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  1. Also worth pointing out: Andruw Jones age 21 season, and the value of defense.

    Comment by Jacob Smith — June 21, 2013 @ 12:37 pm

  2. It’s also interesting to me that Mike Trout could, potentially have more “value” if he weren’t being used in left field, and were instead being used in center field. Not only is there an argument that could be made that he would be racking up more personal value in a position he is more used to playing (as in, the drop-off between his performance in LF and CF is likely very small), but there’s also the issue of positional adjustments.

    The positional adjustment between time at LF and CF isn’t insignificant. If one player puts up his kind of hitting numbers at CF instead of LF, that tends to rack up a higher WAR if defensive performance is roughly the same. It’s possible that if he were being utilized differently by the Angels, we’d look back at his numbers a little bit differently.

    Comment by Bryan Grosnick — June 21, 2013 @ 12:38 pm

  3. real shame those numbers are being wasted on the biggest underperformers in recent memory

    Comment by thetruth — June 21, 2013 @ 12:40 pm

  4. I would appreciate this more if he didn’t play for the Angels.

    Comment by Zach — June 21, 2013 @ 12:41 pm

  5. With Trout’s popularity and youth combination, I wonder if more younger(high school mostly) kids will start to value things like baserunning and taking walks a little more

    Comment by PraiseTrout — June 21, 2013 @ 12:53 pm

  6. With Bourjos in CF, does that hurt some of Trout’s defensive metrics considering how good Bourjos is? There’s likely balls that Trout could easily get to with his speed/range, but he defers to Bourjos on them.

    Comment by sausagemcbiscuit — June 21, 2013 @ 12:53 pm

  7. Trout’s UZR in left field — the games when he’s been playing next to Bourjos — has been quite good. It’s the CF data that is dragging his total number down, and Bourjos wouldn’t have any affect on Trout’s fielding numbers on days when Trout is in CF.

    UZR is designed so that if one fielder makes a play, his teammate is not penalized for not making the play. He won’t get credit for a play made either, but it’s not docking him for not making that catch if Bourjos does make it.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — June 21, 2013 @ 1:00 pm

  8. I think there’s a key sentence in your second paragraph that isn’t true. “If defensive performance is the same”, then the WAR will be the same, because equal defensive performances in LF/CF don’t result in the same UZR. The only way his WAR would be higher in CF is if his UZR was the same in both spots, but that’s not the same thing as defensive performance. Being a +10 fielder compared to other CFs is a better performance than being a +10 fielder compared to other LFs.

    Comment by Dave Cameron — June 21, 2013 @ 1:02 pm

  9. Bryan, your bed is over there by the wall.

    Comment by guy who knows where the beds are — June 21, 2013 @ 1:08 pm

  10. Jeff Sullivan has pointed out that, in general, it’s in our nature to start taking good players for granted after their sheen as prospects wears off. Thanks for articles like this that help me appreciate what Mike Trout is doing.

    Comment by George — June 21, 2013 @ 1:08 pm

  11. However, Trout doesn’t get credit for for the play Bourjos makes either, so he is being penalized indirectly.

    Comment by bluejaysstatsgeek — June 21, 2013 @ 1:19 pm

  12. what about Arod? he turned 21 in 1996, the year that he had 9.6 WAR

    Comment by Max — June 21, 2013 @ 1:22 pm

  13. I see what you mean, but the production isn’t ‘wasted.’ Trout is keeping the Angels from making the transition from ‘bad’ to ‘really bad.’ That counts for quite a lot.

    Comment by Bab — June 21, 2013 @ 1:27 pm

  14. May we never speak his name again.

    Comment by Shlum — June 21, 2013 @ 1:28 pm

  15. Do individual UZR ratings take into account the capabilities of their adjacent fielders?

    Comment by Bab — June 21, 2013 @ 1:29 pm

  16. But he was 20 when the year began, so it counts as his 20 year old season.

    Comment by Baseball ages — June 21, 2013 @ 1:31 pm

  17. Dave Cameron, always rooting for the Angels.

    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 1:32 pm

  18. As an Angels fan of over three decades, Mike Trout is a wish come true; we’ve never had a true franchise player. I remember being jealous of the Mariners in the 90s when they got not only Ken Griffey Jr but then Alex Rodriguez – two true franchise players within a half decade of each other. The Angels had a few close-calls to a homegrown franchise player in Wally Joyner, then Tim Salmon, then Jim Edmonds, Darin Erstad, and Troy Glaus. But all fell short, some by quite a bit. In 1995 Salmon looked like he was breaking through to the superstar level, but then dropped back to merely a star. Edmonds looked excellent, but then was traded and ended up having five superstar years in St. Louis. Erstad also had that teaser in 2000, as did Glaus.

