Or give them a way to play Coghlan at his natural position. Coghlan should be an upgrade both defensively and offensively.
Comment by DavidCEisen — November 12, 2009 @ 12:18 pm
I’m hearing a lot of different arbitration numbers over the last few days, ranging from $7.5M to the $9M mark Dave just posted.
I projected Uggla as a 3.5 WAR player, and at $8M/$10M over the next two years, that would be worth $14M in surplus. At Dave’s The issue of course is what team is willing to pay the market rate for Uggla’s wins and has a need at second/third base.
If you don’t regress Coghlan’s offensive numbers, yes. But I think they’re more likely to be even in terms of offensive contribution. Defensively you’re almost assuredly correct, though Uggla’s numbers aren’t as bad as advertised.
Arbitration awards go up faster than that, Michael. They’re almost always 50%+ raises, and often closer to 100%. Garrett Atkins was last year’s version of Uggla, and he went from $4.4M to $7.1M, a 61 percent raise.
Uggla’s almost certainly going to get north of $8 million in arbitration this year, probably closer to $9 million. Next year, he’s looking at ~$14 million or so.
3.5 WAR for Uggla is also a bit overly generous, given his age and skillset.
I’m not well-versed in arbitration salary dealings, so I’ll take your word on the $9M, Dave. Is there a good 3rd-year comparison out there that we can consider?
As far as the projection, that’s based on a simple Marcels-projection with a slight age adjustment. I don’t expect the bat to fall off, though in subsequent years this will likely be the case. I ran my defensive projection as 5/4/3/2, 75% on UZR and 25% on the Fans Scouting Report (except 2009, where I did not have data converted to the proper scale), and 75 games of average for regression. I didn’t count age, but dropping it five runs puts him at around -9, which is what I believe most people qualitatively would put Uggla at.
That being said, if the salary projections are really that bad, then I would agree that Uggla’s value would be shot in terms of a second year.
“This appears to be a case of selling a year too late.”
And this article, while well-written, funny, and accurate, appears to be a case of “Hindsight is 20-20”. The Marlins thought they’d contend this year. Between the game’s second best player (Hanley), a duo of aces (J. Johnson and the real, FIP-valued Ricky Nolasco), and a solid core of hitters, the organization felt they had the talent to contend. Did it seem that absurd after their 11-1 start? Or when they swept Philly and took two of three from Colorado in early August, putting them in the thick of two playoff races?
Dave, the Marlins didn’t make it, they’re definitely not gonna get the value from Uggla that they would’ve last year, but they were banking on contention this season. When you’re payroll is equal to that of one Yankee player, it’s not often that you have the opportunity to be in a pennant race, so the upside of keeping Uggla this year was greater than trying to ship him off at his highest value. In my humble opinion, of course.
There aren’t any great comps for Uggla as 5+ service time guys. Most good players agree to a multi-year contract before they get to that point. Still, we do have some examples, such as Xavier Nady last year getting a 91 percent raise.
While I’m not sure you’re right about this, you do make a good point. Many teams would have kept Uggla for exactly this reason. Of course, the Marlins ownership is so slimy I’m not sure I’d think they were among them, but some teams would have acted this way and I don’t *know* for certain that the Marlins wouldn’t.
Comment by Fresh Hops — November 12, 2009 @ 1:32 pm
Willingham is an overrated player; his defense does a lot to cancel his offense and he never plays a full season. Uggla’s defense may be questionable, but at least it’s questionable against a field of good defenders (Second basemen) and not lousy defenders (corner outfielders.)
Comment by Fresh Hops — November 12, 2009 @ 1:34 pm
Willingham’s been worth at least 2+ WAR four years running; he made less than $3 million this year. The Marlins had a total of four 2+ WAR players this year (Cody Ross was fifth at 1.9). Somehow, I get the feeling Willingham could have been useful on that team for $3 million.
Bill James’ projection system is also ridiculously bullish on players age 25 and under. His prospect projections are way out of whack with the rest of the projection systems out there, and not too much should be read into them.
