FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Thank you for the article, and for your other writings on the site. That said, this piece was tough to read. There were a few egregious typos, sentences that can’t be parsed, and the narrative switching back and forth was confusing.

    I think it was an interesting topic, but I still don’t feel like I know anything more about Andrus’ bat than before I read it.

    Comment by Travis L — February 22, 2013 @ 3:05 pm

  2. BBRef pops up with shortstop offensive comps of Alan Trammell, Granny Hamner, Edgar Renteria and Ozzie Guillen.

    If you look at the names there and in the article, you would come to the conclusion that there is a pretty good chance that Andrus has 10-15 homer power (or an IsoP of .120-.140) by the time he is in his mid-to-late 20s. Whether it will be accompanied by even better plate control than he has now is a more dicey question; to my mind, that is the question. So far, he hasn’t made huge progress on that front, but there is plenty of time for him to do so. Ozzie Smith did at age 25.

    Comment by Mike Green — February 22, 2013 @ 3:12 pm

  3. I see the word “reasoynableness.” What is this word?

    Comment by Daniel — February 22, 2013 @ 3:24 pm

  4. I could see Elvis eventually getting to the 10-15 HR/year mark. Right now, he has a predominately GB/LD swing, which works well with his speed, but he has gotten noticeably stronger the last year or two and from the games I’ve watched (I know eyeball tests aren’t ideal when commenting on this site) it seems like the ball has a little more explosion when it leaves his bat. Add a little more loft into his swing, and I think a few extra HRs might come about.

    Comment by Eric Palmer — February 22, 2013 @ 4:32 pm

  5. I’m suprised at this comment. If you’ve read his other posts, how do you pick THIS one as the one worthy of spelling and grammatical errors? This was the best article yet in those respects.

    Comment by DD — February 22, 2013 @ 4:41 pm

  6. As a Ranger fan, a huge Andrus fan, and proponent of extending him, I don’t see his power developing much more.

    He bulked up last off-season, which cost him his prowess on the base paths, and based on the eye test and watching games it seemed like he was hitting more gappers. He deteriorated with the rest of the team as the season wore on thanks to our idiot manager but he still only ISO’d .100 pre-ASB which is worse than his .105 ISO from his rookie season (and career high).

    Comment by l1ay — February 22, 2013 @ 5:23 pm

  7. Sample size is too small to carry any meaning. Rife with typos.

    Comment by dave — February 22, 2013 @ 5:43 pm

  8. I wonder why the comps were limited to just shortstops. Why not look at all hitters with a similar profile? I don’t see why not, and it would broaden the sample size, something Dave the Commenter would appreciate.

    Comment by Andre the Angels Fan — February 22, 2013 @ 6:08 pm

  9. HaHa…….I almost crapped my pants when I saw that Mike Schmidt quote early this morning. Nice dig!

    Comment by shawnuel — February 22, 2013 @ 8:25 pm

  10. Is it really a big deal? Be reasoynable!

    Comment by Jon L. — February 22, 2013 @ 9:05 pm

  11. Extending Andrus is a good idea. Dispite the hype, odds are Profar won’t be as valuable as Andrus is.

    Comment by adohaj — February 22, 2013 @ 9:32 pm

  12. Players tend to mature 2-4 years after they come up, the age has little to do with it. Players who peak really young don’t have a 2nd spike when they are 27 and players who come up late don’t peak at 27, they peak later. Andrus is most likely what he has shown the past 2 years which is a mostly overrated speed only guy who hurts in as many categories as he helps.

    Comment by Ender — February 23, 2013 @ 12:06 am

  13. In a real baseball standpoint he probably raises his OBP over time and maybe even his SLG some but he follows it up with a decrease in BSR and UZR so he probably is also at peak value atm.

    Comment by Ender — February 23, 2013 @ 12:07 am

  14. That is an empty statement. You have no idea if Profar will be as valuable as Andrus. You’re only right insofar as Profar is still a prospect and the odds are always against a prospect being as valuable as a proven major-leaguer because of prospect attrition rates. But that is begging the question.

