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  1. I like it when people try to say that FOs all know more than we do and don’t base signings on on year of performance, etc. JC Bradbury, I’m looking at you. Moves like this make it obvious that there are still people who know less than the average blogger about talent evaluation running multimillion dollar baseball organizations.

    Comment by lookatthosetwins — December 10, 2009 @ 1:18 am

  2. Well, here’s the good news.
    Ed Wade signing Lyon for 3/15 means Amaro won’t get to send Lyon that 2/14 offer he was preparing (Just kidding). Sometimes I think Ed Wade actually does get caught up competing with his old club (Philadelphia). You’re not a playoff team, please don’t think you’re one player away, especially not one reliever away.

    Comment by Wolfie — December 10, 2009 @ 1:36 am

  3. And yet he still has a job, while tons of smart clueful assistant GMs like Kim Ng and Chris Antonetti wait in the wings….

    Comment by Joser — December 10, 2009 @ 1:43 am

  4. But you may be speaking too soon, Dave. There are still a couple of dangerously clueless GMs we haven’t heard from yet.

    Comment by Joser — December 10, 2009 @ 1:45 am

  5. I think the “Threw it on the Ground” SNL Short is appropriate here. Wade brings the contract to show off to McLane, the old fart looks it over… “I threw it on the ground!” Or we can really get crazy and imagine Wade getting thrown to the ground. How does that guy still have a job? Photos apparently…. lots of em.

    Comment by Paul — December 10, 2009 @ 1:46 am

  6. Terrible move but I feel the need to tell Dave Cameron how delightfully pleased I am with his dislike of Saturday Night Live sketches. I always wonder how that show still exists? It is certainly the Ed Wade of comedy.

    Comment by Ricter — December 10, 2009 @ 1:46 am

  7. Exactly: “The Worst Signing of the Winter . . . So Far”

    Comment by The Nicker — December 10, 2009 @ 1:51 am

  8. Signings like this make me feel better about being a Pirates fan.

    Comment by W. Palm Bch — December 10, 2009 @ 2:02 am

  9. No – the Ed Wade of comedy goes by the name of Bill Maher.

    Comment by Basil Ganglia — December 10, 2009 @ 2:06 am

  10. And it’s technically not even winter yet. There’s a long way to go.

    Comment by WY — December 10, 2009 @ 2:23 am

  11. If the average blogger was in charge of a team, he would make plenty of mistakes, too. Not defending this move, but…seriously.

    Comment by WY — December 10, 2009 @ 2:25 am

  12. As a Giants fan, I feel compelled to note that Brian Sabean hasn’t weighed in yet. I expect a 3 year, $21M contract for Jermaine Dye any day now.

    Comment by Ace — December 10, 2009 @ 2:38 am

  13. Shawn Chacon, can I get another choke?

    Comment by Jesse Behr — December 10, 2009 @ 2:39 am

  14. What’s even more appalling, if you’re an Astros’ fan, is that they opted against offering arbitration to Hawkins before inking Lyon. It’s one thing to value Lyon higher than Hawkins, and entirely worse to not get the draft pick compensation for losing Hawkins.

    Comment by Jeff Erickson — December 10, 2009 @ 3:09 am

  15. Dave, where do you get the $10 million per win number? Just curious thanks.

    Comment by Brent — December 10, 2009 @ 3:18 am

  16. Think I may have figured it out…did you do 5 / .5 WAR = 10?

    Comment by Brent — December 10, 2009 @ 3:24 am

  17. Pudge was pretty bad. Might be even less defensible.

    Its close. I do think Lyon is the worst though.

    Comment by alskor — December 10, 2009 @ 3:34 am

  18. As bad as this signing is… it’s a bit much to totally bash Wade’s talent evaluation. The guy DID draft Utley, Burrell, Howard and Hamels.

    Comment by baines03 — December 10, 2009 @ 3:36 am

  19. Yeah but everyone attributes the past Phillies’ draft success to Arbuckle who let snubbed in favor of Amaro last year.

    Comment by Rut — December 10, 2009 @ 3:44 am

  20. *they. Wade blows.

