I’ve never understood this about Pizza Cutter’s “stabilization” methodology.
The author compared even-numbered PAs to odd-numbered PAs. He didn’t compare first 50 PAs to next 50 PAs for example. He gives legitimate reasons for taking this approach but my problem is this:
When applying this data to the real world, you simply cannot say that a metric stabilizes at X PAs — because in reality we are always looking at a player’s FIRST X PAs, meaning consecutive PAs within a single season, which Pizza Cutter’s methodology didn’t evaluate. Not only that, but the author took 2-year data to ensure he had enough PAs.
That methodology is fine but then why does the sabre community always make statements like those made in this article: “Swing percentage stabilizes around 50 PA, and contact rate between 70 and 100 PA”.
No they don’t… at least not in the way that this article describes. Swing percentage stabilizes at 50 PAs consisting of every other PA (therefore 100 total PAs) compared to 50 PAs inbetween. And of course, comparing PAs in this way introduces far more stability than comparing 2 groups of consecutive PAs, since certain factors are being held constant (often the same pitcher on the mound, weather, ballpark, defense and so on).
It’s interesting data but it cannot be practically applied in the way that it’s routinely touted.
Jackson’s elite BABIP skills and 20 homer power coupled with this potential improvement in K rate? Yikes. If this contact improvement isn’t noise, he’s got to be the most likely to have a .400 season of anyone playing now.
Comment by The Party Bird — April 17, 2013 @ 7:51 pm
Comment by Johnny Come Lately — April 17, 2013 @ 8:11 pm
…basically, he’s got a realistic shot at having what tigers fans long ago hoped would be ron leflore’s career. only better.
Comment by deafdumbandblindkid — April 17, 2013 @ 9:17 pm
If there’s one thing worse than people talking about fantasy ball on Fangraphs comments, it’s the people who needlessly ream them for it.
No mention of the change in his approach at the plate starting in the spring of 2012…? What about the fact he stopped using a major legkick last year? I really like the use of statistics, but numbers without context or reasoning results in a lacking article.
That was a really well-said, well-thought-out comment; genuinely appreciate it, Jake. Would be interested to see if it merits a response or discussion from any of the authors who cite K-rate stabilization rates.
AJ is now batting .272 and striking out more than once a game..He’s back to being a strikeout king…It was only a matter of time before he showed his true colours…That trade for Coke and AJ isn’t looking very good right now is it?..I’d rather have Granderson who will have a superior career.