The third wave. The 69, 70 Mets had Koosman, Seaver, Ryan, McGraw, Matlack. The 80’s Mets had Gooden, Fernandez, Darling, Aguleira. I wonder how Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Snydergard etc. will match up. Lots of options. If the cost controlled pitching works out they should be looking to strike in the free agent market in the next couple years to fill some holes in the outfield etc..
Comment by Spit Ball — February 27, 2013 @ 8:51 am
As a Met’s fan, I’ve been following their prospects cloely for the past couple of years. That’s why I’m wondering why Danny Muno isn’t on here? I know he had a 50 game suspension, but someone who can get on base at a .380 clip, play solid up the middle defense, and hit for a little pop, isn’t on here at all. Is it just me that likes Muno, or was he mysteriously left off?
Marco Scutaro upside to me means at least being ranked. Power is not his thing at all, it’s just a nice bonus. I think he is a league average 2nd baseman for a team that hasn’t had a good 2nd baseman since Roberto Alomar. I might be wrong there, but you get my point.
On d’Arnaud, you predict 15 homers for him in his prime. There seems to be some disagreement among scouts as to how much power he’ll eventually show. BA gave him plus power, which I would suppose is more than 15 homers. Just wondering, why do you have a little less faith in his eventual power?
Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — February 27, 2013 @ 9:55 am
I’m guessing you don’t share my concerns about Wheeler pitching out of the zone so much. He depends a lot on getting hitters to chase, and while his slider can make that happen even at the major league level, I have to think they’ll lay off unless he’s also throwing it for strikes. I’m expecting Zack to be a disappointment compared to the other top pitching prospects.
Comment by jdbolick — February 27, 2013 @ 10:02 am
He’s 23 and he’s in high A. That, in itself, suggests he doesn’t have league-average as a likely outcome.
” I wonder how Wheeler, Harvey, Niese, Snydergard etc. will match up. ”
Maybe we can call them Generation K-Squared as they follow in the footsteps of Paul Wilson, Jason Isringhausen, and Bill Pulsipher.
Comment by Pessimistic Mets Fan Guy — February 27, 2013 @ 10:52 am
You should place Muno’s age and level in context. He wasn’t drafted out of high school and hasn’t languished in the minor leagues. He was drafted in the 8th round in 2011, played the end of that season in low-A and played half a season at high-A in 2012 before being suspended. He may very well been promoted to AA later in the season, which would be hardly a slow advancement.
None of that is to say I especially like Muno as a prospect – I just don’t think we should be so dismissive for being on a post-college track that seemed typical and not slow.
Comment by Jonathan Sher — February 27, 2013 @ 11:01 am
1) What is the difference between command and control?
2) Where would Matt Harvey rank on this list if he had pitched a few less innings and qualified as a rookie?
Gotta give Alderson a ton of credit. The system, to put it bluntly, sucked when he got here. It was a bottom five system that had almost no impact talent outside of Harvey. Now it’s a fringe top 10 system with arms galore. Finally it looks like we have something to be excited about and proud of besides our play-by-play announcers.
I know he’s not elite or anything, but man Cory Vaughn gets zero love. 23 hr in the FSL with a good walk rate isn’t too shabby. Obviously contact issues hold him back quite a bit, but I’m surprised at how many people write him off.
You have to consider plus for a catcher is a little different than plus for a 1B or RF… As well, ABs are taken into consideration with counting stats… I would say he has a chance to have an ISO rate in his prime of .170-.190, so above-average to fringe-plus.
There isn’t a ton of concern among talent evaluators I’ve spoken to… and he’s still young. So, no I’m not overly concerned. He’ll need to make adjustments as hitters adjust to him, without doubt, but he has the talent to do so.
The only real surprise here is Nimmo at #10. IIRC, KLaw had considered him for his top 100 but just missed. Sickels also hinted that he’ll be a top 100 guy when his list comes out and I think he’s already on his top 50 position player list. I’m glad to see Flores is getting some love. It seems like everybody is overlooking the huge year he had last year and instead focusing on the struggles he had as a teen.