    So Mike Trout truly is the messiah for Angels fans. He makes even this crappy year worthwhile – if nothing else, we have Trout to watch. My only worry is that as an East Coast boy, and if the Angels continue to under-perform, he’ll be less likely to sign that 8-10 year contract we’re hoping for. I suppose worst-case scenario is that we’ll get his next four and a half (and possibly greatest) years, then a ridiculous prospect package during the 2017 season if it becomes clear he doesn’t want to stay. But I’m hoping that Dipoto makes him an offer he can’t refuse this offseason, something like 10/$200 million.

    One more thing. Watching the game last night I was struck by just how good Trout is – how he’s become a player that can adjust to the situation and get that single when needed, steal a base when needed, leg out a “hussle double” when needed, take a walk, hit his share of home runs, and make huge plays. He does everything in a way that is very, very rare – perhaps even unprecedented, or at least only from the likes of names such as Bonds, Mays, and Mantle – and the Seattle version of Griffey Jr. There is just a feeling of greatness about him, which I also get from Bryce Harper, I got from Griffey and Bonds – but I don’t get from players like Justin Upton or Andrew McCutchen or Matt Kemp – all very talented, but without that extra special quality. It is like they are, rather than humans playing baseball, baseball players being human. They were made for the game and the game for them.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 1:33 pm

  19. While he turned 21 during the season, that is actually credited as his age 20 year.

    Comment by Joe — June 21, 2013 @ 1:33 pm

  20. Well, after 16 games Puig has 1.3 WAR so he’s on a pace for 13 WAR …

    And Bryce Harper has a 167 wRC+ with a BABIP of .287 *sigh*

    Comment by AnthonySoprano — June 21, 2013 @ 1:40 pm

  21. Its just too soon to tell with Puig. I expect he’ll be very good, maybe great, but I’m guessing he’s more Cespedes than Trout.

    As for Bryce, my big concern for him is not his talent – which is tremendous, and definitely in the same ballpark as Trout – but his health. Knee bursitis at 20-years old does not bode well. Bryce Harper could be the 21st century Hank Aaron, but he also could be the 21st century Darryl Strawberry (hopefully without the extracurricular activities, but in terms of “aborted greatness”).

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 1:44 pm

  22. I think you need to remember the words of Gabe Paul: “There is no such thing as second place. Either you’re first or you’re nothing.”

    Comment by Jim — June 21, 2013 @ 1:49 pm

  23. I’m pretty sure the bursitis will go away once he stops running into walls …

    Comment by AnthonySoprano — June 21, 2013 @ 1:51 pm

  24. What discouraging is that DRS has him at -12?! and most of that is from his Left Field performance. I just dont know why UZR and DRS cant agree?

    Comment by Darren — June 21, 2013 @ 1:59 pm

  25. Can’t help but notice, speaking of, that this year’s version of Manny Machado is already showing up on the list of all time great 20 year old seasons.

    Comment by Transient Gadfly — June 21, 2013 @ 2:07 pm

  26. 10/$200? He’s going to be staring at a 10/$300 deal in the face at the end of his arb years from someone.

    Comment by ih — June 21, 2013 @ 2:19 pm

  27. I’ve been watching to see if he can surpass Mel Ott’s 19.3 WAR through their age 21 seasons

    Comment by Kogoruhn — June 21, 2013 @ 2:21 pm

  28. Best age 20 and age 21 seasons and best all around player in the game. Yet, he won’t walk away with an MVP in either season…

    Comment by LuckyStrikes — June 21, 2013 @ 2:22 pm

  29. Gregg Popovich, yesterday:

    “It was a great series and we all felt that,” Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. “I don’t know if ‘enjoy’ is the right word, but in all honesty, even in defeat, I’m starting to enjoy what our group accomplished already, when you look back. And you need to do that, to put in perspective. So it’s no fun to lose, but we lost to a better team. And you can live with that as long as you’ve given your best, and I think we have.”