    Comment by Rut — December 10, 2009 @ 3:45 am

  21. Before every goes on blaming this entirely on Ed Wade, let’s not forget that Uncle Drayton McLane is the one REALLY running the show in Houston. Let us also not forget that he didn’t have a clue what a double, an intentional walk, or even the infield fly rule was when he bought the team. The idiots in Houston start at the top (Drayton) and trickle down to us lowly fans (me) who continue to go spend money at “The Juicebox,” the best park in baseball…just ask Drayton.

    With that out of the way, let’s get down to the Lyon deal. People constantly chastise the Stros’ for the Carlos Lee contract, however, he produces when in the batter’s box, and he isn’t nearly as bad in the field as people say. He at least produces enough to kind of justify his contract. Lyon just hit the mother-load though, and when, yes I said WHEN, he fails…everyone will call him names, be rude, etc. However, its not his fault that we have an owner and GM that have zero analytical skills, and zero clue on how to run a baseball team. If someone was willing to pay me an astronomical amount to be average at something, I would do standing backflips for about 2 days. Anyways, our most pressing need in 2009 was starting pitching, as our bullpen was decent enough. Sure there were some rough number towards the end of the season, but people seem to forget that our starters failed to last more than 5 innings a good 85-90% of their starts this season. Our bullpen was overworked, fatigued and hurt…and its the starters not doing THEIR jobs that got them there. So instead of doing the smart thing, getting a couple of STARTERS, our “brilliant minds in charge” go out and get two average-at-best relievers, and drastically overpay for one of them. And seriously, did I miss the line of suitors all the way down the block that were lining up to pay Lyon that much money???

    Sorry for the long rant, I am just ashamed of being so in love with a team that is ran by incompetence. I am now going to go curl up in the fetal position and cry until spring training.

    Comment by AshamedAstrosFan — December 10, 2009 @ 3:45 am

  22. Also, this is definitely the first of many outrageously awful deals this winter, mark my words. The usual suspects (Rangers, Giants, Blue Jays, Cubs and Tigers) have yet to throw multi-millions at someone that makes even the signing player scratch his head. The Astros generally do one terrible contract per off-season, and hopefully Lyon is the only one. I dunno know, there is a rumor they are interested in Pedro Feliz to play 3rd base, so as long as no other team shows interest in him, we could definitely compete with ourselves and give him say 4 years and $50 mil? How does that sound Wade/Uncle Drayton? Sounds like a steal to me.

    Ok, my sarcasm is getting lame…back to the fetal position…

    Comment by AshamedAstrosFan — December 10, 2009 @ 3:50 am

  23. Mike Arbuckle would be the guy that was responsible for drafting those guys.

    Comment by Marcel — December 10, 2009 @ 3:52 am

  24. Umm, to be honest, the Brewers’ 3/27 mil (or 30 mil) offer will by far be worse than this one!

    Comment by Ed Wade — December 10, 2009 @ 4:19 am

  25. for Randy Wolf that is

    Comment by Ed Wade — December 10, 2009 @ 4:19 am

  26. There’s a new sherriff in town in Toronto, so it is not clear yet what he will be throwing around.

    Comment by brent in Korea — December 10, 2009 @ 4:30 am

  27. This deal is fucking lunacy. Good article

    Comment by Mike — December 10, 2009 @ 4:46 am

  28. I see this a lot but can someone explain to me how a player can have a higher batting average than his own BABIP ??? Do HR’s not count?

    Comment by baseballlover — December 10, 2009 @ 4:51 am

  29. but worse than the pudge signing?

    Comment by Lee D — December 10, 2009 @ 4:57 am

  30. or to turn down a shot at signing Hawkins to a 1 year deal and prefer to sign Lyon to a 3 year deal!

    Comment by chuckb — December 10, 2009 @ 7:35 am

  31. See Dave, I disagree.

    I think Will Ferrell is still funny. And I think that Ed Wade is funny too — but mostly that’s because I can watch him submarine a team other than mine for a change.

