FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Garko +8, LaRoche +7

    Yeah right.

    Giambi +8?

    You guys have it in for LaRoche, don’t you?

    Comment by JayCee — January 15, 2010 @ 4:21 pm

  2. Yeah, it’s a big conspiracy. Every year fangraphs picks one player and one team to hate arbitrarily. Congratulations, you’ve figured it out and so win the easter egg.

    Comment by joser — January 15, 2010 @ 4:28 pm

  3. I knew it !@ Man i wanted that easter egg. Next year !

    Comment by Dave — January 15, 2010 @ 4:30 pm

  4. Well, I’m trying to figure out another way any sane person could claim Giambi and Garko are better hitters today than LaRoche.

    LaRoche’s OPS, production and production per AB are much higher than Garko’s. Giambi hasn’t put up better numbers in 3 years, a meaningful notion given Giami’s age.

    Comment by JayCee — January 15, 2010 @ 4:41 pm

  5. It was the royals last year wasn’t it

    Comment by Nate — January 15, 2010 @ 5:53 pm

  6. When Delgado did play last year, he was the one guy that actually hit in Citi Field. I think the Mets should bring him back if he was willing to take a reduced deal.

    Comment by Mark — January 15, 2010 @ 7:00 pm

  7. What, no Ryan Klesko?

    Comment by Bronnt — January 15, 2010 @ 7:37 pm

  8. @JayCee: Matt is using CHONE’s predictions, not any FanGraphs prediction. I personally don’t like CHONE and I feel that some hitters predicted to do strangely bad using CHONE (Holliday, LaRoche).

    Comment by Jon — January 15, 2010 @ 8:11 pm

  9. JayCee, et. al:

    As the commetator below (Jon) says, these are not my personal opinions, but CHONE projections (www.baseballprojection.com). He isn’t throwing these numbers out there — he has done a lot of research on aging curves for each component, park factors, league difference, body types, speed etc., and applies the same principles in a program for all players. I won’t speak for him.

    My own (much simpler) projection system has LaRoche ahead of Giambi as a hitter, but not by much:+9/150 vs. +7/150. That might seem crazy, but without getting into the necessity for a weighted average, regression to the mean, aging adjustments, the AL’s superior pitching (CHONE’s lwts numbers are context-neutral), let’s just look at the last three seasons hitting stats for each player:

    From 2007-2009 LaRoche had 1815 PA, for a .353 wOBA (117 wRC+). He created 37.9 (park adjusted) batting runs above average during those seasons — per 630 PAs, that’s 13 runs above average.

    As for Giambi, from 2007-2009, over 1227 PAs, Giambi had a .355 wOBA (118 wRC+). He created 27.6 rusn above average, but in far few PA, so his batting runs per 630 PAs is slighlty higher than LaRoche’s during hte same period — +14/630.

    That’s not all that’s involved in projection (and the league differences are probably a big factor in Rally’s projections), but I think we can all agree that one should look at more than one seasons of data — and once one does that, it doesn’t seem so ridiculous.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 15, 2010 @ 11:07 pm

  10. In the case of LaRoche’s projections as currently displayed on FanGraphs, I think they are the league and park neutralized versions from before LaRoche was signed. If you look on CHONE’s page where he has LaRoche’s line adjusted for ARI and the NL [http://www.baseballprojection.com/2010/ARI2010.htm], you’ll see that the three-slash is much more generous to account for him being in the NL as opposed to a “neutral” leaguye, and also to account for Arizona’s hitters park. The context-neutral linear weights are the same.

    It also might be worth reading up on regression to the mean:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/content/article/whats-past-is-prologue/

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 15, 2010 @ 11:11 pm

  11. I mentioned this in the LaRoche thread: 30-year-old who has averaged +15 offense over the last 4 years (and 14.5 the past 2) is suddenly good for only 7 runs? It does seem strange. Bill James has him at +17.

    And Delgado seems like a guy who can contribute more than 1 run of offense if he plays 2/3 of the season, as CHONE estimates. Career wRC+ of 138; 126 as recently as 2008, when he was +22. I know injuries and age take their toll, but why should he fall off a cliff? In limited action last year, he didn’t look like he couldn’t hack it.

    Comment by MBD — January 15, 2010 @ 11:23 pm

  12. When a middle of the pack talent over values themselves and so turns down 17 mill. for 2yrs. from a decent team in a nice city, the snarky script writes itself. If fangraphs has it in for him, then I tip my cap to them. He deserves the MLB equivalent of a Darwin Award.

    Comment by pounded clown — January 16, 2010 @ 2:34 am

  13. Rumor has it Sabean’s all set to offer him 2 years / $8,000,000.

    Comment by JoeR43 — January 16, 2010 @ 4:11 am

  14. There is something wrong with the algorithm if it can essentially overlook Giambi’s age and the fact he is now 3 full season removed from an OPS higher than LaRoche’s, and further that that long-ago season was in a Yankees Stadium which was, at least in the real world, itself favorable to left-handed batters. I’m a fan of Giambi’s, but this algorithm wants me to somehow ignore approximately 5 years or so.

    Comment by JayCee — January 16, 2010 @ 9:09 am

  15. Again, JayCee, I don’t know exactly how CHONE doesn’t things (I wish Sean was here), but I can promise you this: it is NOT overlooking Giambi’s age. There are other factors.

    Maybe the problem is that you’re focusing on OPS. Well, CHONE actually does project LaRoche for a higher OPS than Giambi in 2010. However, as you probably know, OPS isn’t a great run estimator in itself because it underweights OBP. That’s why FanGraphs and elsewhere uses wOBA, which properly weights each event. Giambi’s superiority in getting on-base (reflected in the numbers I cite above, which show Giambi as the superior hitter the last three years combined) is the difference.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — January 16, 2010 @ 12:45 pm

  16. Can Tatis still play third at all?

    Comment by gnomez — January 16, 2010 @ 2:55 pm

  17. See, this is a far better criticism — and far more worthy of respect — that just a random empty-headed assertion that Fangraphs “has it in” for some arbitrary player.

    Comment by joser — January 17, 2010 @ 2:17 pm

  18. Yes. He’s not terribly good but he’d probably be adequate enough as a corner infield/OF backup guy. I’m not sure i’d want him there fulltime (or for more than a couple of hundred innings), though.

    Comment by Felonius_Monk — January 18, 2010 @ 6:51 am

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