FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. “Not everything has to be predictive, though. This measure might not tell us much about what will happen, but it helps us understand what has happened in the past. ”

    Thank you. I think both sides of the statistical argument in baseball get this wrong way too much. Not everything is predictive, some things just tell us what actually happened, but there’s no reason to expect them to continue. It’s the difference between looking back and looking forward.

    Comment by Brian — September 27, 2013 @ 11:15 am

  2. SB/CS are not the only baserunning plays included in RE24, although they probably account for the vast majority of non-hitting RE24. Advancing on wild pitches, balks, and passed balls are also included, although the hassle of eliminating them probably wouldn’t be worth it. The difference among teams for those sorts of plays is probably literally a few runs.

    Comment by Max — September 27, 2013 @ 11:32 am

  3. You should have heard the Braves broadcasters talking about Freeman and the CLUTCH metric during the game last night. You’d think someone had slapped their mothers. They seemed to think that some math whiz had too much time on their hands, decided to make up a stat for the hell of it, then use it to sell to people. For money.

    I’m glad you pointed out that it might not be predictive. I think saber nay-sayers assume we back these metrics 100% and consider no other possibilities. Although I’m sure the creator of CLUTCH would admit that it’s a flawed, but somewhat helpful look at how things shook out.

    Comment by Dan Ugglas Forearm — September 27, 2013 @ 11:56 am

  4. Seeing the Dodgers very low in that table just shows how bad they were in the first half.

    Comment by Hurtlockertwo — September 27, 2013 @ 12:02 pm

  5. Braves broadcasters are always painful when talking about anything more advanced than batting average. It was painful last night listening to them “explain” babip. One of them was going on about how a hard hit line drive that was caught was still going to help their babip and they kept arguing that a home run was in play…

    I don’t understand how you can get paid to discuss baseball and not bother to try and understand something that’s pretty simple. It’s just being obstinate to refuse to even listen to what a stat is before rejecting it, which they’ve clearly done. Even funnier is how proud they can be sometimes of absolutely stupid stats that obviously have no meaning and were far more complicated to come up with.

    Comment by Brendan — September 27, 2013 @ 1:49 pm

  6. While the Cardinals have outperformed their expected offensive output by a huge margin, it’s also worth noting that their wRAA is 2nd in the NL, trailing only the Rockies (and they have the best park-adjusted offense in the NL). They’d still be a playoff team even without the 7 wins from sequencing.

    Comment by murphym45 — September 27, 2013 @ 2:44 pm

  7. I’m mostly just offended by how they shun anything math related. They are broadcasters, and I don’t see how pissing off at least some portion of your viewers could pay off for them. Even if they don’t believe in this stuff, they don’t have to make it sound like we’re all kooks looking for money by writing formulas. I just think about all of the kids, or even adults (hey, it IS the South), who actually listen to what they say, and then completely close off a path of useful knowledge. They admit that they don’t know anything about the field, so why are they making such rash judgments? I think it’d be tough to find someone versed in sabermetrics that would say something is wholly meaningless, even if it is less useful than something else. No one is claiming to be perfect other than the people who refuse to learn something new.

    Comment by Dan Ugglas Forearm — September 27, 2013 @ 2:51 pm

  8. Would you say this makes Freddie Freeman an MVP candidate? Because if it does, maybe I’ll be able to tolerate Chip Caray and Joe Simpson for the last few days of the season.

    Comment by shapular — September 27, 2013 @ 4:17 pm

  9. Nope sorry, and this as a die-hard Braves and Freddie Freeman fan. It makes him a good player, possibly even a great player, and one that can definitely add value to your team. But, he is not even in my top 5 list of MVPs this season. And there is no shame in being the third best First Baseman in the same league as Votto and Goldschmidt.

    Comment by Mike — September 27, 2013 @ 5:01 pm

  10. I can no longer get offended by those two, I just get irritated and wish they’d shut the hell up. Forever.

    My ability to get really bothered ended the first time I heard the Chipstick refer to ERA as an ‘advanced statistic,’ and spend 20 minutes making the case as to why it was worse than useless and only W-L record should be used to judge pitchers.

    Comment by Snowman — September 27, 2013 @ 5:35 pm

  11. Agreed, but it’s interesting that he is the best hitter on the best team in the NL, no one is really mentioning him for MVP, and a lot of casual fans don’t even know who he is. I also find it interesting how everyone makes excuses for Heyward underperforming his hype based him being so young, but then are quick to dismiss Freeman as a player who will never be a star, when he is actually a month younger. That last sentence was way too long, but you get my point.

    Comment by Emcee Peepants — September 27, 2013 @ 6:40 pm

  12. …really?

    Heyward: 16.5 WAR in 529 games (2156 PAs)
    Freeman: 7.1 WAR in 468 games (1895 PAs)

    It’s hard not to wonder if this could already be Freeman’s career season, and he has 4.8 WAR with only three team games left.

    Heyward had a 4.7 WAR season as a rookie, and a 6.4 WAR season last year, and could still easily improve to have some 8ish WAR seasons.

    Comment by Snowman — September 27, 2013 @ 7:57 pm

  13. I miss having schiambi in the booth. He was a nice sabr-friendly balance to joe simpson’s old school approach.

    Comment by Scott — September 28, 2013 @ 11:02 am

  14. They’re also underperforming their pythag expected wins by 6, so they’re lucky in some ways, but unlucky in others.

    Comment by hotwater — September 28, 2013 @ 3:44 pm

  15. skip to the sweet shop wit my sweetheart Sandy, got my pennies saved cuz I’ma sugar daddy, I’m her Hume Cronin she’s my Jessica Tandy

    Comment by lil brittle — September 28, 2013 @ 4:45 pm

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