    Comment by PhillyFriar — December 10, 2009 @ 7:51 am

  32. Lyon’s sabers weren’t that good last year but I’m a Tigers fan and I watched him pitch every game and he wasn’t that bad(after the first 6 weeks of the season). His BABIP was low but that wasn’t just because of good luck, majority of those weren’t hit very hard. His line drive percentage was way down and he produced more infield pop ups than ever before. When guys couldn’t put good wood on the ball of course there not going to get hits. Around June or end of May he really started to use and develop and incorporate a good cut fastball that kinda acted like a slider really looked to confuse hitters at times, he had more swings and misses then ever before and when the did put wood on it majority of the time it wasn’t hit very hard. Not saying he is worth 5 million a year but I think he was better last year than your giving him credit for.

    Comment by MattC — December 10, 2009 @ 8:05 am

  33. No, I don’t think HRs count, because they’re not “in play.”

    Comment by Rob in CT — December 10, 2009 @ 8:58 am

  34. Kids, you, too, can be a general manager of a major league baseball team.

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 9:00 am

  35. Yes, BABIP is (H-HR)/(AB-HR-SO+SF).

    So say you’re a hitter who in 200 AB, hits 10 HR, SO’s 70 times, gets 55 H total, with no SF. Your AVG is 55/200 = .275, your BABIP = (55-10)/(200-10-70) = 45/120 = .375.

    In another example, say another guy in 200 AB homers 20 times, strikes out 20 times, gets 60 hits total, his avg is 60/200 = .300, and his BABIP is (60-20)/(200-20-20) = 40/160 = .250.

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 9:11 am

  36. Quote: or to turn down a shot at signing Hawkins to a 1 year deal and prefer to sign Lyon to a 3 year deal!

    That’s untrue. Wade wanted Hawkins back on a 1 year deal. Hawkins is quoted as saying that Wade’s refusal to offer more than one year was the deal-breaker. Given Hawkins’ age, I can’t blame him.

    One thing I think Cameron has wrong here is the assumption that Wade relied upon the most recent year ERA to make his decision. Wade’s previous trade for Lindstrom proves that he isn’t making his decisions based on the player’s most recent ERA. Wade is an old style GM who proudly prefers scouting reports to stats. (He probably acts more like it is 1989, than 1999.) I assume some scouts liked Lyon, and, as an Astros’ fan, all I can do is hope that they are right.

    Comment by CJ — December 10, 2009 @ 9:13 am

  37. Lee’s so far gotten $42.5 mil from the Astros. His dollar value in that time (according to average rate of FA pay indicated in his value section) has been $39.6 mil. So far, it’s not been terrible, but of course, the worst of it is yet to come thanks to the heavy backload.

    Sorry, that was a terrible attempt to cheer you up.

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 9:16 am

  38. The Phillies giving any money at all to Ross Gload is pretty stupid too, but at least it’s a lot less.

    Comment by don — December 10, 2009 @ 9:21 am

  39. This is kind of like when Ned Coletti gets credit for the Dodgers’ good young players when it was Dan Evans responsible for Kemp/Kershaw/Martin/Loney/Billingsley

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 9:22 am

  40. Exactly. Sabermetric guy sees someone sign a player to a contract that the numbers don’t suggest he’s worth. Sabermetric guy calls that someone a moron. There is more that goes into it than what the guy’s WAR was last year. If this article was written 360 days ago, its about Ibanez. Let’s look at what Dave said about him “get him a contract that he just doesn’t have the ability to live up to.” There was another article about the trade called “The Ultimate Headscratcher”. Sometimes we can successfully use something besides WAR.

    Comment by Chip — December 10, 2009 @ 9:45 am

  41. Tweeted from @Bill_Bavasi: “Looking forward to passing on the Cam Bonifay Trophy for Disachievement in Baseball Operations to Ed Wade at the next MLB awards luncheon.”

    Comment by Basil Ganglia — December 10, 2009 @ 9:59 am

  42. Did he really tweet that? Twitter’s blocked at work.

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 10:03 am

  43. then Wade gets credit for hiring Arbuckle. that’s part of a GM’s responsibilities.

    when a bunch of draft picks work out for a GM that we DO like, we usually don’t discount that GM even though his scouting director likely made those choices.

    Comment by Steve — December 10, 2009 @ 10:28 am

  44. yes.