    And of course, there’s silver and bronze medals, which most athletes keep. Gabe Paul’s sentiments are popular, especially in America, but I side with Popovich’s attitude.

    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 2:23 pm

  30. Yes, but will he stop running into walls? His comments after the incident suggest that he thinks running into walls is somehow his job.

    Comment by Anon21 — June 21, 2013 @ 2:30 pm

  31. Also, “mediocre” is very much worth shooting for, if the alternative is “bad”. “Bad” means fans stop showing up, and therefore money stops flowing in.

    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 2:30 pm

  32. Boy, Rickey sure could run, couldn’t he? I can’t decide who was more fun to watch: Rickey in his prime or Frankenstein’s Bonds.

    Comment by the sauce — June 21, 2013 @ 2:31 pm

  33. How much better did Trout do than another great young talented player Al Kaline in age 20 and 21 seasons?

    Comment by Ron — June 21, 2013 @ 2:37 pm

  34. Supposedly Trout made adjustments at the plate around May 1st, working on not striking out. The positive results showed up in his performance almost immediately. Trout’s best tool might be his head. If he can make adjustments, at will, he might stay at the top of this game for some time to come.

    Comment by rustydude — June 21, 2013 @ 2:41 pm

  35. And Randy Johnson! And Edgar Martinez! And . . . no championship. And the Angels did.


    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 2:48 pm

  36. Rickey could run and the best hitter’s eye, or nearly.

    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 2:51 pm

  37. I have no idea what that means…but damn do I like it.

    Comment by Jason B — June 21, 2013 @ 3:05 pm

  38. Also ‘second place’ often means ‘wild card’, which has often translated to “World Champion” since the dawn of the Wild Card era.

    Comment by Jason B — June 21, 2013 @ 3:07 pm

  39. 10/$200MM would include arbitration years. Something like this:

    2014 (pre-arb): $3MM
    2015 (arb 1): $12MM
    2016 (arb 2): $15MM
    2017 (arb 3): $20MM
    2018-2023 (free agency): avg $25 million per year

    That’s $200MM over ten years, or Trout’s age 22-31 seasons.

    This sort of contract potentially benefits both the player and team:

    player – guarantees a lot of money at a very young age and protects against possible future injury and/or decline; brings some of the likely higher later salary into arbitration years, spreading it out more evenly

    team – keeps player under club control into early 30s (Trout would turn 32 at the end of year 10); avoids having to go to free agency and having to spend more and for longer into decline phase

    There’s some risk to both parties, especially the team, but overall I think it benefits both. I mean, if they’re willing to pay $250MM for age 32-41 of “Albertross” and $125MM for age 32-36 of “Hamildone” then I don’t see why they wouldn’t be willing to spend $200MM for age 22-31 of “Troutstanding.”

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 3:09 pm

  40. Look at his 1st-2nd-3rd time facing a pitcher splits. They are amazing.

    Comment by — June 21, 2013 @ 3:11 pm

  41. That’s just it – he seems to innately know baseball – which is why I’m not as worried as Dave that declining speed will change him from great to merely very good. I think he’ll find ways to remain great, if in slightly different ways.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 3:13 pm

  42. And the number doesn’t seem off compared to the eye test for young Andruw, either.

    Comment by TKDC — June 21, 2013 @ 3:14 pm

  43. Some great players on those mid-90s to early-00s Mariners teams. Don’t forget Jay Buhner, although I suppose he was a Yankees prospect and not in the same category as the other four mentioned.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 3:16 pm

    Kaline was worth 7.4 WAR at age 20 and 6.3 at 21 for a combined 13.7 WAR. So he was obviously great at those ages, but Trout has been worth more with 89 games to go.

