FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. I’ve been wondering why LF was both the position that was the third-to-last resort (after DH and 1B) for the least athletic players (I feel like I’ve heard “might end up in left” as a bad thing on prospect reports) and also where teams stored their extra CF (Gardner, Trout). Now it seems like maybe the league is transitioning from one to the other.

    Comment by byron — February 15, 2013 @ 2:15 pm

  2. What is the number of defensive plays that each position makes? My gut says that LF should have more opportunities, since hitters tend to pull more than push, and there tend to be more righties than lefties.

    Comment by Kinanik — February 15, 2013 @ 2:35 pm

  3. Voldemort was pretty powerful, but I don’t think he was a very good left fielder.

    Comment by Jaack — February 15, 2013 @ 2:36 pm

  4. Actually, most fly balls tend to be hit to the opposite field. Ground balls are very pull heavy, but fly balls are the opposite. Last year, 60% of pulled balls were grounders, 20% were fly balls, and 20% were line drives. Meanwhile, the rates were 24% grounders, 53% fly balls, and 24% line drives for balls hit to the opposite field.

    http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=2&season=2012&month=21&season1=2012&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

    Comment by Dave Cameron — February 15, 2013 @ 2:46 pm

  5. These little, speed guys are playing left likely because of their weaker arm. Generally, RF and CF are for stronger armed fielders (RF especially). I would be curious to see how the Arm grades look. This should not be affected by other players around them like overall defense is, at least not as much.

    Comment by DD — February 15, 2013 @ 2:57 pm

  6. Couldn’t he just summon every ball hit to him?

    Comment by Jake — February 15, 2013 @ 3:24 pm

  7. Dave -

    First off, the split you linked blew my mind. Hard to believe there is such a disparity in GB/FB when you look at pull versus opposite.

    However, those % numbers don’t necessarily indicate that more balls hit to the outfield go to right field rather than left, as there are more righties than lefties. I would have no idea how to figure this out.

    Comment by Brian — February 15, 2013 @ 3:34 pm

  8. That’s what I was thinking, a lot of guys who would be in CF 10 years ago are in left now because more guys possess speed and arm-strength is sometimes determinant.

    If you think about it, range plays anywhere, as OF coverage can simply be adjusted by moving the outfielders, but length of necessary throws remains constant.

    Though the traditional move is putting the rangiest guy in center, there is really no reason a Bourn-type player couldn’t cover the left-most 45% of the outfield while CF takes 30% and RF 25% (those percentages for simplicity sake).

    Comment by Cus — February 15, 2013 @ 3:38 pm

  9. This is my instinct too. Speedy guys tend to be smaller, and thus tend to have weaker arms.

    The one thing you could compare would be the Arm component of UZR, though that of course only goes back so far.

    Comment by Ben Hall — February 15, 2013 @ 3:49 pm

  10. That’s assuming batted balls are evenly distributed. If most fall between the LFer’s normal spot (middle of LF) and same for RF, then CF is where the rangiest guy should be.

    Comment by DD — February 15, 2013 @ 3:51 pm

  11. The PA split last year was 54/46 for RHBs, so it’s not that big of a deal.

    46,000 PAs from RHBs, 39,000 from LHBs. Once you take out the BB/HBP/K/HRs, it’s more like 32,000/27,000. There just aren’t nearly enough extra RHB plate appearances to make up for the big difference in pull/opposite fly ball rate.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — February 15, 2013 @ 3:57 pm

  12. 2013 Oakland Athletics Outfield:

    Coco Crisp, Chris Young, Josh Reddick, and Yoenis Cespedes.

    That is all.

    Comment by Danmay — February 15, 2013 @ 3:57 pm

  13. First PEDs, now this…

    Comment by JMonkey — February 15, 2013 @ 4:13 pm

  14. Well, any outfield would look great if you played 4 guys in it…

    Comment by Adrock — February 15, 2013 @ 5:21 pm

  15. You can’t look at percentages and claim it proves the whole. What your split shows us is that when a player hits the ball to the opposite field they tend to hit a fly ball. It doesn’t prove they hit more fly balls to the opposite field than they do when pulling it. If I hit 100 opposite-field balls and 90% are fly balls but I hit 1000 pull balls and 50% are fly balls, I still hit 410 more pull fly balls, even though that is a smaller percentage of the total.

