You talk about Alfonso Soriano making it harder to stay under $189 million in 2014, but my understanding was the trade was going to be structured in a way that the luxury tax deductions from the cash the Cubs are paying cancel out the cost of Soriano next year like the Vernon Wells trade. Is that still the case or did something change?
Comment by Austin carter — July 26, 2013 @ 9:44 am
He is an upgrade. Granderson and Jeter, even if average, will be upgrades. I am assuming A Rod is suspended but what if he appeals, there is another upgrade. Throw in a possible trade or waiver wire pick up. They are better than a 16% to make the playoffs. They have treaded water far longer than anyone thought they would
Why do you assume that the Cubs are going to use the $5 million wisely?
Using Feldman as an example you then said “Odds are good that the Cubs are going to reinvest the savings into their 2014 club and come away with a better (and younger) player than Soriano in the process. That makes this an easy win for Chicago.”
The Cubs also used $5.5 million dollars to sign Scott Baker this year. It seems like that was a pretty poor use of resources and the odds are probably just as high that they use the $5 million dollars on another Baker rather than another Feldman.
Soriano is by no means a great (or even a good player) anymore but he figures to retain his status as a 1-1.5 win player next year which is almost exactly what $5 million would get you in the free agent market place.
I fail to see how this makes this an “easy win” for the Cubs
Comment by Brian Cashman — July 26, 2013 @ 10:01 am
Cubs can spend the money where they need the most help (pitching, 2B, maybe catcher) and use acceptable dirt-cheap guys like Lake, Borbon, Sappelt, Vitters, and Ha in left field for the same production Soriano would provide.
Yeah that could explain it. He supposedly nixed a deal to Pittsburgh last year.
Comment by Pirates Hurdles — July 26, 2013 @ 10:09 am
I’m not sure this money makes any kind of a difference to the Yankees, especially considering that ARod will undoubtedly be suspended for a period of time in connection to the Biogenesis investigation. if ARod makes $25 million in 2014 and is suspended for 50 games – which seems low, but we’ll use that as our “out of the hat” number – then the Yankees will recoup that $7 million in an ARod suspension. And since Braun has already cut a deal with MLB as a kind-of repeat offender, it’s unlikely that MLB is going to go any easier on Alex Rodriguez.
Not stating whether any of this is fair or reasonable or a good use of MLB’s time and energy, just stating that it seems likely that the Soriano money could come out of an ARod suspension.
Agreed this is probably leverage plus it just makes too much sense to get it done. Cubs gain at least a live arm, younger and recoup some money for a signup next year for a player that had a no-trade clause? Not bad.
Also lets the Cubs put someone younger out in the OF as part of the rebuild. Now to find a taker for Gregg and Nate and Theo/Hoyer would be doing an amazing job here.
Might a younger $5mm player have a higher upside and/or trade value than Alfonso? I’m not displeased with Scherholtz, Dejesus and Borbon/Suppelt/etc in the of while waiting for bigger and better things in the off-season, 2014 and 2015. I think they’ll spend the extra $$ wisely.
Signing Scott Baker was a cheap risk just like Feldman. If it wasn’t a risk, they wouldn’t be available for small contracts. At least one of them paying off became more likely when they signed both and the total value of those two signings together is still positive given the Feldman return.
If they don’t trade Soriano, they don’t have this savings to spend on another player next year. Even if it’s more likely than not that they don’t find another flip candidate, the chances that they do are high enough that the cost of losing Soriano’s production is a worthwhile risk given the marginal value he would have to them next year.
This is an excellent move by the Yankees. They are still in contention, get Wells out of the lineup, and even as a platoon DH next year Soriano should return $5 mill of value to the Yankees, should he not?
I disagree that spending $5.5 M on Scott Baker was a “pretty poor use of resources.” There was a pretty good chance that Baker was going to be worth at least 1 win and, if he was on a 2-3 win pace — a fairly decent bet, the Cubs could’ve turned around and traded him at the deadline as well.
Look at it this way, the Cubs spent about $10 M and got Feldman for half a season + the return that Feldman brought them in a trade. That’s a pretty good deal for the Cubs, even if Baker turned out to be worthless.
