# FanGraphs Baseball

1. Why would FG let you post these. Now, whenever they analyze a trade or acquisition we masses will shout “Bout what about in team x’s particular run environment?”

Great article, again.

Comment by Dan — February 13, 2013 @ 3:03 pm

2. Haha, thanks

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 13, 2013 @ 3:45 pm

3. Great series. I love these kinds of articles that dig into the math behind sabermetrics.

Comment by Hans — February 13, 2013 @ 4:02 pm

4. Glad to hear it, thanks!

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 13, 2013 @ 4:08 pm

5. Not to knock any of the other FG writers but I find your no-nonsense level of Mathing(tm) to be a refreshing break from some of the more pseudo-humourous posts that have been increasingly pervasive here. (I’m aware that the funny brings in the readers, and it was likely a humorous article which brought me here, I’m only advocating continually writing articles like these instead of relegating everything to the ‘guts’ pages.)

Congratulations again on your much-deserved place on the FG staff!

Comment by Oh, Beepy — February 13, 2013 @ 4:09 pm

6. There is actually a response to the “What about particular run environment x?” It goes like this: while the run value of the player’s performance will be lower/higher than expected in the current average environment, (1) half of all games played are on average in an average environment,(2) valuable skills are valuable in every environment and (3) the relative differences in those values is typically small. Then you say “the burden of proof is on you to show that these differences undermine the present analysis.”

Comment by philosofool — February 13, 2013 @ 4:24 pm

7. Just to clarify, the Runs/Game axis in the graphs is runs per TEAM per game, not Runs of Home Team plus Runs of Away Team, right?

Comment by philosofool — February 13, 2013 @ 4:25 pm

8. I’m not knocking anyone either, but I agree that too much jocularity tends to cause me to stop reading analytical articles. Sometimes I just want the data and the conclusions.

Comment by philosofool — February 13, 2013 @ 4:27 pm

9. Yup, you got it. This is about team run-scoring effects, not park effects (not directly, anyway).

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 13, 2013 @ 4:31 pm

10. By run environment, I mean a certain team’s run scoring, not park factors.

Also, it was a joke.

Comment by Dan — February 13, 2013 @ 4:33 pm

11. Hey, I attempted to be funny a few times in the article! Haha, thanks.

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 13, 2013 @ 4:36 pm

12. That was a joke?

I was a total bonehead to mention park factors, but the response, otherwise, is still valid.

Comment by philosofool — February 13, 2013 @ 6:36 pm

13. Fangraphs: One of the few sports sites with a reader base so serious that you are congratulated for being humorless.

Not entirely untrue though. I can find funny things all over the internet. I come here for baseball knowledge.

Comment by B N — February 13, 2013 @ 8:41 pm

14. Sorry, I’m saving all my funniest material on wOBA and BaseRuns for my comedy act at the improv tonight…

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 13, 2013 @ 9:04 pm

15. “Kevin Youkilis gets walked into a bar….”

Comment by Antonio bananas — February 14, 2013 @ 1:14 am

16. I think there’s something wrong here. As OBP falls (and therefore R/G) triples should become more valuable relative to singles, doubles, and especially walks, in the same way that HRs do, because runners from third are far more likely to score without a hit. Instead they’re nosediving. A walk maintaining its value as runs decrease better than a triple does is clearly wrong. Walks should be losing the most relative value of all the positive outcomes as the run environment decreases.

Comment by Tim — February 14, 2013 @ 6:56 am

17. I wasn’t trying to say it was devoid of humour!

Comment by Oh, Beepy — February 14, 2013 @ 7:03 am

18. I believe it is logical because triples get the most value from having runners on base. If you are in an environment with a very high obp, then it is very likely that a triple will drive in runners on base. Triples have the most to lose as obp goes down.

Comment by Dan — February 14, 2013 @ 7:46 am

19. R = 0.955 * ((OB – HR) * OB/PA + HR)

IMO, this is on par with E=MC^2

You get my vote for the Fields Medal

Comment by rotowizard — February 14, 2013 @ 8:09 am

20. Heh, yeah right. You know, thinking about it a little bit more, though, HR should stand alone and not be multiplied by 0.955. R = 0.934*(OB-HR)*OBP + HR makes more sense, and works a tiny bit better.

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 14, 2013 @ 2:47 pm

21. Hm, I think your idea is correct, but I don’t see how it disagrees with the charts. Triples do become more valuable relative to the lower on-base events as runs per game drops. A triple goes from being worth 2.9 times a walk at 10 runs per game, up to 4 times a walk at 1 run per game. Make that 1.8x to 3.1x, if you include the value of not making an out.

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 14, 2013 @ 2:57 pm

22. I’m not following the point of this. Is it something like…Given X environment, Y situation, do Z? Or does this just make you feel better about other assumptions that have been made regarding BaseRuns?

Comment by William Bean — February 14, 2013 @ 4:48 pm

23. An illustration of the main point is this: if you took two hitters with identical wOBAs (or wRC+), they won’t necessarily have the same value to a particular team. For example, the higher-OBP, lower-HR hitter of the two will be less valuable to a low-OBP team; the reverse will be true for a high-OBP team.

Comment by Steve Staude. — February 14, 2013 @ 5:16 pm

24. I laughed.

Comment by Baltar — February 15, 2013 @ 12:24 pm

25. I second this. All in favor?

Comment by Baltar — February 15, 2013 @ 12:25 pm

26. The jokes were farther over my head than the math but I enjoy the challenge presented by both.

Comment by Baltar — February 15, 2013 @ 12:27 pm

27. This is extremely important to a team that is trying to maximize value with a low budget. I’m wondering if the Rays and A’s already use this insight.

Comment by Baltar — February 15, 2013 @ 12:31 pm

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