    Comment by Preston — June 21, 2013 @ 3:25 pm

  45. I always thought that anybody who averaged over 5 WAR a season was “great”. Trout could regress quite a bit and still be great in my book. I guess everybody has their own standard, but the fact that Dave didn’t think he was going to be a 10 win player does not mean he’s demoting him to “very good”.

    Comment by Preston — June 21, 2013 @ 3:30 pm

  46. Trout’s reads and routes don’t look nearly as smooth in left as they do in center. He seems to have a poor understanding at the current moment of how balls curve differently coming at a leftfielder. I also think he bulked up too much in the offseason, his speed is definitely down from last year. He should have a couple of more caught stealings that the umps gave him the benefit of the doubt on. I have no complaints about his bat, it’s as good as ever.

    Comment by Phantom Stranger — June 21, 2013 @ 3:54 pm

  47. Just look at it in a roughly similar way to Barry Sanders playing for the Lions. You can appreciate it from that perspective.

    Comment by Bab — June 21, 2013 @ 3:57 pm

  48. As far as I understand it the scale is something like:

    <0: dud
    0-1: scrub
    1-2: marginal regular
    2-4: quality regular
    4-5: borderline star/impact player
    5-7: true star ("all-star")
    7+: superstar, MVP candidate
    10+: "megastar," all-time great season

    So I'd say a player goes from "very good" to "great" somewhere in that 5-7 range. I suppose we could call 5-7 "excellent" and I think Dave WAS saying that Trout would fall from being "ridiculous" to merely "excellent." Nothing to be ashamed of about that, but I think what he underestimated – so far, at least – is Trout's uncanny baseball acumen, his ability to adjust as needed. But as far as I can tell its not in the nerdy Tony Gwynn way – watching hours of tape, working intentionally with micro-adjustments. I think Trout just does it naturally.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 4:04 pm

  49. And not having a neck and Subway sammiches!

    Comment by Jason B — June 21, 2013 @ 4:20 pm

  50. (And Randy Johnson was an Expos prospect.)

    Comment by Scraps — June 21, 2013 @ 4:26 pm

  51. @Angelsjunky: No trolling here, but your use of adjectives is inspiring. You’ve added colour to a good discussion about a great young player. I enjoyed your post. +1

    Comment by chief00 — June 21, 2013 @ 4:27 pm

  52. The fact that ages are treated as truncated integers is one of Tango’s pet peeves.

    Comment by joser — June 21, 2013 @ 4:37 pm

  53. You’ll always have David Eckstein.

    Comment by joser — June 21, 2013 @ 4:40 pm

  54. I think Trout just ran out of gas last year near the end. Those first few months were pretty fun to watch, especially as I got to see him twice when he came to Detroit, made some absurd leaping catch, and then the next inning smacked the bricks in right-center at Comerica.

    I don’t see him winning battles titles or slugging stuff, but I also don’t see him in the future with any real holes in his game. He will be the perfect well rounded athlete who has value just because he does everything the way it is supposed to be done.

    Comment by Kevin — June 21, 2013 @ 4:50 pm

  55. can anyone tell me why he would bulk up? what was he trying to accomplish? he could already hit the ball 450ft…

    Comment by Brian — June 21, 2013 @ 5:09 pm

  56. I understand the scale is more like:

    <0: abominable
    0-1: distressing
    1-2: quotidian
    2-4: commendable
    4-5: borderline virtuoso
    5-7: true virtuoso
    7+: sempiternal-trascendance
    10+: "megastar"

    Comment by Gil — June 21, 2013 @ 5:18 pm

  57. “the part of our baserunning calculation that measures value from advancing my means other than stealing a base.”

    Do you mean “by means other than?”

    Comment by Daniel — June 21, 2013 @ 5:34 pm

  58. Your total contract value looks low.

    Given how few players hit free agency that young, while they can still be expected to improve, he should be asking for at least A-Rod money on any long-term deal. That is an AAV of $28 million per year, and that includes the discount for pre-arbitration and arbitration seasons.

    If I were Trout’s agent, I would push for something more like the Prince Fielder plan. Sign away your arbitration seasons for about what you can reasonably expect for those seasons, and keep all your free agent years. That would mean a contract for something like the 4 years and $50 million you propose at the start of that deal.