    Comment by Steve — December 10, 2009 @ 10:32 am

  45. There are more years on that Ibanez deal. 2009 did work out very well (and the contrast with Burrell was dramatic). Let’s see how the rest of the deal plays out before deciding the sabre folks were wrong about Ibanez.

    Comment by Rob in CT — December 10, 2009 @ 10:32 am

  46. Dumb signing, but even dumberer hyperbole from Cameron.

    Comment by gary — December 10, 2009 @ 10:32 am

  47. i doubt it.

    Comment by Steve — December 10, 2009 @ 10:33 am

  48. the point about Hawkins was not offering arbitration.

    if he wanted him back on a 1 year deal, why not offer?

    Comment by Steve — December 10, 2009 @ 10:35 am

  49. Interesting that this Wade bashing comes right after another post praising the ‘Stros for acquiring Matt Lindstrom.

    Comment by geo — December 10, 2009 @ 10:46 am

  50. Rob in CT: There are only two years left on the Ibanez deal. Also, using WAR, Ibanez has already performed almost 2/3s the vaule of his contract. Ibanez could perform at 1.5 WAR over the next two years and surpass the “value” of his contract, although we fans expect much more from him. So although you’re correct that we need to see how the rest of the deal plays out, using any regression analysis, and barring catostrophic injuty, it looks like there is a pretty good chance that the deal was a good one for the Phillies.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — December 10, 2009 @ 11:12 am

  51. My apologies – I forgot to add in the value of the draft pick the Phillies gave up. 2 WAR per year and the Phillies make out well.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — December 10, 2009 @ 11:15 am

  52. Considering I can’t find @Bill_Bavasi on Twitter, I kind of doubt it.

    Comment by Kevin S. — December 10, 2009 @ 11:31 am

  53. Arbuckle joined the Phillies in ’92. way before ed wade was the GM.

    Comment by BATTLETANK — December 10, 2009 @ 11:33 am

  54. This is results-based analysis (ie Ibanez was good so the people who said he would decline and not be worth his contract are wrong). At least 8-9 times out of 10 a 37-year old left fielder is a good bet to already be in the midst of his decline phase. That Ibanez didn’t decline doesn’t prove that “the sabers were wrong,” just that Ibanez is the 1 guy out of 10 who beat the odds.

    Comment by Chris — December 10, 2009 @ 11:45 am

  55. Yep, while this sets the benchmark for bad signings, you can be damn sure the morons in charge of SF and KC will try and top it.

    Comment by PL — December 10, 2009 @ 11:47 am

  56. Nope randy wolf will be about that valuable for Milwaukee, its not like he went to AL East or anything.

    Comment by PL — December 10, 2009 @ 11:49 am

  57. Brian Schneider got a 2 year deal. He’s a backup catcher. 2 years. For a backup catcher. That’s insane.

    Comment by PL — December 10, 2009 @ 11:50 am

  58. As always.

    Comment by KC — December 10, 2009 @ 11:50 am

  59. It’s a bad deal no doubt, but it’s not exactly a franchise busting contract, and barring injury, Lyon will produce a significant portion of that money. However, the reason that this is such a horrible signing is that because of the amount of money spent, Wade will clearly want Lyon as the closer. If he isn’t there really isn’t any way to justify the contract, and Lyon has proved over and over that he isn’t a good closer. On a team with marginal talent a bad closer will sink the ship in April, and this is not a very good team.

    Comment by Ed Nelson — December 10, 2009 @ 11:51 am

  60. andy samberg’s digital shorts on snl = gold

    Comment by PL — December 10, 2009 @ 11:52 am

  61. “it’s not exactly a franchise busting contract”

    That’s $15MM that should have gone to Oswalt, or an actual, real, good player. Bottom line, you do NOT pay relievers like this, nor give them multi-years. Unless its Mariano or Hoffman, relievers are the easiest players to replace, look at a guy like Andrew Bailey, probably the 2nd best closer of 2009 behind Rivera, he was a SP at AA last year. Seriously, think about that. You can get so many RPs for the minimum who can outpitch every FA available. This is the Farnsworth of 2010. Totally unnecessary from a team who needs to tear itself down and rebuild.

    Comment by PL — December 10, 2009 @ 11:57 am

  62. Hopefully there are moves yet to be made, but the most perplexing aspect of the Astro’s recent activity is that they are focusing on the bullpen.