It might if it is LF. Apparently there are some rumors that the Red Sox at least have talked about him there. Seems like an interesting idea to talk about but not sure how well it would actual work out.
Comment by walkoffblast — November 12, 2009 @ 1:49 pm
Bill James is generally very optimistic with young players. Projecting Coghlan to be nearly as valuable as Chase Utley offensively is pretty absurd IMO. The last time Utley had a wOBA below .391 was 2004, and Coghlan had a .372 wOBA with a .366 BABIP last season. For comparison, his career minor league BABIP is .326, and that is against defenses far inferior to those in the Major Leagues.
Of course it could be that he makes adjustments and maintains his batting average (which seems possible given his past performance), but I wouldn’t count on a .370+ wOBA out of him.
Uggla hardly seems to be a butcher defensively at 2B, why would a team be sure to move him off the position? Plus, wouldn’t the possible defensive improvement be cancelled out by the offensive positional adjustment from 2B to 3B?
There is no adjustment between 2B and 3B. According to most metrics, they’re viewed as equal positions in terms of production. The key is to see whether Uggla can handle the skillset at third base (strong arm, quick reactions) better than he did at second.
Cameron i get where you are coming from but i think you missed a few points. Uggla was having a career year and injured his shoulder just before the all-star game and went off to a horrible second half. The front office said that there will be trades to get better defensively and get more speed. The trade for Bonifacio was proof of this but we only got a backup player in return. The Marlins traded Jacobs because of his horrible defense and Willingham for his back issues. After giving up a lot of power Uggla was more important than the return we could have gotten. Also i think that Uggla”s stats this year are deceptive. He had the third lowest BABIP of all starting second basement and was hitting hard out all year long. He could have easily been a .265 or better hitter.
Also, while 2B and 3B may have the same defensive value, that does not mean that they have the same defensive requirements. 3Bs presumably require less range but better arms. If those are qualities that better match Uggla then it would make sense to move him there.
Comment by Toffer Peak — November 12, 2009 @ 2:46 pm
This appears to be a case of hindsight being 20/20.
Or compare Uggla’s first half OPS (.769) to his second half OPS (.867).
Comment by DavidCEisen — November 12, 2009 @ 3:57 pm
Last year Uggla was a 5 win player, Cody Ross a 4 win player, and Jorge Cantu a 3 win player. All of those guys dropped off this year, I think for a total one year loss of about 5 wins. I don’t have each in front of me as I write this, but I think that approximation is roughly accurate.
The Marlins won 87 games this year. Philly won 93, Colorado 92. If those guys gave the kind of production they gave last year, hell, if even if they regressed by a total of two wins, then Florida’s in the race until the final week of the season. Any way you slice it, that’s contention.
As it is, Florida contends about every sixth year (ask Cleveland or the Yankees). Do I believe in stupid patterns like a team will win every nth year? No. But for a team with very little spending capacity, when you have a shot, even an inkling of a shot, it’s worth taking.
How? Every factor that Dave mentioned was perfectly knowable (and known) last offseason.
Awful defense? UZR didn’t hate his defense in ’08, but his ’07 number was awful, and that gelled with what scouts had said about his glove. I’m going with check.
Uggla’s not a great bet to repeat a 5-win season? Well, he beat his previous career-best wOBA by 27 points, and his BABIP was 23 points above his career average to that point despite no noticeable change in his batted ball rates. Check
Going to be 30 in a year’s time? I’m gonna give the Marlins’ brass the benefit of the doubt and say they know that 29 + 1 = 30.
Going to cost more in a year? Players universally get raises in arbitration if they play anywhere near their established rate of performance. Check.
What exactly do we know about Dan Uggla now that we couldn’t have predicted in the winter of 2008?
It is absolutely pathetic how cheap the marlins are. They won’t even spend on good players. The MLB total payroll/revenue was 45.63% last season. For the Marlins, it was 26.50%. In 2008, it was an even less at 17%. The marlins can’t spin gold faster than Jeff Loria pockets the $$.