FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Kershaw’s performance was the best overall, followed by Harper (2 HRs and a bullet to home from LF that not only prevented a run but eventually produced another out).

    Comment by binqasim — April 2, 2013 @ 10:44 am

  2. Clayton Kershaw’s combined hitting and pitching WPA of 0.75 is quite impressive. I wonder how often a pitcher gets that kind of number? It’s easier for a hitter since a few times a year the same guy will hit a big home run in the late innings to tie a game and then win it in extras but a pitcher needs a long outing in a close game to inflate his WPA like that.

    Comment by MikeS — April 2, 2013 @ 10:45 am

  3. I agree; I know defensive metrics are still being worked on, but there were some rather impressive defensive plays in the Nats-Marlins game. Besides the Harper laser-beam throw that lead to a 7-2-3-4-2 double play, Zimmerman saved a run in the first inning and Desmond made a stop that kept a 1-out single from being a 1-out RBI double. On the Marlins side, Polanco, Nolasco, Pierre, and Stanton did a really good job on defense too.

    Comment by jorgath_dc — April 2, 2013 @ 10:57 am

  4. If only one could actually get the LA TV broadcast for that Indians/Blue Jays game, as the notes suggest. Le sigh.

    Comment by Leighton — April 2, 2013 @ 11:12 am

  5. Apologies for lifting your spirits momentarily.

    Edited duly.

    Comment by Carson Cistulli — April 2, 2013 @ 11:16 am

  6. Yes Zimm’s play was impressive too and ALR’s dig on that same play was great as well. I think Nationals should improve their defensive metrics this season.

    Comment by binqasim — April 2, 2013 @ 11:20 am

  7. we’re willing to let the lifting of our spirits slide this time, just make sure it doesn’t ever happen again

    Comment by juan pierres mustache — April 2, 2013 @ 11:38 am

  8. What a great idea. Vin Scully calls every game, everywhere. No more Hawk Harrelson!

    Comment by MikeS — April 2, 2013 @ 12:11 pm

  9. Why would you willingly turn on Vin Scully when it’s not necessary….?

    Comment by semperty — April 2, 2013 @ 12:15 pm

  10. Because he enjoys the finest things in life?

    Comment by Price enforcer — April 2, 2013 @ 1:05 pm

  11. Did you fsctor in the Sunday night game? I feel like Maxwell for the Astros should be close to the top in the wRAA discussion.

    Comment by markz — April 2, 2013 @ 1:10 pm

  12. “…a pitcher needs a long outing in a close game to inflate his WPA like that.”

    Not to mention hitting a HR. Probably hard to get 0.75 WPA as an AL pitcher. I have never looked into it — what kind of pitching WPA do perfect games and 20K games earn?

    Comment by Jay29 — April 2, 2013 @ 2:09 pm

  13. TEX w/Yu Darvish only has a 63% chance of beating the Astros? That seems extremely low and indicates that it’s essentially impossible to get above 70% likelihood of winning a game. Maybe that’s the truth, but it’s still surprising.

    Comment by futant462 — April 2, 2013 @ 4:52 pm

  14. WPA is results-based so 20K and perfect game doesn’t matter, it’s just how close he gets his team to winning. All shutouts are equal in equal circumstances, in other words. A guy can load the bases every inning, and that decreases his WPA, but he gets all the WPA back if he makes it out of the inning without allowing a run.

    Comment by Bip — April 2, 2013 @ 5:26 pm

  15. I don’t find that surprising at all. The best teams rarely win 63% of games and the worst teams rarely lose 37%. Obviously those numbers would be more skewed if the best teams and worst teams always played each other, but you also have to figure those numbers are regressed, being as we can’t at this point say that Texas is a true talent 100-win team, nor can we conclude Houston is a true talent 60-win team.

    Comment by Bip — April 2, 2013 @ 5:29 pm

  16. Just for example:

    A 9 IP, 0 R, 0 H, 0 BB, 20K performance in a 8-0 win will have less (far less) WPA than a 9 IP, 1 R, 7 H, 4 BB, 5 K performance in a 2-1 win.

    Comment by Bip — April 2, 2013 @ 5:32 pm

  17. Nerdgasm.

    Comment by Balthazar — April 2, 2013 @ 10:20 pm

  18. Thanks, makes sense.

    So, even if a pitcher is dominating in a 0-0 game, you’ve got to expect that his pitching-WPA is capped somewhere around 0.60, right? If it’s 0-0 in the bottom of the 9th, the home team has a WP% just above 50%, so a game-winning HR will account for ~0.4 WPA, meaning the pitching WPA is ~0.6 at most.

    If the run scores in the 1st inning, though, does his WPA end up better, since scoring a run in the 1st raises your WP% a lot less than a 9th-inning walk-off? Can that situation net a pitcher something closer to ~0.9 WPA?

    Comment by Jay29 — April 4, 2013 @ 1:12 pm

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