    They were terrible at, both, scoring runs and preventing runs last year. They clearly have a lot of work to do in filling out their every day lineup and their starting rotation. The bullpen is the last place they should be focusing their efforts and their money.

    Jebus, I hope they are drafting well.

    Comment by MH — December 10, 2009 @ 12:15 pm

  63. It’s not wrong. It’s right. The Astros didn’t offer Hawkins arbitration.

    Comment by Neil — December 10, 2009 @ 12:15 pm

  64. This is the credited response.

    Comment by Tim — December 10, 2009 @ 12:18 pm

  65. Whether you say it was Wade’s responsibility for hiring Arbuckle or not, it doesn’t change the fact that Utey, Burrell, Howard, and Hamels were all very talented and there’s a good chance that many, many “lesser qualified” people may have drafted them as well.

    Comment by BrettJMiller — December 10, 2009 @ 12:23 pm

  66. As an O’s fan, its so nice not to see them in the usual-suspect-for-horrible-FA-signings list anymore. The memories of Baez, Walker, et al seem firmly in the rear view despite being not that long ago.

    Comment by Tim — December 10, 2009 @ 12:27 pm

  67. Even blind squirrels eventually find nuts.

    Comment by Tim — December 10, 2009 @ 12:32 pm

  68. Yeah, Pudge for 2 years/$6M and probably whatever the rumored 2 year contract the Royals are planning on giving Jason Kendall should at least get a mention.

    Comment by GhettoBear04 — December 10, 2009 @ 12:33 pm

  69. Matt Wieters was talented too. Don’t the Pirates get some credit for not drafting Daniel Moskos ahead of him? Oh wait…

    Comment by ugen64 — December 10, 2009 @ 12:35 pm

  70. Um, you realize the Rangers had to dump Millwood’s contract in order to free up money to sign Rich Harden right? Somehow, I doubt they’re going to be making a huge signing.

    The Tigers also seem to be in sell mode.

    Comment by GhettoBear04 — December 10, 2009 @ 12:37 pm

  71. he’s averaged like 125 innings per season since 2002. not confident he’ll live up to any 3 year deal.

    Comment by ugen64 — December 10, 2009 @ 12:37 pm

  72. Eugenio Velez would like to welcome Brandon Lyon back to the NL!

    Comment by oldjacket — December 10, 2009 @ 12:38 pm

  73. or maybe, just maybe, Ruben Amaro isn’t actually an idiot and he and his scouts decided Ibanez wasn’t really as much of a risk as we thought he was.

    Comment by ugen64 — December 10, 2009 @ 12:39 pm

  74. yeah, i’m not pretending to know the inner workings of the Phillies. point taken on Arbuckle.

    my point was really that i would imagine most GMs defer to their staff when making draft selections. even the ones who are popular here.

    Comment by Steve — December 10, 2009 @ 12:43 pm

  75. Closer to 150, and he’s been fine the past 2 seasons.

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 12:44 pm

  76. Joe R: Dan Evans? I always thought Logan White got the majority of the credit for the Dodgers’ drafts over the past decade or so.

    Comment by JH — December 10, 2009 @ 12:47 pm

  77. For anyone who doesn’t think this is bad, wrap your head around this:

    Chone Figgins will average 9 million a year. Brandon Lyon will average 5 million a year. How much more value will Figgins provide for that extra 4 million?

    Comment by Joe R — December 10, 2009 @ 12:48 pm

  78. Holy crap. You know what else $5 million per year can pay for?

    David Aardsma
    Mark Lowe
    Sean White
    Shawn Kelley
    Ryan Rowland-Smith
    Jason Vargas
    Lucas French
    Doug Fister
    Garrett Olson

    Actually, that group cost about $4 million in 2009.

    Comment by Choo — December 10, 2009 @ 12:51 pm

  79. Yes, but they only gave him $2.75M over 2 years. In a down year in 2009 with the number of AB’s that he’s likely to receive this year, he was worth 0.3 WAR and $1.5M. How is this deal likely to be worse than giving $15M over 3 years to Lyon, who’s been worth on average 0.7 WAR throughout his career and 0.7 WAR in each of the last two years.

