FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. It’s amazing how Colorado is ranked within the top half of the league in almost every position, but are projected to be one of the worst teams, due to awful pitching.

    Comment by Andrew Wolfe — March 18, 2013 @ 11:44 am

  2. The league average center fielder hit .264/.328/.414 (101 wRC+) last summer, so the offensive bar is relatively low.

    I’m missing something. I thought the league average wRC, by definition, was 100. CF is still a high value defensive position where many teams will put a player with less power. So why is slightly above average setting the offensive bar low?

    Comment by MikeS — March 18, 2013 @ 11:45 am

  3. I may be alone in this, but I think that all the teams from 18-21 are in a better place Centerfielderly than the DBacks, Reds or White Sox.

    Also you know its bad when you rank below a team that traded away their two best center fielders, both of who rank on the bottom half of this list. Sorry Mariners fans.

    Comment by Jaack — March 18, 2013 @ 11:49 am

  4. Have a tough time with the Bourn projection. Last four years, he’s averaged 5.0 WAR. Even if you pretend 2012 didn’t really happen, he averaged 4.5 WAR for three years before that. Yeah, his age starts with a 3 but debiting him down to 3.2 just seems absurd.

    Comment by Not even an Indians fan — March 18, 2013 @ 11:50 am

  5. 2013 Cool Names Power Rankings: Center Field
    1. Xavier Avery
    2. Coco Crisp
    3. Kirk Nieuwenhuis
    4. Darin Mastroianni
    5. Rogearvin Bernadina
    6. Shin-Soo Choo
    7. Starling Marte
    8. Jacoby Ellsbury
    9. Dexter Fowler
    10. Alejandro De Aza
    11. Leonys Martin
    12. Xavier Paul
    13. Gorkys Hernandez
    14. Quintin Berry
    15. Andrew McCutchen

    Xavier Paul is a cool name, but “Xavier Avery”, with its internal rhyming sound, is a truly remarkable accomplishment and an upset winner.

    Comment by Well-Beered Englishman — March 18, 2013 @ 11:50 am

  6. Angel Pagan feels so left out.

    Comment by Jaack — March 18, 2013 @ 11:53 am

  7. For the Blue Jays bit, you said that Rasmus was a flyball pitcher instead of hitter. (Not to nitpick or anything, I just figured you would want to know)

    Comment by AJT — March 18, 2013 @ 11:54 am

  8. Arg, thanks.

    Comment by Mike Axisa — March 18, 2013 @ 11:56 am

  9. I worded that stupidly. I meant the CF offensive bar is lower than it is in the corners.

    Comment by Mike Axisa — March 18, 2013 @ 11:57 am

  10. Really surprised Melky Mesa didn’t make it on here. Evokes an image of an alabaster sandstone pillar rising from an Arizona desert.

    Comment by Mac — March 18, 2013 @ 12:21 pm

  11. Curious… why is it projected that Span will have only a .308 wOBA (that’s the career low mark of his two injured seasons, while the others were all a good bit higher) and a Bsr of .9 (averaged 3.1 career)? Not saying the needle would move that much or that those guesses will be wrong, just curious about why.

    Comment by Will H. — March 18, 2013 @ 12:22 pm

  12. You seriously left off the name Pagan, Angel?

    Comment by Sam — March 18, 2013 @ 12:31 pm

  13. I can’t answer that, I didn’t work on the actual projections.

    Comment by Mike Axisa — March 18, 2013 @ 12:41 pm

  14. I’m kind of surprised at how much you think Jay’s going to regress this season. He seemed to be pretty solid last year, and nothing jumped out as abnormal to me.

    Comment by Ty — March 18, 2013 @ 12:56 pm

  15. Scratch the “you guys”. I remember seeing the systems predicting that. Sometimes I forget all you guys do is playing time/depth chart

    Comment by Ty — March 18, 2013 @ 1:00 pm

  16. you’ve just exposed AA’s latest attempt to find a market inefficiency

    Comment by jim — March 18, 2013 @ 1:00 pm

  17. My pet theory is that Colorado will always win less games than they should by WAR because, while their numbers are inflated over the course of the season, the other teams get to hit at Coors too.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 18, 2013 @ 1:08 pm

  18. Adam Eaton being projected to hit .290/.369 is a little bit insane to me.

    Comment by Timeghoul — March 18, 2013 @ 1:16 pm

  19. I thought the vibe out of DBacks camp was they wanted Ross to be the backup CF, and Parra will slide into right when Eaton sits. Something about grit, hustle, blah blah blah.

