FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Mike Napoli needs to be updated.

    Comment by TKDC — February 12, 2013 @ 10:27 am

  2. Seems the crowd is smarter than a lot of national pundits.

    Comment by maqman — February 12, 2013 @ 10:37 am

  3. It seems like the crowd is a lot smarter than a number of G.M.s who rush into hasty decisions. Maybe Drayton Moore should crowd source all of his roster moves before actually making them?

    Comment by Dubes — February 12, 2013 @ 10:47 am

  4. Looking at the notable FA’s left, it’s pretty slim pickings…what are we thinking Carlos Lee will get now? 1 year, 3 mil? Kotchman, 1 year, 2 mil?

    Comment by Jason B — February 12, 2013 @ 11:09 am

  5. The crowd’s prediction for Bourn actually isn’t half bad: 4.7 years means 4 or 5, so it’s $14.3 vs $12, which is a 20% error.

    Comment by Mr Punch — February 12, 2013 @ 1:34 pm

  6. Just because these were the contracts signed doesn’t mean they are accurate, i.e. “good”, contracts. There is no “smart” or “dumb” regarding this information. The only thing the above proves is that the fans and GMs are mostly on the same page. Time will tell as to whether the fans/GMs were right or wrong.

    Comment by GMD — February 12, 2013 @ 2:32 pm

  7. It stands to reason that the higher the AAV the higher the difference. It would be good to tabulate the dAAV/aAAV to get an idea of the error rate. I think it will make the crowd projections look even more impressive!

    Comment by DrEasy — February 12, 2013 @ 3:32 pm

  8. I still find it amusing that the Fangraphs crowd thought Delmon Young would score an AAV of close to $8M.

    Comment by Pinstripe Wizard — February 12, 2013 @ 4:51 pm

  9. Shouldn’t overall daav be calculated as average of absolute value? The way it’s currently calculated means the average difference will be close to zero regardless of how much accuracy varied.

    Comment by Lot — February 12, 2013 @ 7:37 pm

  10. Smart about reading the market, not evaluating players. Time will tell whether Guthrie will be effective in KC, but we can already say that Moore misread what his market value was.

    Comment by Charlotte — February 13, 2013 @ 1:49 am

  11. Or use RMS or any metric that can actually be used for a data spectra that contains negative and positive values.

    As it stands its pointless.

    Comment by yep — February 13, 2013 @ 10:38 am

  12. 20% error is not that bad, heh.

    Comment by yep — February 13, 2013 @ 10:39 am

  13. Here’s another way to look at the data, which might be especially helpful here where we have partial years predicted. I can’t seem to find it through searching, but Tango has posted before about a rule of thumb in equating contracts of multiple years. I believe that it was just adding the year number and the AAV value into one number.

    e.g. Say someone is looking for a 4 year, $40 million contract. With a $10M AAV, that would add to 14. So it would roughly equate to a 3 year deal for $33 million ($11M AAV), which also counts as a 14. Or a 5 year deal for $45 million. It’s a rough guide, but it seems to pass the smell test, and it gives another tool to compare the overall accuracy on deals where the consensus was split on the years.

    Comment by Newcomer — February 15, 2013 @ 6:08 pm

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