    Comment by H — December 10, 2009 @ 1:01 pm


    17.5mill over the next 3 seasons?!?!

    Comment by Phil — December 10, 2009 @ 1:01 pm

  81. Even stranger is that JC seems to think that the deal is “about right.” Even if JC values Lyon at close the contract price, it’s strange that he doesn’t recognize that there are fistfuls of guys just as valuable as Lyon that can be had for pennies on the dollar.

    Comment by Tim — December 10, 2009 @ 1:11 pm

  82. “…and this is not a very good team.”

    All the more reason not to pay $15M to a marginal talent and also all the more reason to criticize the GM for not at least offering arbitration to Hawkins.

    Comment by H — December 10, 2009 @ 1:13 pm

  83. Brian Giles is still a free agent. So don’t jump the gun on that worst winter signing.

    Comment by Bronnt — December 10, 2009 @ 1:48 pm

  84. Well what I meant was that most of those guys were drafted during the Evans era.

    I sound like Joe Morgan when caught bullshitting.

    Comment by JoeR43 — December 10, 2009 @ 2:12 pm

  85. A good portion of Ibanez’ increased value in 09 came in the form of a better-than-expected UZR and ISO. Whether these numbers are substantially sustainable will be interesting to see. If they were a function of taking a different approach to hitting/fielding, better training and health, and CBP ballpark, I would think that although 3-3.5 WAR isn’t out of the question this year. If this occurs, then it was an F***ing good contract for the Phillies.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — December 10, 2009 @ 2:18 pm

  86. I would like to see your data on blind squirrels finding nuts. My research shows that 100% of blind squirrels die before finding anything.

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — December 10, 2009 @ 2:21 pm

  87. Eh, Ed Wade’s not as terrible as people want to make him out to be. It’s kind of like how anytime something in the Houston sports world goes bad, some reporter has to use the “Houston we have a problem” phrase as if it hasn’t worn out a million times before. Just like how the only thing a person can blog about Ed Wade is about how terrible he is. There’s never any mention of trades he pulled off like stealing Randy Wolf from the Padres or getting Hawkins from the Yankees.

    As the Phillies GM, he constructed the basis of what is the current 2 time defending NL Champions. Not too shabby. He’s also the guy that hired Charlie Manuel.

    As the Astros GM he’s taken a terrible team run into the ground by what could be the worst GM in baseball history, Tim Purpura, and made them almost competitive, while trying to rebuild the worst farm system in baseball. He also inherritted a terrible coach in Cecil Cooper, who has since been replaced by what should be a legit guy in Brad Mills.

    Wade’s no genius, but he’s not near as bad as people make him out to be.

    Comment by Darin — December 10, 2009 @ 2:26 pm

  88. Darin,

    Truth be told, Wade deserved little credit for the Phillies 2008 title with his biggest contribution being trading Brad Lidge to the Phillies – not saying that that was a bad trade from the Astros perspective. The drafts that yielded Hamels, Utley, Howard, Rollins, et al were orchestrated by Mike Arbuckle. If you want to give Ed Wade credit for retaining Arbuckle or for not trading away the players Arbuckle drafted, I guess you could do that, but that seems like a reach to me. He does get credit for hiring Charlie Manual, but the credit for the aforementioned talent plus the players they have brought in recently should go to Arbuckle, Gillick and Amaro.

    Comment by H — December 10, 2009 @ 2:35 pm

  89. So Ed Wade’s biggest contribution to a champion was hiring a manager who leads off with a sub-.330 career OBP?

    Get me on that winning formula.

    Comment by JoeR43 — December 10, 2009 @ 2:47 pm

  90. I had no idea this post was the least bit subtle!!!

    Comment by Basil Ganglia — December 10, 2009 @ 3:00 pm

  91. Ed Wade does make some really poor decisions but he also makes some good one’s. It just seems that his poor decisions stick out more than the good one’s do. He should get his credit due with the Phillies because he did draft the core of there team, even if Arbuckle did all of the scouting.

    Comment by phillies07_08 — December 10, 2009 @ 3:02 pm

  92. Not that I don’t take your point, but the “Dodge Stratus” line was used only once in the SNL skit — at the end of it.