    Comment by Purple — March 18, 2013 @ 1:42 pm

  20. It’s even better Anglicized – just plain

    Ain’ gl pay’ gn

    ran together really quickly, rather than the more proper but decidedly less exciting

    An hell’ puh gan’

    Comment by Jason B — March 18, 2013 @ 1:43 pm

  21. There are a few things that are curious about the Span projection:

    He is at .308 wOBA even though his ZIPS is at .313 and Steamer at .307, I would have expected it to be .310.

    The projection systems believe 2011 is closer to his true talent level, albeit with lesser defense.

    The projection systems believe he will be under .300 for a BABIP, which is consistent with 2010 and 2011, but his career is .320. However he was at .315 last year.

    Steammer thinks he is going to walk more and strike out more than 2012 and ZIPS thinks he is going to walk less and strike out less than last year. The average of the projections yeilds a result that is worst case; he strikes out more and walks less.

    Comment by MK — March 18, 2013 @ 1:48 pm

  22. The 26-year-old has very legitimate power, but he’s a big-time fly ball hitter who doesn’t drew enough walks to offset the damage they do to his batting average and by extension, on-base percentage.

    Don’t flyballs have a higher BABIP?

    Comment by Fred — March 18, 2013 @ 2:10 pm

  23. To me as well.

    Comment by Eminor3rd — March 18, 2013 @ 2:50 pm

  24. This is Arizona! We can’t have no Hispanics taking playing time from our untalented white boys!

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 18, 2013 @ 2:56 pm

  25. Nope. They have a higher SLG%.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 18, 2013 @ 2:57 pm

  26. Love this series. I was curious whether there was much collaboration in the playing projections between positions. I’ve been compiling the PT projections (by percentages) and have found that some multi-position guys are getting some pretty inflated numbers. Danny Espinosa is at 98%, Maicer Izturis 87%, and Jed Lowrie 85%. These seem high given how conservative the PT projections are overall (most starters are at around 85%, with Jose Reyes and Jacoby Ellsbury especially low). Should we expect Ben Zobrist to round out at 110%?

    Comment by Just a Bill — March 18, 2013 @ 2:58 pm

  27. No.

    Comment by BookBook — March 18, 2013 @ 2:58 pm

  28. Coco Crisp was robbed.

    Comment by MikeS — March 18, 2013 @ 3:00 pm

  29. We made sure no one got more than 100%, but there are a few inflated numbers for multi-position players, as you noted. The differences in playing time levels aren’t so large that they’ll end up making real differences across teams, though.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — March 18, 2013 @ 3:05 pm

  30. not at all Fly balls have the lowest BABIP, about 1/6 of Line Drives

    Comment by Tomcat — March 18, 2013 @ 3:07 pm

  31. Particularly enjoying seeing Zobrist pop up on almost every one of these lists…is he the backup closer as well?

    Comment by The Humber Games — March 18, 2013 @ 3:19 pm

  32. I’m kookoo for Coco Crisps.

    Comment by Radivel — March 18, 2013 @ 3:31 pm

  33. “…internal rhyming…”

    You mean, “assonance”, a word alliterative of my estimation of you for ignoring Michael Nelson Trout, who should be in every single power ranking for any sport and for any topic.

    He’s even the best living speaker of Hittite, I’m sure of it.

    Comment by King of the Byelorussian Square Dancers — March 18, 2013 @ 5:34 pm

  34. Is Trout really the second best CF on his team?? (fielding) Bill James has Trout as the #1 defensive CF in baseball, Bourjos is better?

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — March 18, 2013 @ 6:14 pm

  35. I’m surprised to see that Billy Hamilton didn’t make the Reds center field discussion. He’s gotta be up in June after the Reds realize Choo can’t play center, right?

    Comment by Johnny Come Lately — March 18, 2013 @ 6:16 pm

  36. I dont think Hamilton projects as a centerfielder

    Comment by Josh M — March 18, 2013 @ 7:00 pm

  37. The Braves are all too low on these lists if you ask me, a very biased Braves fan. But I enjoying reading them. Good series.

