Just because these were the contracts signed doesn’t mean they are accurate, i.e. “good”, contracts. There is no “smart” or “dumb” regarding this information. The only thing the above proves is that the fans and GMs are mostly on the same page. Time will tell as to whether the fans/GMs were right or wrong.
It stands to reason that the higher the AAV the higher the difference. It would be good to tabulate the dAAV/aAAV to get an idea of the error rate. I think it will make the crowd projections look even more impressive!
Here’s another way to look at the data, which might be especially helpful here where we have partial years predicted. I can’t seem to find it through searching, but Tango has posted before about a rule of thumb in equating contracts of multiple years. I believe that it was just adding the year number and the AAV value into one number.
e.g. Say someone is looking for a 4 year, $40 million contract. With a $10M AAV, that would add to 14. So it would roughly equate to a 3 year deal for $33 million ($11M AAV), which also counts as a 14. Or a 5 year deal for $45 million. It’s a rough guide, but it seems to pass the smell test, and it gives another tool to compare the overall accuracy on deals where the consensus was split on the years.