That Baker has been hurt all season doesn’t mean it was a poor use of resources. It just didn’t work out. It was a solid use of resources and sometimes that just happens.
Do you really think that Soriano was likely to bring them a better return than this pitcher + $5 M?
Yeah, I remember both of them. …the Adams one was particularly exciting. He was about the 5th player the Yankees tried at 3rd this year. He came up and got a few hits, including two HR, if I remember correctly, made a few nice plays in the field, and then the bubble burst and he spent the rest of the his time up looking like a deer in headlights. He was probably relieved to be sent back down, he looked so overmatched.
I’m going to guess that the HR prior to Adams, if not another one by Adams then it was Chris Stewart.
And Cano has been quite good over this period. As a fan you feel like you’ve got at best 4 at bats where something good might happen.
Funny thing, teams have figured out that there is no sense pitching to Cano, and his BB have jumped up, and so has his WAR according to FanGraphs. …but the truth is, those walks might be valuable on the average team, but on this team, if you take the bat out of Cano’s hands you’ve crippled the entire offense.
Because every move can only be judged in retrospect?
I don’t understand the up votes on the AMB comment at all. Baker was throwing in Spring Training and then he injured his arm again. Spending five million one a guy like that is exactly what the 2013 Cubs needed to do. The fact that it didn’t pay off was proof only that there was risk involved in the original deal.
Will the Cubs definitely get something of value from the $7 million they save in the Soriano deal? No, but it’s not impossible. Will Corey Black ever be any use at the major league level? Maybe, perhaps probably, not but again, it’s not impossible. Was Alfonso Soriano going to contribute anything to the next decent Cubs team? Pretty much certainly not.
Hoyer and Epstein’s Cubs may never win anything but it won’t be for a want of attempting to do things the right way. AMB, they have allocated a lot of money pretty wisely already. Paul Maholm? Feldman? Nate Schierholtz? David DeJesus? You can’t claim they have wasted much in their couple of years in the job.
I think you are wrong to assume this means the end of Wells. His splits against lefties are not bad, and he’s a better fielder than Soriano. Plus he’s 18 for 56 in July, which I’ll take all the time.
What makes more sense is for Almonte, Soriano and Wells to split time in LF. And for Soriano to see significant time at DH, with Hafner being the one who loses out in this game of musical chairs.
The conversation for this topic ended hours ago, so I apologize for the late comment. I’m new to this site and this is my first post. I thought the Yankees would have been better off trading for a player such as Matt Laporta. I realize that Laporta has not done much in his career in the majors, but he is younger and less expensive than Soriano. He is also capable of playing first base. The Yankees, already having Wells, had a bigger need for a righthanded 1B/DH than righthanded LF/DH. The Indians have a need for bullpen depth (their bullpen gave up 4 runs tonight to blow the lead) and the Yankees needed a righthanded bat/1B. A swap of Chamberlain for Laporta might have worked. Both teams would have filled needs by exchanging former top prospects.
Don’t forget Gardy! Even though he cooled off a bit last month, he’s back to being a legitimate leadoff hitter.
Comment by Cool Lester Smooth — July 26, 2013 @ 11:04 pm
I’d say the reason that didn’t happen is that Soriano is still a useful piece, despite his age, while LaPorta is simply not very good at hitting baseballs.
Also, Wells is terrible. Truly, truly terrible.
Comment by Cool Lester Smooth — July 26, 2013 @ 11:07 pm
I appreciate the response. There is no denying that Laporta has not hit well in the majors, but he did perform well in the minors for multiple seasons. Before last season you could have said Chris Davis was not very good at hitting baseballs in the majors. Now he’s a top hitter. I’d rather see the Yankees take a chance on a younger hitter like Laporta, whose future cost is minimal, instead of another aging player in Soriano.
I want the Cubs to keep Nate unless a team overpays for him. They have him under contract for next season and this Soriano trade now opens up a great competition for all three OF positions in the Friendly Confines.
If, if, if. You’re assuming a lot. They’ve been treading water, but they’ve been trending down for nearly two months. If those returning from injury reverse that trend then perhaps that 16% number changes. Until then, no, they are indeed at 16% to make the playoffs.