    Comment by Bob M — June 21, 2013 @ 5:43 pm

  59. During the winter,in a 16 team dynasty points league ,I traded David Price ,Alex Gordon,Chase Headley, and Lorenzo Cain for Mike Trout and Gerrit Cole . I think it was a great deal for me .

    Comment by Dirck — June 21, 2013 @ 5:57 pm

  60. I’ve pondered what it would have meant to grow up a Lions fan. On one hand, Barry Sanders, in my opinion the most exciting player to ever play is on “your” team. On the other hand, your team is the Lions.

    Comment by TerryMc — June 21, 2013 @ 6:46 pm

  61. RBI’s. Everyone knows you need RBI’s to win MVP awards.

    Comment by Mike — June 21, 2013 @ 7:06 pm

  62. A fine, fine line between parody and a complete lack of self-awareness.

    Comment by Anon21 — June 21, 2013 @ 7:10 pm

  63. I was bigger at 21 than I was at 20. Let’s not forgot that the kid is still growing.

    Comment by Loving Cup — June 21, 2013 @ 7:21 pm

  64. Not really

    Comment by Hitler But Sadder — June 21, 2013 @ 7:55 pm

  65. In my opinion, if you have the greatest RB in history on your team, you watch that team, even if they suck as a whole. But others may disagree.

    Comment by Bab — June 21, 2013 @ 8:07 pm

  66. There are no innate ideas. Empiricism prevails.

    Comment by Shlum — June 21, 2013 @ 8:09 pm

  67. Considering your name is a cross between ‘Dork’ and ‘Dick’, I buy your misguided enthusiasm.

    Comment by Shlum — June 21, 2013 @ 8:11 pm

  68. I agree to an extent, but the fact is this happens much earlier than when they get to the MLB. It happens when they go to school and when they’re assigned to a little league club. In that way the use of age in this way does reflect their baseball experience, if not their actual age.

    Comment by Preston — June 21, 2013 @ 9:32 pm

  69. Empirical knowledge is gained by studying something until you’ve gathered so much knowledge on it that you can form a conclusion. Innate knowledge comes from repeating an action so often that you can perform it without thinking. Whether a player innately knows how to hit or approaches it empirically is really just a different mindset on the part of the player. The end is achieved the same way, through repetition and hard work.

    Comment by Preston — June 21, 2013 @ 9:38 pm

  70. Peter Bourjos is no joke.

    Comment by dannyrainge — June 21, 2013 @ 9:43 pm

  71. He didn’t really overly bulk up. He added maybe a couple pounds, just for the grind of the long season. Last year he started like ~20 pounds under his normal weight due to valley fever. This year he wanted to be more cautious.

    Comment by PraiseTrout — June 21, 2013 @ 9:43 pm

  72. Eckstein came up with the Red Sox, I believe.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 9:49 pm

  73. Innate ideas? No. Innate knowledge? I disagree. People are born with innate talent; you won’t convince me that the difference between Trout and Urkel is simply conditioning, circumstance and essentially “nurture.” Trout’s nature, in my view, is INNATELY more connected to baseball acumen than Steve Urkel’s.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 21, 2013 @ 9:54 pm

  74. Why is Albert’s age 23 season listed on the leaderboard?

    Comment by Anon — June 21, 2013 @ 10:56 pm

  75. I typically create a decimal when looking at things where precision would help.

    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — June 21, 2013 @ 11:11 pm

  76. If Trout keeps on playing like this, he’ll be getting a lot more than 25 AAV from 2018-2023.

    Comment by Izzy Hechkoff — June 21, 2013 @ 11:12 pm

  77. Would you believe best career defensive outfielder and 2nd best fielder…of all-time?

    Comment by D-Cent — June 21, 2013 @ 11:27 pm

  78. Yes.

    Comment by fast at last — June 21, 2013 @ 11:41 pm

  79. Clown article bro.

    Comment by Bryce Harper — June 22, 2013 @ 12:51 am

  80. I grew up in Michigan as a Lions fan. Then I moved to California. Then Barry retired, prematurely. Then I gave up on the Lions. Still like their uniform colors, though.

