What about a player like Jose Reyes? I don’t have the stats in front of me and I am just a neophyte SABR person, but I was under the impression that when he was putting the ball on the ground at the start of his career and beating them out for hits his odds of scoring a run would increase, whereas when he was hitting the ball in the air during recent years he would fly out more? Or do the odds of hitting the home run or the double in the gap (or in his case a triple) outweigh the benefits of getting the ground ball infield hit no matter what?
For line drives, someone needs to come up with a “feet traveled per second” calculation that allows for a range to be defined as a line drive. Feet traveled before it hits the ground would be tricky, especially since some line drives presumably hit the wall or close to it, and some land in no man’s land between the infield and outfield. But I imagine the technology to estimate this is either here or just about.
I don’t know of anything (other than the Field f/x system) that measures the 4th dimension (time) right now. But if you had that, then you could use it to measure the quality of a the whole array of balls in play, not just line drives.
I suppose a player like reyes would benefit somewhat from putting thbe ball on thbe ground. But these calcs are the average values of balls on the ground vs in the air. Reyes is far from tbhe average player, so (if his groundballs produce less outs than the avg player) he is an exception. Also, he wud benefit from hittin g more ld’s himself
Matthew, a question regarding run expectancy. Do you use an average change in run expectancy over the whole 24 base-out situations, or do you calculate the change from the frequency of the different states that an average hitter would face? In other words, a hitter would certainly face more no on, no out base states than bases loaded, for example. Certain base states would come up more often than others.
I hope I worded that in a way that made sense.
Comment by Nathaniel Dawson — February 17, 2010 @ 5:46 pm
Also a significant amount of bat control and a propensity for bunting, both of which complement their skillsets.