FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Why are they not on the leaderboards yet?

    Comment by Ben — February 19, 2013 @ 10:07 am

  2. You broke the Googles, you bastards:

    We’re sorry.
    Our servers are busy. Please wait a bit and try again.

    Find out more at the Google Docs Help Center.

    Comment by Sandy Kazmir — February 19, 2013 @ 10:23 am

  3. A “thanks” would have been probably the more socially acceptable response.

    Comment by JLeddy — February 19, 2013 @ 10:24 am

  4. I can’t open this at work, but does this include the defensive ratings, or is it the same that Dan released via Twitter on Saturday?

    And yes, thanks!

    Comment by Derb — February 19, 2013 @ 10:28 am

  5. Thanks for the hard work I have been looking forward to this. Hope to be able to open it soon..Google is slipping

    Comment by jeff — February 19, 2013 @ 10:31 am

  6. Thanks! This would be even more awesome if it were in the leaderboards section instead of blowing out the bandwidth limit imposed by Google Docs ;)

    Comment by David — February 19, 2013 @ 10:34 am

  7. Mate, this isn’t the rotary club. It was a simple question. Love having the Fangraphs Comment Police around though.

    Comment by Ben — February 19, 2013 @ 10:35 am

  8. The proverbial tipped oil tanker or conveniently placed truck of ether that exploded the internet superhighway.

    Comment by Benzedrine — February 19, 2013 @ 10:38 am


    Comment by Matt Hunter — February 19, 2013 @ 10:44 am

  10. 8 out of 10 people can’t pronounce Szymborski.
    9.6 out of 10 people find ZIPS very useful.

    Comment by Nick — February 19, 2013 @ 10:49 am

  11. For those that are curious, I will be adding Zips to my projection aggregator as soon as I can download the data and connect all the links and calcs. I hope folks find it useful:

    Comment by Sandy Kazmir — February 19, 2013 @ 10:52 am

  12. Kudos to the first person that can get into the google doc and share the pitcher data with me :-)

    Comment by Hoppy — February 19, 2013 @ 10:53 am

  13. Right, it isn’t the rotary club, it’s just a bunch of people who provide stuff that you really want FOR FREE. The least you can do is be polite.

    Comment by philosofool — February 19, 2013 @ 11:41 am

  14. Can anyone get this into a CSV or XLS doc and provide a torrent for it? A good self reinforcing network should actually allow us to distribute this without causing google to lie that it’s servers are down. (They are not down, they just don’t like me anymore.)

    Comment by philosofool — February 19, 2013 @ 11:44 am

  15. Are you implying that the Googles, they do nothing?

    Comment by Paul Clarke — February 19, 2013 @ 11:46 am

  16. This worked so much better on BBTF.

    Comment by Vince — February 19, 2013 @ 11:51 am

  17. Will career projections be posted?


    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — February 19, 2013 @ 12:19 pm

  18. dude, sweetness. Thanks

    Comment by Dave S — February 19, 2013 @ 12:23 pm

  19. I created the torrent file, now if only I weren’t so stupid about ways to share it.

    Comment by philosofool — February 19, 2013 @ 12:40 pm

  20. For entertainment purposes only, the following shows the number of wins that would be projected for a team using Dan Szymborski’s projection of 45 for an all-replacement level team and the total rounded WAR from the depth chart for each team published in FanGraphs.
    Note: This is invalid for reasons Dan has explained many times.
    Note: The demise of the AL East has been greatly exaggerated.

    AL East

    Blue Jays 90
    Rays 86
    Yankees 85
    Red Sox 83
    Orioles 78

    AL Central

    Tigers 92
    White Sox 84
    Royals 83
    Indians 81
    Twins 65

    AL West

    Angels 96
    Rangers 88
    Athletics 78
    Mariners 70
    Astros 61

    NL East

    Nationals 92
    Braves 87
    Phillies 80
    Marlins 66
    Mets 64

    NL Central

    Reds 91
    Brewers 80
    Cardinals 76
    Cubs 75
    Pirates 75

    NL West

    Giants 88
    Dodgers 87
    D’backs 81
    Rockies 78
    Padres 70

    Comment by Baltar — February 19, 2013 @ 1:29 pm

  21. If the Cardinals win less than 76 games, I will construct an altar to ZIPS and sacrifice chickens to it.

    Comment by Nickname Damur — February 19, 2013 @ 1:39 pm

  22. While I figure out WTF’s going on with Google Docs, here’s a quickie ZiPS spreadsheet. Doesn’t have the DMB stuff or any ODDIBE, but hopefully it’ll tide people over until I can resolve the Docs issue.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — February 19, 2013 @ 2:06 pm

  23. 76 is *not* the ZiPS win projection for the Cardinals.