    Comment by Mark — March 18, 2013 @ 7:03 pm

  38. Bourjos is unreal in the outfield, but he didn’t play a full season last year so Trout beats him in the counting stats.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 18, 2013 @ 7:42 pm

  39. Be that as it may, he’s going to be playing CF in AAA this year.

    Comment by YanksFanInBeantown — March 18, 2013 @ 7:42 pm

  40. Kole Calhoun!

    KOLE CALHOUN!

    Comment by matt w — March 18, 2013 @ 9:18 pm

  41. I think he will rapidly decline because he’s so one dimensional. I think 3.2 is a little low as well, but it’s not absurd. He fell off a lot last year.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — March 19, 2013 @ 2:57 am

  42. Atlanta has upside. Best case scenario for their outfield is a 100/100 year (100 combined HR, 100 combined SB). They also have the potential to be a huge disappointment. I have faith in Heyward and JustUp. I think if anyone shits the bed, it’s going to be BJ. He’s the oldest and has never really gotten close to his supposed potential, but both hey and Justin have a MVP caliber season a piece.

    Comment by Antonio Bananas — March 19, 2013 @ 3:00 am

  43. In what ways did he ‘fell off a lot’ last year?

    His defense was the best it’s ever been.
    He posted a career high BB%
    He posted the third highest OBP% of his career
    He posted career best ISO, SLG%, HR’s
    He posted ~40% of his team’s SB’s
    His SPD score stayed within his past production
    His BABIP was just a tick or two above career average

    Sure, I’ll take the under on 6.5 HR’s, but the Braves didn’t like to run last year, and his speed has held up as has his defense. I can see him easily being a 4+ win player and it seems a little absurd that a combined Bourn/Stubbs CF projection is just above 3 WAR.

    Comment by Stuck in a Slump — March 19, 2013 @ 10:00 am

  44. Seriously, he’s an Angel, no! He’s a Pagan! ARGH! Do we exalt him or damn him?!

    Comment by Stuck in a Slump — March 19, 2013 @ 10:02 am

  45. Then go talk to whoever did. Stop being lazy and do your job.

    Comment by Synovia — March 19, 2013 @ 10:39 am

  46. And it will go from bad to worse when the Mariners best CF in terms of projected WAR/PA is squeezed completely off the roster by Jason Bay and Raul Ibanez.

    Comment by Choo — March 19, 2013 @ 1:11 pm

  47. I could be wrong, but I doubt that Zobrist will see any CF this season, unless there’s an injury. The Rays seem intent on making Sean Rodriguez the backup CF.

    Comment by Baltar — March 19, 2013 @ 1:45 pm

  48. Check out Bourn’s stats after the all-star break last year if you want to see an indication of future decline.

    Also, the Braves gave Bourn the green light to run whenever he thought he could make it. Thus, his lower than usual stolen base total last season didn’t have anything to do with him playing for the Braves.

    Comment by JT — March 19, 2013 @ 4:44 pm

  49. Bourjos will get to any ball in play Trout gets to and then some. He wont be pulling back any homeruns though, so I’m not sure how it balances out.

    Comment by Erik — March 19, 2013 @ 5:53 pm

  50. Shane Victorino snuck in there at 105% (and Zobrist and Michael Saunders are both at 100%).

    Comment by Just a Bill — March 19, 2013 @ 6:04 pm

  51. Since you reference the “projection”, it seems like you understand that this is not what Axisa, or even Fangraphs, is saying he’ll do, but what an average of ZiPS of Steamer predict he’ll do. Are you just saying you think the projection systems are off?

    Comment by Ben Hall — March 19, 2013 @ 11:07 pm

  52. In several comments, Axisa implies that BABIP and strikeout rate are negatively correlated. I wasn’t aware of that. Can anyone point me to some research on that?

    Comment by Ben Hall — March 19, 2013 @ 11:09 pm

  53. It’s a perfectly cromulent word.

    Comment by David G — March 21, 2013 @ 3:18 am

  54. Where can we find the league average stats per position, that you cite at the start of the article?

    Comment by Hanny — March 21, 2013 @ 2:45 pm

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