    Comment by sansho1 — December 10, 2009 @ 3:16 pm

  93. oh my shwette balls.

    Comment by jason — December 10, 2009 @ 4:37 pm

  94. Will Ferrell got a lot funnier once he left SNL, just like Wade got funnier (for you) once he left the Phillies.

    Comment by Dingo — December 10, 2009 @ 4:52 pm

  95. The point of this post– that this GM seems to make bad deals– is lost in the venom of the writer. I have more questions about your emotional health and vindictiveness than I do about Ed Wade. And that’s just bad reporting.

    Comment by Bob Allen — December 10, 2009 @ 5:30 pm

  96. I thank God every day that Ed Wade is no longer the GM of the Phillies. He’s up there with Bavasi for worst GM in recent history. Terrible signing.

    Comment by NEPP — December 10, 2009 @ 6:42 pm

  97. But at least you admit it. Better still, you’re aware you’re doing it.

    Comment by Joser — December 10, 2009 @ 8:01 pm

  98. Unfortunately, SquirrelFX data is not widely available yet. Maybe next season.

    Comment by Joser — December 10, 2009 @ 8:04 pm

  99. Never call a man a fool. Borrow money from him instead.

    Comment by Rob McMillin — December 10, 2009 @ 8:09 pm

  100. This isn’t a “report.” And if you think this is a particularly venomous or vindictive post, you haven’t been around teh intratubes much.

    Comment by Joser — December 10, 2009 @ 8:36 pm

  101. Yes, I do realize that about the Rangers. However, never, and I mean NEVER, count the Rangers and Tigers out when it comes time to give out an absurd contract. I was shocked when neither of them signed Bonds last year, I was positive one of the two would.

    Comment by AshamedAstrosFan — December 10, 2009 @ 9:06 pm

  102. This is what I love about blogging (sarcasm).

    Even when they’re “wrong” … they’re not really “wrong” … the item they were “wrong” about was simply “the exception”.


    I’m surprised my wife hasn;t coined that phrase. “I’m not really wrong, the item we are discussing just happens to be one of the exceptions to when I am always right”.

    Most of the time bloggers are wrong, the evidence of such appears much later after their comments, so no one really notices or even checks.

    When I read some of these deals, the first thing my mind asks is “Who have they been talking to (advanced scout, pitching coach, etc) and what do they see that we might not be seeing?” Sometimes they do make a bad move, which doesn;t require a whole lot of DEEP analysis to recognize. Not everything is as simple as 0 or 1 or balck & white.

    We’re talking about ERA for a reliever. I’m generally a supporter of ERA, but in terms of reliver, a lot of the runs they give up are inherited runners and a lot of runs attributed to the reliever are given up by the guy replacing him. Relievers don;t usually allow 2 or 3 runners and STILL remain in the game.

    Well, and like what happened to my guy, a reliever gives up a 3 run HR and his ERA goes up 1 or 1 1/2 points. If you pitch in 7 games, an IP per G, and put up 6 clean innings (appearances) and then give up a 3-run jack in the 7th appearance, then your ERA is about 4.

    Relievers, simply due to the fewer numbers of innings, have their ERA much more influenced to one horrible outing. Give up 5 ER in one horrible outing and your ERA is screwed.

    There’s always more to this stuff than what one can gleen from a spreadsheet or website search. That does NOT at all dimish the value of looking at statistics, I’m just saying the numbers don;t always tell the full story, and it never hurts to temper some of the criticism … not that there’s blogging consequences for being wrong though.

    FWIW, I have no idea who wrote the article that started this thread, so none of this commentary is a personal attack on the author, just commentary on blogging, fan criticism, in general. I enjoy the discussion, but rarely the tone or the singular mindset that so many sites/forums have.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — December 10, 2009 @ 9:23 pm

  103. Lyon’s WAR from this very site:

    2007: 1.5
    2008: 0.7
    2009: 0.7

    Weight, regress, yada, yada, yada, you have him at about 1 WAR. Apply aging, time value of money and interest, and the deal comes close to being even.