Nimmo was definitely a tough guy to rank but there were players I liked better in the system and he’s still very raw. I’m not comfortable with his offensive projection if he does move to a corner. He could be a big mover on the list if he makes significant improvements this year.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong, but I always thought the difference between command and control is a matter of degree. Control is throwing strikes vs. being wild. Command is being able to move the ball in and out and have accuracy WITHIN the strike zone (think Greg Maddux as the ideal).
Comment by Trotter76 — February 27, 2013 @ 1:04 pm
I’m not being defensive, but I find myself to be low on the Mets group overall. I’m certainly no higher on the Top 3 than anyone else of note. What gave you the impression I was high on them?
But command is not simply being able to place the ball within the strike zone. It’s being able to place the ball anywhere you want to and with the attributes of the pitch in question — getting the proper movement and ball speed. If a batter swing at pitches low and away and you are a right-hander throwing a slider, you want the break to take the ball wide of the plate to reduce the chance of contact. If a batter can resist climbing the ladder on a fastball you want to throw it above the strike zone.
Comment by Jonathan Sher — February 27, 2013 @ 2:55 pm
Not a fan of the list after 11, but mostly because the system has a lot of potentially interesting guys (arms mostly) that could slot in there, the difference between 15 and 25 isn’t huge
Fair enough. I’m relying on anecdotal evidence rather than voluminous statistical analysis, but it seems to me that guys who spend a lot of time out of the zone struggle to make those adjustments at the major league level and thus end up being “disappointments” more than the guys who come up painting the black.
This is a weird comment, cuz I found myself thinking that JD was fairly bearish on the Mets system compared to other things I’ve read.
Comment by BurleighGrimes — February 27, 2013 @ 5:37 pm
it isn’t really a surprise. Nimmo is very raw and there is some disagreement about the tools and he’ll need to show the ability to hit LHed pitching before he gets into the elite reaches of prospect lists. That said, he has a lot of time to get there.
Where would you rate Fulmer’s upside compared to Montero’s?
Comment by Sam Saskin — February 27, 2013 @ 6:05 pm
27. Indians, Twins and Yankees remain.
Comment by Marc Hulet — February 27, 2013 @ 6:22 pm
what about Stephen Matz?
Comment by Paul Tomas — February 27, 2013 @ 7:57 pm
jdbolick, I think you’re the only one with concerns that extreme. Wheeler can definitely tighten up his control but he’s already got the velocity and movement to be an average to above average starter today. Well, maybe in a week.
I don’t see how that makes the Mets better when Wright was arguably the best defensive third baseman in baseball last season. I know he was pretty bad for a few years, but he was, by metrics and the eye test, phenomenal last season. And we have no idea how well Flores would play third in the majors.
Ok, the fact that he’s not done enough in college to be drafted higher than the 8th round, and hasn’t advanced beyond high A by the age of 23 suggests he isn’t likely to be more than a utility player at best. There’s a load of research supporting the idea that players who are significantly behind the age-curve rarely have much of an impact. Going to college isn’t some sort of unusual career path that could change that – he isn’t someone like Gattis where there are, at least, reasons to assume that there might be greater potential.
Two outfielders to watch out for are Corey Vaughn and Juan Lagares. Vaughn was a 20-20 guy last year, and while the average isn’t there, the OBP is. He could move quick this year if he hits in Binghamton. Lagares is their next righthanded hitting CF in waiting if Cowgill doesn’t work out. He seems like he can play in CF and has some speed and good contact ability with some doubles power.
Comment by commenter #1 — February 28, 2013 @ 4:20 pm
Vaughn has a long way to go! He will be lucky to make it to ny! He might lead the organization in strikeouts this year when he faces AA pitching! He would barely make my top 50 nevermind top 15! If Matz stays healthy this year, he could be top 5 next year! A lefty with his stuff is very exciting! Very excited to see Lupo stateside this year too!
We all realize that “top pitching prospects” often fail. My contention is that the ones who were not derailed by injury failed most often not because their stuff was less effective than believed, but because they couldn’t command the stuff they had. To me, Wheeler profiles exactly as that kind of high volatility prospect, which isn’t to say that he won’t be a Cy Young winner but that his range of potential major league outcomes is much wider and much more concerning than a Shelby Miller.
I haven’t found an average age yet for players whop attended college but it would surely be higher than 24.4 — I would guess between 25 and 26.
