Trout made a bonehead play as well, launching a throw to third on Ramirez’ single in an ill-advised attempt to get De Aza. He had no chance whatsoever, and the throw allowed Ramirez to stroll into second base. Of course we can’t assume the results would be the same if it was 1st and 3rd instead of second and third, but after Rios struck out, Dunn hit what likely would have been a double play ball….had the infield not been drawn in. It’s all hypothetical at this point, because the change in results can’t be assumed, but it does help to illustrate the Angels troubles.
‘Contract albatrosses’ doesn’t quite do justice to how awful these contracts are. The Angels are paying these two players $365M. Together, they’re worth -0.3 WAR right now. ZIPS optimistically projects them to be worth about 2 WAR each by the end of the season.
In 2015, Pujols and Hamilton will be paid $47m at ages 35 and 34, respectively. And it only gets worse from there. 2016- $55m. 2017- $56m for their age 37 and 36 seasons!! And they both have full no trade clauses (as if someone besides the Angels would be willing to trade Mike Napoli for a crazy-bad contract).
It’s incomprehensible that the Angels still owe $322M to two below replacement level players starting next season!
I thought Tony Reagins was a moron because of the horrible deals he made when he was Angels GM . With the Angels tradition of horrible deals alive and well with another GM ,you have to wonder if maybe the real moron is higher up in the organization .
They are not below replacement level hitters, and ZIPS isn’t ‘optimistic’. ZIPS is objective. And Pujols and Hamilton are historically above replacement, even after factoring in aging curves.
Horrible contracts? Absolutely. But let’s not use 1.5 months of the season as evidence that they are toast. At this point last year, Hamilton was a god and Pujols was an old man. Then the rest of the season happens, as it always does.
Michael Kohn has had a career-long battle for control. Jeff Keppinger over his career has walked almost as often as he has struck out. The outcome wasn’t that surprising, in light of Kohn’s walks to the previous two batters.
The Angels were thin in starting pitching to begin with and Weaver’s injury has hit especially hard. Here in Toronto, we feel their pain.
Pujols and Hamilton will start to hit, but the Angels cannot make up 11 games under .500 easily.
Comment by Hurtlockertwo — May 17, 2013 @ 10:34 am
In defense of the contracts, The masses were all for signing both of them.. The front office okay’d them, the analysts were high on the signings, the stat-nerds were okay with them.. okay, everybody knew that there would be some decline years in there. But, most agreed it would be some years away. Nobody saw this happening this year.
Both of them come across as pretty negative to me. They say that there is a chance these deals could work about but the risk (in Hamilton’s case) or the added benefit over existing options (in Pujols’ case) largely overshadows the benefit. In fact, Jeff Zimmerman talked about Hamilton’s Olivo-esque contact problems: “We haven’t really seen a season like Hamilton’s 2012, with so much success but so many red flags.
Then regarding Pujols, Cameron got it wrong. He expected the Angels to start feeling the consequences in 2014, not this year: “The Angels are now contenders in 2012, but I don’t know if the present value added for the next year or two is worth the long term consequences of this contract. The Angels are going to need a lot of things to break their way in order for this to work.
Also, be sure to scroll down to the comments, you’ll also see that the masses weren’t all for signing both of them either.
i feel bad for LAA, I really do. All that money for Hamilton was idiotic and Pujols is falling faster than his age curve really predicted. They’re done. The same can be said for LAD as well. LA is going to have to put up with some frustrating baseball.
Hamilton has at least slightly heated up, with a 108 wRC+ in May.
His k% has come down a bit, and is “only” 25.8%, which is only a slight uptick from last year. It’s funny, but we sometimes get the feeling Hamilton is K’ing at an astronomical rate, and then we also know K’s matter less than people think.
Across the board pretty much Hamilton’s plate discipline numbers are an improvement over last season. O swing% down, Zone Swing% down, Swing % down, O-Contact up, Zone Contact up, contact% up, swinging strike% down. In some of these the improvement is slight to negligible, some a bit more pronounced. And last year was an outlier as far as successful seasons for hitters with that type of discipline.
Where Hamilton is hurting is power, hard contact and walk rate. he does seem to have improved the plate discipline slightly from last year, and in May his K% is down to 23.7%. It’s getting a bit more manageable.
He’s still making too much contact on pitcher’s pitches. But there are some signs of improvement and I expect more. But no, that contract appears to have been a bad idea. Too much that looked possible from last year’s red flags have come home to roost in spades. To mix a bunch of metaphors.
Heck, I haven’t been screamed at for this for ages now. For the past few years now Pujols has been falling as fast as his age curve would predict provided you just, ummm, add 2-4 years to it. Just have to stop assuming every major league scout operating in the year 1999 got it wrong.
Gonzalez and Crawford are playing very well actually. Kemp’s struggles are probably more injury-related than age-related. Kershaw is going to get a big deal and he is every bit worth it. Greinke was injured in a freak incident, but has shown no performance problems. Ryu looks like a real catch. Hanley has hit well while he hasn’t been hurt.
The only contracts that look really bad right now are League, Beckett and Ethier, and none of them are supposed to be the stars of the team. The other contracts could turn bad, but at the moment, I’d say the Dodgers have been victimized far more by luck than by their players.