    Comment by Dan Szymborski — February 19, 2013 @ 2:19 pm

  24. Thanks!

    Comment by philosofool — February 19, 2013 @ 2:30 pm

  25. Is there an easy way to use the data from this wonderful spreadsheet to create wOBA projections?

    Comment by Kevin — February 19, 2013 @ 2:47 pm

  26. thank you!

    Comment by jeff — February 19, 2013 @ 3:28 pm

  27. Hi,
    Does anybody know how I could use these projections to make projections for a fantasy league using custom point values? Thanks!

    Comment by asdfasdf — February 19, 2013 @ 3:30 pm

  28. I’m aware of that, but still . . . virtually all of his other results seemed plausible.

    Comment by Nickname Damur — February 19, 2013 @ 3:49 pm

  29. Oh never mind, I figured it out.

    Comment by asdfasdf — February 19, 2013 @ 4:25 pm

  30. That was s simple question? You were really just interested in the reason behind the fact that they are not yet on the leaderboards? Apologies then, to me it seemed to be snide commentary.

    Comment by Train — February 19, 2013 @ 5:20 pm

  31. Any recommendations on how to use this spreadsheet to draft in a 5×5 roto? Do I just take this spreadsheet, add in a column for ADP and then pick players with the highest projection in the various categories relative to their ADP when it’s my turn to pick? (I’m assuming I can’t go by WAR since I believe it takes into account defense.)

    Comment by J — February 19, 2013 @ 5:30 pm

  32. Thanks muchly for the spreadsheet? Is there any chance zMLEs will also see the light of day?

    Comment by gnomez — February 19, 2013 @ 6:23 pm

  33. Miguel Cabrera is projected by ZiPs to win another Triple Crown…and I wouldn’t be surprised if he did.

    Comment by Jake — February 19, 2013 @ 7:23 pm

  34. How is it done?

    Comment by Jeff — February 20, 2013 @ 8:38 am

  35. Very low projection for # of games for Tulo. You have him in the Chase Utley range for # of games, I think that’s a bit low. I know he probably won’t play 160 but come on.

    Comment by CFG250 — February 20, 2013 @ 8:38 am

  36. Projections through custom point values that is.

    Comment by Jeff — February 20, 2013 @ 8:39 am

  37. Strasburg projected to have < 140 innings surprised me
    Is this because of an expectation of future coddling?

    Comment by Dolemite — February 20, 2013 @ 8:52 am

  38. No, it’s because ZiPS doesn’t “know” that he specifically had Tommy John, just that he has a history missing a lot of games and that he didn’t throw a whole lot of innings last year. It simply assumes, in general, that players who have missed a lot of time due to injury will probably miss more time, that guys who had a short leash last year will have a short leash again. It doesn’t make exceptions or consider particular reasons.

    Comment by NeilS — February 20, 2013 @ 11:00 am

  39. It was literally a question with no ulterior meaning! I was asking what the process happening right now is. I was not at all trying to say that Fangraphs had somehow shirked a responsibility to me or anyone else.

    Comment by Ben — February 21, 2013 @ 4:23 am

  40. good response… ty

    Comment by Dolemite — February 21, 2013 @ 4:56 pm

  41. can someone explain to me why these WAR numbers shouldn’t be used to project wins for a team if you use 45 wins as a baseline? i’ve seen this done several different times and it seems solid.

    Comment by andrew — February 21, 2013 @ 9:49 pm

  42. Sorry in advance because I am sure this has been asked 100 times, but despite all my google searches, I can’t find an answer..

    Whether it is through Fangraphs, zips, or through DMB website, does a DMB 2013 projection disk to download (or buy) still get released?

    Comment by Rob — February 24, 2013 @ 10:20 am

  43. Because ZiPS doesn’t consider actual playing time in it’s projections of players. Ex. Add up all the outs projected by ZiPS for each team and I’m pretty sure it will exceed 162*27 by a large margin.

    Comment by J — February 25, 2013 @ 5:01 pm

  44. Why doesn’t the ZIPS projections have Holds and Saves?

    Comment by faceplant247 — March 25, 2013 @ 11:35 am

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