    Comment by ssj316 — February 23, 2013 @ 12:08 am

  15. Man, I wish I had an overrated speed only guy who put up 4+ WAR.

    Comment by Ruki Motomiya — February 23, 2013 @ 12:18 am

  16. Is there a fielding curve? I assume work has been done on this but I don’t think I’ve ever seen it. If someone can point me in the right direction, maybe send me a URL link, that would be great.

    Also, the only house I’ve ever owned was sold (by me) to a dude named Roger Metzger. Nice guy but he didn’t look like a former major league shortstop.

    Comment by Robbie G. — February 23, 2013 @ 1:58 am

  17. Well done. Subtle.

    Comment by Bob — February 23, 2013 @ 5:51 am

  18. He’s so overrated. How dare he be a top 5 SS over the last two years.

    Comment by l1ay — February 23, 2013 @ 12:24 pm

  19. You lost me at “only 4 seasons.” Why bother to write this article if that’s all you’ve got to compare to?

    Comment by Baltar — February 23, 2013 @ 12:25 pm

  20. The answer should be rather obvious and it would be to see if Profar could handle outfield duties for the year. Seriously, if he can play above average outfield then they have an excuse to rid themselves of Gentry and his disgrace to Texas offense.

    On the note of prospects, something tells me that Mike Olt is a straight 50/50 on coming out as Adam Dunn or Brandon Wood.

    Comment by derp — February 23, 2013 @ 12:27 pm

  21. I couldn’t agree less about Olt. It seems pretty clear to me he’s going to have an OBP around .330 and hit 25-30 home runs with good defense at third for pretty much his entire prime. Maybe it’s more like .310/25, or maybe it’s more like .350/35, but I think that’s your range of outcomes.

    Comment by byron — February 23, 2013 @ 2:33 pm

  22. Olt’s z-contact rate was really, really bad, not only in his short stint with the Rangers but in the minors as well. Swinging and missing at pitches outside of the strike zone can be corrected. Swinging and missing at pitches inside the strike zone is extremely worrisome.

    Comment by jdbolick — February 23, 2013 @ 5:08 pm

  23. Why limit this study to Shortstops? If we are looking at hitting skill, the fact that he happens to be a studly defender at shortstop seems irrelevant. You would get a longer list if you considered all positions.

    Comment by Spit Ball — February 23, 2013 @ 9:22 pm

  24. Over-rated and good are NOT the same thing. Andrus has been very good so far, esp. the last 2 seasons.

    But he can still be over-rated.(For example, during his peak years Ryan Howard was both good and over-rated.)So you don’t really refute the ‘Andrus is over-rated’ argument by saying he’s good.

    If he’s a 4 WAR guy and public perception is that he’s on par with a bunch of 8 WAR players…he’s over-rated. And good. I’m not about to say that I know what the public perception is, or if Andrus under- or over-performs it. But I do know that saying “he’s good” is a non sequitur when we’re talking about whether he’s overrated.

    (Sorry. This is a HUGE sports conversation pet peeve of mine.)

    Comment by KDL — February 24, 2013 @ 6:51 pm

  25. I agree completely with spitball.The point of the article was supposed to be how Andus’ bat would develop.The position he plays has nothing to do with his hitting ,and his relative speed has very little more to do with it than his position does . I think it would have been far more informative to have used a broader sample of comparisons by eliminating the position and the speed from your criteria. Only finding 4 comparables over the last 40 years makes it seem like Andrus is some sort of freak .

    Comment by Dirck — February 24, 2013 @ 7:00 pm

  26. If Furcal is the best comp for Andrus, as a Cardinals’ fan I wish we had the new version of Furcal rather than the old version.

    Comment by chuckb — February 25, 2013 @ 12:56 pm

  27. Empty but true

    Comment by adohaj — February 25, 2013 @ 5:19 pm

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