Clayton Kershaw’s combined hitting and pitching WPA of 0.75 is quite impressive. I wonder how often a pitcher gets that kind of number? It’s easier for a hitter since a few times a year the same guy will hit a big home run in the late innings to tie a game and then win it in extras but a pitcher needs a long outing in a close game to inflate his WPA like that.
I agree; I know defensive metrics are still being worked on, but there were some rather impressive defensive plays in the Nats-Marlins game. Besides the Harper laser-beam throw that lead to a 7-2-3-4-2 double play, Zimmerman saved a run in the first inning and Desmond made a stop that kept a 1-out single from being a 1-out RBI double. On the Marlins side, Polanco, Nolasco, Pierre, and Stanton did a really good job on defense too.
TEX w/Yu Darvish only has a 63% chance of beating the Astros? That seems extremely low and indicates that it’s essentially impossible to get above 70% likelihood of winning a game. Maybe that’s the truth, but it’s still surprising.
WPA is results-based so 20K and perfect game doesn’t matter, it’s just how close he gets his team to winning. All shutouts are equal in equal circumstances, in other words. A guy can load the bases every inning, and that decreases his WPA, but he gets all the WPA back if he makes it out of the inning without allowing a run.
I don’t find that surprising at all. The best teams rarely win 63% of games and the worst teams rarely lose 37%. Obviously those numbers would be more skewed if the best teams and worst teams always played each other, but you also have to figure those numbers are regressed, being as we can’t at this point say that Texas is a true talent 100-win team, nor can we conclude Houston is a true talent 60-win team.
So, even if a pitcher is dominating in a 0-0 game, you’ve got to expect that his pitching-WPA is capped somewhere around 0.60, right? If it’s 0-0 in the bottom of the 9th, the home team has a WP% just above 50%, so a game-winning HR will account for ~0.4 WPA, meaning the pitching WPA is ~0.6 at most.
If the run scores in the 1st inning, though, does his WPA end up better, since scoring a run in the 1st raises your WP% a lot less than a 9th-inning walk-off? Can that situation net a pitcher something closer to ~0.9 WPA?