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  1. “just 24 plate appearances”

    Isn’t that even beyond small sample sizes. Aren’t there typically dozens of such starts that end up meaning nothing every year [plus the occurrences where is doesn’t happen to start the season, I’m sure Omar Infante will keep up the .672 wOBA he put up in the last week]

    Comment by Eric R — April 30, 2013 @ 8:48 am

  2. Very true, however the article makes no attempt to analyse those 24 plate appearances or draw any conclusions based on them.

    The article is an interview with a baseball player about his work. Just take it for what it is.

    Comment by Dave (UK) — April 30, 2013 @ 9:52 am

  3. On the other hand, Carp’s apparent ability to be a productive player in limited service may point to a real value. Some guys lose a lot of effectiveness when they come off the bench; a player who doesn’t is what teams need as a 4th/5th outfielder, pinch hitter, etc.

    Comment by Mr Punch — April 30, 2013 @ 1:01 pm

  4. If it was hot a 100+ PA start, I’d agree– but I think the interview would have been sufficient in a case like this.

    Comment by Eric R — April 30, 2013 @ 2:05 pm

  5. Just want to congratulate you on this site, first time on it, was referred by a fellow Red Sox fan. Keep up the good work, you provide a valuable service. Thank you.

    Comment by Doug Merrill — April 30, 2013 @ 3:06 pm

  6. Letting Carp go was another in a long line of stupid moves by the Mariners.

    Comment by Bill — April 30, 2013 @ 3:55 pm

  7. I agree. The lead in is a bit ridiculous. A 5-game hot start is not relevant.

    Comment by evo34 — May 1, 2013 @ 1:22 am

  8. “any advice is not bad advice.”

    Comment by BalkingHeads — May 1, 2013 @ 11:51 am

  9. Well, he’s had three more PA: K, HR, pinch HR. He’s now hitting .480 / .519 / 1.080.

    People routinely fail to grasp that the significance of any performance is not simply a function of the sample size, but that of the sample size and the divergence of the performance from the norm or expectation. (Bill James pointed this out long ago, citing Roger Clemens’ 15-K, 0 BB game early in his career as something that an ordinary pitcher was very unlikely to ever accomplish).

    So it’s not actually true that anything at all can happen randomly in a 27 PA big league sample. If that sample has the hitter making contact 18 times and recording 3 line drive singles, 5 doubles, 2 triples, and 2 homers, you could calculate 95% and 99% confidence intervals on the hitting skill that could produce that, and the lower limits would, I think, be interesting.

    Comment by Eric M. Van — May 2, 2013 @ 12:05 am

  10. And it’s worth noting that there’s a genuine penalty for pinch-hitting, so a player who has a small sample precisely because he’s not a regular but is succeeding at the plate in spite of that may be showing you something more significant than the same number of PA from a starter at the beginning of the season.

    Comment by joser — May 6, 2013 @ 9:44 pm

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