    To see the actual totals, I took your custom chart, added hits, then divided H/BABIP to determine the number of balls in play. Then I multiplied that by the percentage to see the total number of balls in play that were LD/GB/FB.

    According to my calculations, there was actually about 600,000 more opposite-field fly balls than pull fly-balls. However, there was around 300,000 more pull line-drives than opposite filed line-drives. Honestly, when considering the defensive ability of an OF, you are worried more about the guy’s ability to run-down a hard line drive than his ability to catch a lazy opposite-field flyball. Thus, since your LF is more likely to see a hard-hit line drive to the gap, there is a defensive reason to have a faster and better fielder in LF.

    Comment by Cozar — February 15, 2013 @ 5:22 pm

  16. small person does not mean weak arm. just ask the pitcher Billy Wagner, as he “tosses” you a fastball in the upper 90′s

    Comment by Cidron — February 15, 2013 @ 5:28 pm

  17. perhaps not.. 1991 detroit tigers.. Pete Incaviglia, Rob Deer, Lloyd Moseby, Tony Phillips. Sure, great at the plate (generating a good breeze with the bats) but, I doubt you want them near a baseball glove, let alone running routes in the outfield to catch balls.

    Comment by Cidron — February 15, 2013 @ 5:34 pm

  18. While I respect that it is certainly possible that most fly balls are hit to the opposite field, your evidence does not prove this. The result is easily obtainable by reducing the number of opposite field ground balls drastically, thus, while 53% of balls to the opposite field are fly balls and only 20% to the pull side, there are still a greater number of pulled fly balls because there are more than 2.something times more pulled balls than balls hit to the opposite field. Again, not disputing the original assertion, simply pointing out that the evidence is not sufficient.

    Comment by David — February 15, 2013 @ 5:51 pm

  19. I think Mike Scioscia is the person to ask about this article.

    The Angles will have 3 CF next year. I believe the plan is to play Trout in LF and Hamilton in RF. So the question is, will Hamilton be in RF because he has the stronger arm (leaving LF for Trout), or will Trout be in LF because he is a better fielder (leaving RF for Hamilton)?

    If Bourjos doesn’t hit and they end up playing Trumbo in the OF a lot

    Comment by Cozar — February 15, 2013 @ 5:53 pm

  20. ooops, didn’t finish that thought. If Trumbo is put in the OF long-term, would he be in LF with Hamilton in RF, or would Hamilton take LF?

    Comment by Cozar — February 15, 2013 @ 5:54 pm

  21. …With his non-dominant hand

    Comment by David — February 15, 2013 @ 5:55 pm

  22. Trumbo would be in LF, Hamilton in RF. You have a shift of the OF to the left so Trout covers 35%, Hamilton 35% and Trumbo 30%

    Comment by Chris — February 15, 2013 @ 6:08 pm

  23. A recent article here agonized over Greg Blanco in LF. Here is your explanation. Great defense and some OBP at $1.3.

    Comment by glib — February 15, 2013 @ 6:23 pm

  24. Okay, but why? Josh Hamilton has 270 games in LF compared to 70 in RF, so why would he put in RF instead of Trumbo?

    Comment by Cozar — February 15, 2013 @ 6:24 pm

  25. Hamilton is not a CFer. He shouldn’t play a single out there as long as Trout and Bourjos are on the roster and healthy.