In May, 2012, when Muno was suspended after a strong start at high-A, he was 23.25 years old. But for the suspension, he seemed on a path that would have had him promoted to AA before the end of the season. That would have placed him on a track to debut in Sept. 2014, at the age of 24 .5, barely over the MLB average for debut age and almost certainly younger than the average debut for a college player.
When you compare Muno to other college players drafted in 2011 in the 7th or 8th round, only 3 of 40 made it to AA and one of those played 8 games. Thirteeen of 20 in the 7th round didn’t make it to high-A and two more just got a cup of tea there. But for Muno’s suspension, he may have been among the few to make AA so soon after the 2011 draft.
Even among 3rd-round college picks in 2011, 15 of 21 didn’t make it past high A, including 9 who didn’t make it past A-ball.
Of course it’s a long shot for anyone picked after the first couple of rounds to become even average players in MLB. And I am not in any way arguing Muno will be an exception. I’m simply pointing out that for a college draftee he’s ahead of most others picked around him and but for his suspension he would have reached a higher level than most college players picked 5 round earlier.
Comment by Jonathan Sher — February 28, 2013 @ 5:52 pm
Love Matz, but the clock is ticking on him after 2 lost years. He absolutely needs to stay healthy this year or his future isn’t likely to be in the Mets organization. They are going to have a serious 40 man roster crunch over the next couple years
Nice list. I would say the top 13 guys are mostly consensus top 15 guys here, so no surprises there, and Plawecki as a high pick last year seems a sensible choice at 14. So nothing as controversial as in 2009 when you ranked Ruben Tejada at #7 while leaving off such obvious future studs as Reese Havens and Kyle Allen. :)
Leathersich is an interesting choice at #15, though. I generally see a good number of games in St. Lucie, but I guess last year I just got bored and left way too many games before the end. Leaving baseball games early, dang I feel like I’m tunring into my father. Anyway, I don’t really have much an opinion on Leathersich. But you may be right there.
Other guys who might have been interesting choices though:
Hansel Robels – seems to have impressed a lot in the NYPL, especially towards the end, and earned protection on Mets 40-man. Size and delievery may still point to pen role though, so I can see preferring the lefty.
Phil Evans – another guy people liked from the Brooklyn club, could profile as decent all around 2B, and some now think he might even stick at SS.
Matt Den Dekker – issues making contact likely limit him to a bench role, but he plays a good CF and has enough tools to maybe hit enough if he can make some adjustments in AAA.
Steven Matz – high upside arm with limited track record returned from TJ surgery last season and is set to anchor the Mets Savannah (A-) rotation in 2013.
Gabriel Ynoa – 2nd youngest SP in the NYPL last year, ranked 5th in FIP. Should join Matz in Savannah rotation. Maybe doesn’t yet profile as more than #4 SP, but one to watch.
German Ahmed Rosario – tough to rank a guy who hasn’t played yet, but he did get the top international signing bonus this year. So worth a mention.
Wilfredo Tovar – I see people mentioning Muno in the comments, but Tovar was almost 3 years younger, had a similar high OBP in ST. Lucie, actually plays a solid MLB SS, and earned the promotion to AA. Downside is not much upside. He still looks a little like a poor man’s Ruben Tejada. But I think he could still end up a similar player.
Just not enough info about him in pro ball at this point to rate him in the top 15. On longer lists, he has been landing in the 20-30 range from what I’ve seen.
Comment by BurleighGrimes — March 4, 2013 @ 2:05 am
that;s why I said “to my knowledge”. I forgot Alfanzo. Honestly, the only people I could remember off the top of my head were Jose Valentin, Luis Castillo, Brad Emaus, Dnaiel Murphy, and Alomar. Plus, I didn’t say Alomar was good as a Met, he was atrocious. I just said he was a good 2nd baseman, which I’d like to see you try to argue.
What the Mets need is an ownership other than the Wilpons.
There’s a real problem in that Murphy, Davis, and Parnell will get expensive (if they’re any good, if they’re not, fringy contention is unlikely) just as some of the current young guys might bloom. The Mets will need two FA OFers to contend, given the complete lack of a bat in the system.
In short, where are the wins coming from? With a payroll under 100m the Mets have essentially no chance.