    That being said, it’s a bad move because Houston is a non-contender, but Lyon is a solid pitcher and will likely earn his contract.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — December 10, 2009 @ 11:34 pm

  104. Ah, yes.

    Mr. Sabean, we are waiting…..

    Comment by Ryan L — December 11, 2009 @ 12:49 am

  105. Dave Cameron is the same moron who said the Nationals fleeced the Pirates out of Nyjer Morgan. LOL

    Comment by Sekrah — December 11, 2009 @ 1:46 am

  106. Speak for yourself. Around here, winter starts the day after Halloween. And ends the day before Memorial Day.

    Comment by Joser — December 11, 2009 @ 2:31 am

  107. Be careful about calling people names lest ye find them applied to yourself.
    Surely your parents have taught you that by now.

    Comment by Joser — December 11, 2009 @ 2:33 am

  108. Um, Nyjer Morgan for a reliever w/ a 1.600 career WHIP and Lastings Milledge is a pretty good boning.

    And in the case of Morgan and Milledge:

    Morgan: 101 OPS+
    Milledge: 91 OPS+

    Morgan: elite level outfielder
    Milledge: average to bad corner outfielder

    So yeah. unless Milledge finally turns it around, that was a pretty good asskicking the Nats laid on the Bucs. And since you’ll probably say defensive metrics are stupid, I say watch Morgan and see how effortless he makes difficult plays.

    Comment by JoeR43 — December 11, 2009 @ 9:54 am

  109. Neuter: And that data is based upon you “watching the squirrels,” I suppose. Perhaps next you will tell me that Jeter is a great defender because you saw him dive into the stands and hop and throw all those times. Obviously, if you looked at the available statistics, especially SNLVAR (Squirrel Nut Locating Value Above Replacement, though this is a BP statistic), you will find that blind squirrels find nuts at a rate of -30 SNLVAR, which is very low, but does in fact show that they do eventually find nuts. However, the usefulness of the stat obviously depends on the valuation of a replacement squirrel.

    Comment by Tim — December 11, 2009 @ 11:42 am

  110. i cried when i heard about this deal. literally. it will not be easy to root for the Astros for the next 2-3 years.

    i hate Drayton. we should’ve hired Logan White instead of Ed Wade

    Comment by Nick — December 11, 2009 @ 1:21 pm

  111. poor, poor astros. and poor astros fans. i miss hunsicker. wasn’t he mostly responsible for that string of really good years?

    purpura sucked. wade sucks. people try to find ways to give him credit. arbuckle was responsible for the championship core of the phillies, wade was responsible for a string of seasons of missing the playoffs. yes, he pulled off the wolf and hawkins trades which looked bad at the time; even i was surprised by that. but any stros fan worth their salt knows that we’re not good enough to compete for anything for a long time, and neither of those decent trades were enough to do anything. and the franchise foundation of oswalt and berkman will be wasted in their unhappy and waning years, and they’ll want to be traded no doubt. hell, i would too.

    the bourne trade would then me the last remaining asset that wade has to his name as far as any long-term, profitable moves he’s made for the astros.

    oh, and i hope drayton doesn’t think he’s getting away with either hiring a terrible gm to take the fire, cause we all understand how everything with the club starts and ends with his stamp of approval. if you ask me, he’s the main culprit.

    and for goodness sake, take that ridiculous pole out of center field. it’s an embarrassment.

    Comment by austin — December 12, 2009 @ 5:37 am

  112. You fail to mention that his huge drop in BABIP was not caused by a huge drop in BABIP on line drives, but rather on ground balls. While BABIP is based on luck in some fashion, the correlation with luck and BABIP on ground balls is not as strong. If his BABIP on line drives had as much as it had on ground balls I think we would have more of an issue than we do.

    Comment by Patrick — December 12, 2009 @ 3:57 pm

  113. Ibanez was a case of moving from a big park/no protection to a small park/massive protection. Not that hard to see.

    Comment by t agee — December 19, 2009 @ 11:23 pm

  114. Nice…it only took you 5 paragraphs to mention the team that signed him. Nice writing. Hack.

    Comment by P. Hertz — December 20, 2009 @ 12:28 pm

  115. hello sir, i am here again, waiting for the other post

    Comment by poker bwin — March 31, 2010 @ 4:31 am

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