    Comment by aworks — June 22, 2013 @ 1:00 am

  81. If you adjust for batting order position he leads the league in RBI.

    Comment by pft — June 22, 2013 @ 1:09 am

  82. One of the 4 best hitters in baseball batting 2nd. His manager is a moron.

    Comment by pft — June 22, 2013 @ 1:12 am

  83. Especially with his favorite lead off hitter sporting a 293 OBP.

    Comment by pft — June 22, 2013 @ 1:14 am

  84. Your expectations are crippling. Just sayin

    Comment by Oh, Beepy — June 22, 2013 @ 7:58 am

  85. The Book says your best hitters should hit 2nd and 4th I think.

    FWIW, not that this is why Sciosia is doing it or anything.

    Comment by Oh, Beepy — June 22, 2013 @ 8:00 am

  86. You gotta consider inflation too. Pretty soon $1.0Million won’t buy a house.

    Comment by Jon Woo — June 22, 2013 @ 8:18 am

  87. Wil Myers – FG is the only site on the face of the earth that has William…

    Comment by Frank from NJ — June 22, 2013 @ 8:20 am

  88. You guys are missing the point of a big contract signed now. You can’t judge the numbers by what makes sense when Trout hits free agency. That $25MM only seems low if A) Trout continues playing as is, and B) if he didn’t sign a long-term contract until before 2018, when he would get $30MM+. Teams lock up their young players with club-friendly contracts, and players accept them because it is guaranteed money. This sort of contract would be appealing to Trout and his family because it protects against injury and any other eventualities.

    In other words, you look at Tulo and Braun for precedents for this sort of contract, not A-Rod and Pujols. 10/$200MM was a bit of an on-the-fly estimate but I think its about right. I suppose Trout might want to keep it to 8 years so he goes to free agency at age 30 and can still sign a second mega-contract.

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 22, 2013 @ 10:02 am

  89. Pangraphs and Buckingham Palace.

    Comment by maqman — June 22, 2013 @ 11:38 am

  90. I wouldn’t put anyone’s eye over Bonds.

    Comment by Don — June 22, 2013 @ 1:27 pm

  91. I also wonder if having to switch back-and-forth like that doesn’t reduce his effectiveness at CF…

    Comment by TheUncool — June 22, 2013 @ 1:29 pm

  92. It already doesn’t in very many parts of NYC (and not just Manhattan) and some other cities.

    In some parts of Brooklyn — almost suburbs to Manhattan — which may still be undergoing gentrification, even a fairly rundown, fixer-upper can easily exceed that and even reach the $2M mark in some instances…

    Comment by TheUncool — June 22, 2013 @ 1:41 pm

  93. Yes, really a shame that…

    Comment by TheUncool — June 22, 2013 @ 1:45 pm

  94. Remember when winning a $10,000 (ten thousand dollars) sweepstakes was a big deal? That’s chump change now. In the 1980’s wouldn’t 10K practically buy you a small bedroom home?

    Comment by Ender — June 22, 2013 @ 2:36 pm

  95. At least he is not comparing him to Cabrera!! Cabrera the modern day Babe Ruth Or Hank Aaron!! Trout, Machado and Harper are all great talents. Trouts dwar -1.2 shows that his 4 great catches last year might not be repeatable. He is also going to strike out 150 times this year … his current pace 120 … 3 weeks ago 150 pace. He is a good player … but to early to compare to the GREATS!

    Comment by jimbo — June 22, 2013 @ 3:56 pm

  96. You really think the type of person who gives MVP votes based on RBI adjusts for batting order position?

    Comment by x — June 22, 2013 @ 4:59 pm

  97. I don’t know. Henderson and Bonds faced different pitches, with their different power potential. They’re both awesome eyes.

    Comment by scraps — June 22, 2013 @ 6:57 pm

  98. Ha ha ha ha ha ha! Oh, that’s rich. Ha! (Wipes tears from his eyes.) Ahh, ah, yeah… funny.

    Do you have another?