    Comment by l1ay — February 15, 2013 @ 6:34 pm

  26. not if that 4th guy is delmon young

    Comment by MajorDanby — February 15, 2013 @ 7:11 pm

  27. I stand corrected. Thank you. Awesome data.

    Comment by Kinanik — February 15, 2013 @ 9:32 pm

  28. At least he was better looking than Bonds…

    Comment by Cory — February 15, 2013 @ 9:42 pm

  29. Wow. This is one of my biggest “how could I not ever notice that” moments as baseball fan.

    Comment by pitnick — February 15, 2013 @ 10:23 pm

  30. It’s actually kind of interesting if you look back at the late 70s/80s/early 90s. There was a massive spike (likely aided by guys like Rickey Henderson and Tim Raines). I kind of wonder if the “Steroid Era” brought a greater focus and kind of “delayed” a positional change that was already in progress.

    Comment by Mark Smith — February 16, 2013 @ 12:08 am

  31. The Bill James Historical Abstract has a terrific little essay that addresses this topic. It starts with the following:

    “Those who can throw but can’t run are right fielders,
    Those who can run but can’t throw are left fielders,
    Those who can do both are center fielders, and
    Those who can’t do either are first basement.”

    Basically, he claims that the fastest and slowest corner outfielders all end up in left field. Your worst/slowest outfielders end up in left because that’s where runners advance the least on them. If an outfielder moves okay and has an arm he goes to right, but if he’s blazing fast he can’t play right any more, because if he were blazing fast and could throw well enough to play right, he’d be playing center.

    I don’t know if it’s true that every center fielder can throw, but I think the biggest change has been advances in defensive metrics, such that the extremely slow outfielders no longer play left, but are either stuck at DH or given non-roster invites to spring training.

    Comment by Jon L. — February 16, 2013 @ 5:28 am

  32. *first basemen, of course.

    Comment by Jon L. — February 16, 2013 @ 5:29 am

  33. Johnny Damon had an arm like a limp noodle and he played solid CF defence for years

    Comment by J — February 16, 2013 @ 11:20 am

  34. Well with Gardner and Trout, I think it’s pretty easy because each team already had an established right fielder (Hunter and Swisher, respectively). Perhaps there are more outfields with shallower fences in left, thus requiring a weaker arm than right (Fenway, Petco, and Minute Maid park come to mind)?

    Comment by Brian — February 16, 2013 @ 11:29 am

  35. I am so glad that you published those numbers, Dave. I had always assumed, with most other people, that left-fielders got more chances than right-fielders, so I looked team-by-team at primary LF’s and primary RF’s to see how many chances each got. I was stunned to see that they were virtually equal.
    Now I know why.
    Based on your numbers, the better COF should play right.

    Comment by Baltar — February 16, 2013 @ 12:14 pm

  36. The only time arm difference matters for COF’s is the throw to 3B. I would guess (can’t prove) that the number of close throws to 3B would not be significant enough to determine that the RF should have the stronger arm. Also, a faster OF can get to the ball quicker, negating the need for an arm advantage.
    Probably the shape and dimensions of the outfield should be a major factor in determining COF assignment. (I realize I am now partly contradicting my comment above.)

    Comment by Baltar — February 16, 2013 @ 12:22 pm

  37. Accio baseball.

    Comment by Jay29 — February 16, 2013 @ 9:18 pm

  38. What’d limp noodles ever do to you?

    Comment by Snowman — February 16, 2013 @ 9:33 pm

  39. Jonny Gomes seiz haiii guiz wut abute mei

    Comment by brian — February 16, 2013 @ 11:57 pm

  40. Are big left fields more common than big right fields? It seems as though there are a lot of parks with big left fields or small right fields or both — PNC, Safeco, New Yankee Stadium — and not so many parks that are reversed. So it might make sense for teams to stick their rangiest fielders in left just because of the parks they play in.

    Comment by matt w — February 17, 2013 @ 11:16 am

  41. As a rule of thumb, RF is where you put your strongest arm (Ichiro, Vlad, Francoeur, Harper, ect) as it helps deter runners from taking the extra base from 2nd to 3rd on a ball hit to right. This isn’t an issue in left as the throw is much shorter, though there are some exceptions (Prado in LF and Heyward in RF).

