9.5%BB/19.1%K/.178 ISO for Wieters are all a tick worse than he put up last year, which seems a little strange for a guy who is steadily improving and entering his peak years.
“Steadily improving” usually means due for regression in the eyes of ZiPS. It is not the case that inertia will make you better and better each season, despite what many fans want to believe. His mean projection might improve each season, but he won’t keep putting up numbers on the right-hand side of each season’s distribution curve, which accounts for why his numbers are a tick lower.
I love the Chris Davis/Larry Sheets comp. Sheets had his 30 homer year in 1987 at age 27, but that they are both Baltimore left-handed designated hitters is fun.
To get persnickety, Davis probably has more pop but strikes out a lot more.
“Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.”
With this in mind, Ryan Adams (FA), Jim Thome (FA), Antoan Richardson (FA), Nick Johnson (retired), Jai Miller (retired), Endy Chavez (KCR), Bill Hall (LAA), Josh Barfield (FA), Randy Wolf (FA), Robert Hinton (FA), Miguel Socolovich (Carp), and Joe Saunders (SEA) are no longer in the Orioles organization.
FAs are always listed with their old team. And as noted previously, anyone that goes to Japan or retires get one final projection. Saunders signed after I sent to Cistulli, but the other two, I’ll make the changes now.
Yeah I don’t get it. Chen K’d 7.2 per 9 last year (18.8%), but Zips expects the K rate to drop to 4.86 per 9 (12.7%)? I guess Zips really thinks 2012 was an outlier. I would have expected the system to weigh MLB performance more heavily than what happened overseas, but that is clearly not the case.
LuckyStrikes says:
February 8, 2013 at 8:13 am
Stating the obvious, but little chance the birds make it back to the playoffs in 2013. Sorry O’s fans.
rustydude says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:06 am
9.5%BB/19.1%K/.178 ISO for Wieters are all a tick worse than he put up last year, which seems a little strange for a guy who is steadily improving and entering his peak years.
Clifford says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:38 am
hmm, seem to remember hearing that very same thing this time a year ago.
Brian says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:40 am
“Steadily improving” usually means due for regression in the eyes of ZiPS. It is not the case that inertia will make you better and better each season, despite what many fans want to believe. His mean projection might improve each season, but he won’t keep putting up numbers on the right-hand side of each season’s distribution curve, which accounts for why his numbers are a tick lower.
Jaack says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:42 am
I don’t know who has a more ridiculous name, Taylor Teagarden or his comp, Jayhawk Owens.
Also, “Not Giancarlo” Mike Stanton and one Boom Boom Beck, who played in 1924, 1927-28, 1933-34, and 1939-45.
This might be the best class of comps yet.
Jaack says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:44 am
Oh God, how did I miss Kirk Reuter. This is no doubt the best list of comps yet.
Well-Beered Englishman says:
February 8, 2013 at 10:14 am
I was preoccupied enjoying the name Jonathan Schoop. Schoop Schoop Schoop Schoop.
Dan Szymborski says:
February 8, 2013 at 10:54 am
I’ve got bad news for you, my English friend. It’s pronounced Scope.
HawkeyeCub says:
February 8, 2013 at 11:39 am
Wow, no coming back from oblivion for Jair, according the ZIPS.
Sam says:
February 8, 2013 at 12:27 pm
I’m surprised Chen projects to be a FIP-outlier after just one season.
Bip says:
February 8, 2013 at 12:37 pm
It was also true this time a year ago.
Bip says:
February 8, 2013 at 12:44 pm
Zips also decided that from this moment on he is Mark Buehrle.
BookWorm says:
February 8, 2013 at 1:08 pm
ZiPS clearly missed the trend in Jurrjens’ odd/even year BABIP numbers. Odd years are good for him, Check this out: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5556&position=P
Note: I don’t really think that this is a pattern that will hold, but it’s weird to see…
busch says:
February 8, 2013 at 1:23 pm
NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!
swieker says:
February 8, 2013 at 1:26 pm
Machado’s #1 comp is the guy who got put in the wood chipper in Fargo?
Mike Green says:
February 8, 2013 at 2:16 pm
I love the Chris Davis/Larry Sheets comp. Sheets had his 30 homer year in 1987 at age 27, but that they are both Baltimore left-handed designated hitters is fun.
To get persnickety, Davis probably has more pop but strikes out a lot more.
Greg S says:
February 8, 2013 at 4:03 pm
“Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.”
With this in mind, Ryan Adams (FA), Jim Thome (FA), Antoan Richardson (FA), Nick Johnson (retired), Jai Miller (retired), Endy Chavez (KCR), Bill Hall (LAA), Josh Barfield (FA), Randy Wolf (FA), Robert Hinton (FA), Miguel Socolovich (Carp), and Joe Saunders (SEA) are no longer in the Orioles organization.
Dan Szymborski says:
February 8, 2013 at 4:39 pm
FAs are always listed with their old team. And as noted previously, anyone that goes to Japan or retires get one final projection. Saunders signed after I sent to Cistulli, but the other two, I’ll make the changes now.
Dan Szymborski says:
February 8, 2013 at 4:40 pm
Hmm, strangely, I already had Chavez with KC, I just projected him a second time.
carson says:
February 8, 2013 at 4:50 pm
I think everyone should listen to antoan richardson say “cow poo poo” at least once in their life
Jimmy D says:
February 8, 2013 at 5:01 pm
AL east is up in the air this year with the O’s, Rays, Jays & Sox. Prolly not the Yanks though!
jimbo says:
February 8, 2013 at 5:31 pm
I couldn’t stop chuckling at the potential law firm that list could form…
Johnson Jones’n Hoes
GS says:
February 8, 2013 at 8:16 pm
You did great work!
Absolutely says:
February 8, 2013 at 9:00 pm
no kidding. I wish he played in the PCL (or the AL for that matter) this year. I’d totally love to hear him say it in person.
KS says:
February 9, 2013 at 1:01 am
Which should tell you something about sabermetrics.
BurleighGrimes says:
February 9, 2013 at 2:57 pm
One should really never count out the Yankees.
commenter #1 says:
February 9, 2013 at 4:39 pm
which is… what, exactly? do you or anybody else seriously think baltimore’s 1-run or extra inning performance is remotely repeatable?
Baltar says:
February 10, 2013 at 1:25 pm
I didn’t make this up. In the course of telemarketing in Orange County, CA, a few years ago, I called this business: Flexible Black Hose.
Russ says:
February 11, 2013 at 3:45 pm
Yeah I don’t get it. Chen K’d 7.2 per 9 last year (18.8%), but Zips expects the K rate to drop to 4.86 per 9 (12.7%)? I guess Zips really thinks 2012 was an outlier. I would have expected the system to weigh MLB performance more heavily than what happened overseas, but that is clearly not the case.