    Comment by scraps — June 22, 2013 @ 7:05 pm

  99. Empiricism is dependent on an idea from which to base research. Unless you’re hung up on the word “innate.”

    Comment by Roberto — June 22, 2013 @ 9:02 pm

  100. Bonds had an insane batting eye. If he took a called strike, most times, it was the umpire who messed up.

    Comment by Nivra — June 22, 2013 @ 9:38 pm

  101. What Angelsjunky said. You can’t realistically predict super world class performance in perpetuity and base values on that. When you’re up at the 99th percentile you’re more likely to move back the curve than up it.

    But at the same time, as Dave said, maybe we overestimated the amount of regression coming.

    Or in other worlds, Mikey may be just plain amazing, rather than superduperstupendouslyamazing.

    Comment by Jason B — June 22, 2013 @ 10:46 pm

  102. If Trout continues to play anything like he’s playing now, and the Angels sign him for only $200m, they should feel incredibly lucky. Seriously.

    Comment by Andy — June 22, 2013 @ 11:10 pm

  103. According to Baseball Reference Mike Trout is the 4th worst defender in the American League (-1.2 dWAR). Why is there such a discrepancy between the defensive metrics for the two respective sites?

    Comment by msg333 — June 23, 2013 @ 1:41 am

  104. this might make sense in a 6 or 8 team league. and even still…rotographs.

    Comment by ben_cartmell — June 23, 2013 @ 1:51 am

  105. Yes. Hall of Famer for that alone IMO.

    Comment by Antonio Banans — June 23, 2013 @ 3:07 am

  106. Unless you’re Ichiro ca. 2001, that is.

    Comment by Dag Gummit — June 23, 2013 @ 4:47 am

  107. I think it’s likely that Trout would suffer less than the typical -10 runs moving from LF to CF. Nothing really to back that up though..

    Comment by vivaelpujols — June 23, 2013 @ 8:02 am

  108. 2nd is probably where you want your best hitter. It has the best balance of extra PA over the course of a season and runners on base.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — June 23, 2013 @ 8:18 am

  109. And it’s too late to compare Cabrera to the GREATS!
    Do you even know who Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron were?

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 12:36 pm

  110. Well, if Gabe Paul said it, it must be true.
    By the way, who is Gabe Paul?

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 12:39 pm

  111. I can’t speak for Mike Trout, but I would take a lot less to stay in Anaheim than go elsewhere.
    You can’t know how great Southern California is until you have to move from there to Cincinnati.

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 12:48 pm

  112. A $1 million house? I haven’t seen a house that cheap in SoCal for many years.

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 12:53 pm

  113. Taking the extra base on a hit.

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 1:00 pm

  114. All lineup analysis says your best hitters should bat 2nd or 4th, depending on OBP vs. power.

    Comment by Baltar — June 23, 2013 @ 1:03 pm

  115. this is a troll situation right?

    Comment by Logic — June 23, 2013 @ 1:25 pm

  116. I think he invented guitars.

    Comment by Logic — June 23, 2013 @ 1:27 pm

  117. (Yankees GM, 1970s)

    Comment by scraps — June 23, 2013 @ 1:38 pm

  118. or Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Barry Larkin, Terry Pendleton, Rickey Henderson, Kirk Gibson (yeah, he was an RBI guy, but he didn’t get his RBIs this year, finishing outside the top ten, with 76! Actually, Gibson never crossed the 100 RBI line), Willie McGee, Pete Rose, Zoilo Versalles, Elston Howard, Dick Groat, Nellie Fox, Phil Rizzuto, Mickey Cochrane, Frankie Frisch, Roger Peckinpaugh, and especially Maury Wills.

    Sure, the MVP is mostly dominated by RBI guys. But Ichiro is not such an anomaly as that.

    Comment by scraps — June 23, 2013 @ 3:15 pm

  119. Trout’s getting far more doubles and triples than he did last season, and he’s getting more infield hits, too. His speed hasn’t gone anywhere.

    Comment by Feeding the Abscess — June 23, 2013 @ 3:49 pm

  120. That’s a good question and, I think, one of the things that tends to make WAR, at least the defensive component, look bad. WAR for pitchers can vary widely as well. For instance, compare Cliff Lee’s WAR from the two sites for 2008 – 2013:

    BR: 6.9, 5.4, 5.8, 8.6, 4.5, 4.0
    FG: 7.1, 6.5, 7.0, 6.4, 4.9, 3.1

    They’re pretty close for ’08 and ’12, but at least a win apart for every other year – and in 2011 a full 2.2 wins apart. What gives?

