26 pm

  5. Ben Sheets is back!

    Comment by Matt — February 5, 2013 @ 3:28 pm

  6. Uh oh. Looks like a couple of columns got swapped. He should have a 0.294 BABIP.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 3:40 pm

  7. He’ll allow a HR every single inning, but only a 4.48 ERA. I guess half of all his homers will come with 2 outs and an error previously committed. Hopefully, the smarter teams will be off-put by his 15.84 FIP.

    Comment by RMD — February 5, 2013 @ 3:42 pm

  8. We’ll see how long Oliver Perez keeps up his projected -.095 BABIP.

    Comment by Ross — February 5, 2013 @ 3:44 pm

  9. But he is a fly ball pitcher!

    Should be fixed now. 0.282 BABIP. Somewhat less impressive.

    Bumgarner should look like a mortal now too.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 3:59 pm

  10. Looks like the Oliver projections are new today too.

    Comment by Jay29 — February 5, 2013 @ 4:03 pm

  11. Thanks for catching this, btw.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 4:04 pm

  12. David Huff w/ 16W FTW

    Comment by Scott — February 5, 2013 @ 4:21 pm

  13. OK….turns out just Last Player picked is reflecting that crazy number from 2013 steamer projections……probably something to do with a rate being converted to a static value

    Comment by Scott — February 5, 2013 @ 4:22 pm

  14. Oliver loves itself some Yu Darvish.

    Comment by Darren — February 5, 2013 @ 4:37 pm

  15. Any plans to show long-term Oliver projections?

    Comment by evo34 — February 5, 2013 @ 5:15 pm

  16. I wonder if that has something to do with their MLE’s from his Japanese years. A couple of them were mentioned the other day in the daily notes ( and seemed to be very optimistic. IMHO, it didn’t seem to take park effects into account, among a few other things.

    Comment by Connor — February 5, 2013 @ 5:16 pm

  17. I’m still confused as to why Ben Sheets projects to throw 231.0 innings…

    Comment by Matt — February 5, 2013 @ 5:23 pm

  18. Why aren’t the entire projections listed on the Projections page? I.E. Steamer is missing SF, SH, GDP, IBB, K%, BB%, ISO, BABIP, and wRC from the exportable spreadsheet but those stats show up on all the individual player pages.

    Comment by Nathan — February 5, 2013 @ 5:38 pm

  19. 78 stolen bases for Billy Hamilton, that would be awesome, but Steamer might wanna figure out a Dusty Baker factor into these projections.

    Comment by theawesomersfranchise — February 5, 2013 @ 6:08 pm

  20. Is there something wrong with the Oliver pitching projections? 15 starters with a FIP under 3.00? Doesn’t seem possible…even the fans only have 4 and steamer just has Strasburg.

    Comment by mmanovich — February 5, 2013 @ 8:53 pm

  21. very small impact…but the projections are slightly different than the download from the steamer site. Any idea why?

    again, very slight from the few i check; curious more than anything.

    Comment by Mike610 — February 5, 2013 @ 9:59 pm

  22. I really do want to do this, btw. Not just for Baker but for all managers.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 10:17 pm

  23. The playing time is based on Fangraph fan ballots and we haven’t filtered out anomalous projections yet. Sheets has one fan projection and that fan is expected a big time comeback.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 10:21 pm

  24. The rate projections aren’t completely independent of projected playing time and role (for pitchers, the role makes a big difference, of course) and the projections on the Steamer site have somewhat different playing time/roles forecasted.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 10:24 pm

  25. Why would the Steamer projections here not use your playing time projections? If someone wanted to merge your rate forecasts with the FANS’ playing time forecasts, he/she could. As it is now, your playing time forecasts are being withheld.

    Comment by evo34 — February 5, 2013 @ 10:39 pm

  26. evo34,

    We don’t have our OWN playing time projections. We will play around with the fan playing time though and put our own twist on it (weighing more recent projections more, for instance) as the season draws closer.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 5, 2013 @ 10:58 pm

  27. It seems like everyone has a FIP significantly lower than his ERA.

    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — February 6, 2013 @ 12:35 am

  28. Unrelated, is there any way to get a spreadsheet with the Bill James player projections? I know you can export the data from Oliver and Steamer. (and hopefully zips when its done)

    Comment by bothdakotas — February 6, 2013 @ 1:08 am

  29. There is!

    Comment by byron — February 6, 2013 @ 2:21 am

  30. Oh, I thought this was going to be another Delmon Young article.

    Comment by Tim — February 6, 2013 @ 3:09 am

  31. How was it decided which players would get projections? I was looking at the Padres ones and while I understand how some of the less experienced players like Tommy Layne, Miles Mikolas and Nick Vincent would get skipped, I don’t understand why Brad Brach (67 games in 2012) and Joe Thatcher (237 career games) would get passed over. Especially considering that someone like Tyson Ross did get a projection.

    Comment by Sean D. — February 6, 2013 @ 12:38 pm

  32. Thatcher’s Steamer projection isn’t showing up, but he does have one (3.40 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9). I’ll get back to you on this.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 6, 2013 @ 1:48 pm

  33. BsR is all kinds of messed up in here. Either it’s way, way too heavily regressed or the SB/CS portion isn’t split out from wOBA the way it is on the player pages.

    Comment by Calvin — February 8, 2013 @ 3:54 am

  34. I’m really confused as to how the Steamer projections translate to their estimated fantasy value. Michael Young being worth more than Buster Posey, for example. Is there an explanation of that somewhere?

    Comment by tarheelhitch — February 12, 2013 @ 10:31 am

  35. That’s only in an NL-only league. Chance it’s a mistake, or chance NL 3B is dead and NL C isn’t so bad. I don’t play in any single-league leagues to know.

    Comment by byron — February 12, 2013 @ 2:41 pm

  36. I am confused about the Steamer projections. Are the Steamer/Razzball projections available for download through the Steamer site the same as those referenced here? I am seeing a good deal of variation across the board.

    Comment by phaddix — February 13, 2013 @ 5:03 pm

  37. phaddix, the playing time is different. The playing time here is from Fangraph fan ballots and the Steamer/Razzball playing time is from Rudy Gamble of Razzball. For pitchers, the roles might be a little different (guys expected to start on one site, throwing innings in relief on the other) and that might make a significant difference in the rates. Beyond that the rates should be very similar but not identical since they have a (slight) dependance on playing time.

    Comment by J. Cross — February 13, 2013 @ 7:07 pm

  38. Anyone else notice that Steamer projected 2013 stats for former Rockie/current Seahawks QB Russell Wilson?

    Comment by Greg S — February 15, 2013 @ 4:54 pm

  39. Do you have these for Cleveland?

    Comment by shthar — February 16, 2013 @ 11:01 pm

  40. What does the $OBP mean for the fantasy column? Does it mean if you’re league uses OBP instead of average? Thanks for any help!

    Comment by John — February 23, 2013 @ 2:44 pm

  41. Ok I’m fairly new to all this. I’m in a 10 team, Yahoo H2H 5×5 league with OBP instead of Avg. I have the 4th in my upcoming draft and I’m sure 1-3 will be Trout, Miggy and Braun. Based on these Steamer/Fans projections, who should I be taking? I pretty much had Cano locked up but not so sure anymore after looking at this. Thanks for any help/advice that can be given to me!

    Comment by B.o.B — March 4, 2013 @ 7:04 pm

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