    Also a misplayed ball in right can more easily be turned into a triple than one in left.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — February 17, 2013 @ 12:24 pm

  42. guys my non-stat opinion is that the brains building mlb roster are making run prevention a priority so instead of having the traditional power in the corners structure they are thinking defense first and then obp/slugging. Either way i have always thought that you dont need obp or power in specific positions on the field you need those things in specific spots in the lineup.

    If a have a 2b, a SS and a catcher who are plus middle of the line up producers i can have and speedy/highobp slap hitter in LF or RF and write his name at the top of the line up.

    Got my point?

    Sorry my english is not so good

    Comment by Jesus Mejia — February 17, 2013 @ 2:15 pm

  43. Yeah, I may have specifically been thinking of Damon when I said I don’t know whether every center fielder can throw. In fairness to Bill James, the abstract appears to have been mostly written after the ’99 season (then updated after 2000), and Damon had already been shifted to full-time left field in ’99 (and then split time again in ’00).

    Comment by Jon L. — February 17, 2013 @ 6:29 pm

  44. Atlanta and Boston are two stadiums off the top of my head that are bigger to RF, but this might be an interesting thing to look up.

    Comment by Mark Smith — February 17, 2013 @ 7:10 pm

  45. You’ve certainly got a point. The overall objective is to get the most talented/valuable player regardless of how it looks and whether it conforms to certain “profiles”. It is, however, interesting when positions take on a certain “persona” and then begin to change. These profiles arise for certain reasons, so it’s interesting to find that they begin to change somewhat. Are teams favoring something else for some reason? Is whatever they were looking for not found enough to fill that spot?

    Comment by Mark Smith — February 17, 2013 @ 7:14 pm

  46. Whitey Herzog had 3 CF’s in the OF for the Cards in a spacious park and won a WS with them.

    RF defense has usually been a priority for teams, while they’re willing to hide bad defensive players in LF.

    I’d suggest that these “trends” are more a matter of the ability of the player pool. The Indians fell into Bourne due to numerous circumstances that have been discussed. With their personnel it seemed logical to move Stubbs to RF, Swisher to 1B and Reynolds to DH. I doubt any of this was pre-conceived on their part. Right now in MLB thre is a srious lack of run producers, so teams tend to go with defense at 3B and RF as the hitters just aren’t there.

    I’d suggest looking at the Mariners who just got off of a 2 year binge trying to emphasize defense, and it failed miserably. Rather then take a balanced approach to the situation, as say a fundmentalist like Branch Rickey would take, Zduriencik and Wedge have taken a totally reactionary approach and now have 3 or 4 DH’s in their starting line-up.

    With so much pressure to win now, MLB teams will try anything rather then attempt to build a balanced team.

    Comment by Ben — February 17, 2013 @ 8:28 pm

  47. Why is Michael Brantley advertised as a “good center fielder”? According to UZR he’s never had a + defensive season, he’s only had one + by TZ according to Baseball Reference and according to FanGraphs Brantley has been worth 3.2 WAR over 4 seasons(-0.5, -0.6, 1.5 and 2.7). So why is he a good center fielder?

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — February 18, 2013 @ 1:20 am

  48. Exception to the rule? Also, as was pointed out; he shifted back to CF because well, Manny.

    Comment by jason — February 18, 2013 @ 9:34 am

  49. yeah, Kimbrel’s under 6 ft. but i imagine he could make whatever throw was necessary.

    Comment by scott — February 18, 2013 @ 11:06 am

  50. you should have posted graphs for the league as a whole imo.

    the ISO for the entire league has gone down and it’s likely baserunning has improved for the larger population.

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 18, 2013 @ 5:22 pm

  51. I see this was included in the article though would have been interesting to see pretty visuals.

    Comment by jsp2014 — February 18, 2013 @ 5:23 pm

  52. Dave,

    What percentage of balls are pulled versus hit the other way?

    Thanks

    Comment by Herbalist — February 19, 2013 @ 2:50 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Current ye@r *

Close this window.

0.204 Powered by WordPress