    Comment by Angelsjunky — June 23, 2013 @ 3:52 pm

  121. I would

    Comment by Rogers Hornsby — June 23, 2013 @ 5:58 pm

  122. Trolololol

    Comment by Locke — June 23, 2013 @ 6:01 pm

  123. Albert still has power, but no OBP

    Comment by WOBA — June 23, 2013 @ 6:04 pm

  124. I think Baseball reference war uses ERA + more than XFip.

    Comment by BR fan — June 23, 2013 @ 6:05 pm

  125. While I would tend to side with Popovich as well, I think the Angels aren’t performing well enough where you can start to find those silver linings.

    Comment by LK — June 23, 2013 @ 8:04 pm

  126. Because objectively evaluating defensive performance is really hard?

    Comment by LK — June 23, 2013 @ 8:08 pm

  127. Did you miss the part where he referenced the projections? Puig is projected to finish with 1.9 WAR. This isn’t just about “on pace for.”

    Comment by LK — June 23, 2013 @ 8:15 pm

  128. Well … Hank Aaron was one of the greatest hitters in MLB history. He played 23 years hitting 733 hrs and 2202 rbi. Career batting line ba .305 obp .375 slg .555 ops .928.

    Cabrera is in his 11th year. Current batting line
    ba .368 obp .460 slg .642 ops 1.102.
    Career batting line ba .321 obp .398 slg .565 ops .963
    with 341 hrs and 1197 rbi.
    He has won 2 batting tiles, the triple crown and has played in 3 world series. ENOUGH SAID!!!

    Comment by jimbo — June 23, 2013 @ 9:13 pm

  129. So BR averages 5.866 for the 6 years and FG averages 5.833 for the 6 years – not much difference over the course of time.

    Comment by boomer — June 23, 2013 @ 10:13 pm

  130. Nobody goes “what gives?” when hitting varies, though.

    Comment by Scraps — June 24, 2013 @ 1:29 am

  131. I think more important is maximization of resources, and one would assume that with Bourjos on the roster, ideal utilization IS Trout in LF and Bourjos in CF.

    Comment by tehzachatak — June 24, 2013 @ 9:02 am

  132. Great article. Thanks for the link!

    Comment by tehzachatak — June 24, 2013 @ 9:05 am

  133. “Trout’s nature, in my view, is INNATELY more connected to baseball acumen than Steve Urkel’s.”

    In large part because Steve Urkel is a fictional character.

    Comment by Nathan — June 24, 2013 @ 9:25 am

  134. Williams.

    Comment by Chris — June 27, 2013 @ 6:29 pm

  135. I wonder how he turns that neck of his! Probably has a Batman cowl situation where he has to turn his whole body to see on either side.

    Comment by J-Rock — June 30, 2013 @ 6:45 pm

  136. WAR has to be taken with a grain of salt. All of these metrics and you end up with Andy Dirks as the best LF in the AL and Trout as average. I only trust the batting part.

    Comment by Prince_Miggy_Mart — August 3, 2013 @ 11:41 am

  137. Well, at 9.2 WAR with 4 weeks of games yet to be played, I think we can close the book on this. That is, unless we’re force fed that grain of salt. Then again, if we look only at hitting, his current 180 WRC+ ain’t bad either.

    Comment by rustydude — September 2, 2013 @ 12:08 pm

  138. Just noticed, 9.2 on 9/2. Is Mike Trout trolling the sabremetric crowd with his on field performance? Not the first time I’ve thought that considering he stuck the landing at a perfect 10.0 last season. And no, I’m not serious.

    Comment by rustydude — September 2, 2013 @ 12:10 pm

  139. Sabremetrics, what a great way for a bunch of nerds to circle jerk. I hope that all of you know multiple languages and play at least one musical instrument very well, then your waste of time finger blasting each other over this ridiculous over analysis won’t be so pathetic.

    Comment by baseballFan — February 24, 2014 @ 11:06 am

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