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  1. Posada could play for another 10 years.

    He just needs that Pat Borders Cybernetic Reconstruction surgery.

    Comment by Llewdor — March 5, 2010 @ 1:35 pm

  2. You missed a big part of why posada is able to catch.

    he played 2B for almost his entire baseball career. he has 10 years of not catching to keep his legs fresh.

    Comment by Tom B — March 5, 2010 @ 1:45 pm

  3. He’s been a catcher since age 20 and has started nearly 1,800 professional games at catcher. I’m not sure how much you can attribute to his not catching in high school.

    Comment by Joe Pawlikowski — March 5, 2010 @ 1:51 pm

  4. Posada played 421 minor league games at catcher, and only 64 at second base. If you’re talking about what he did as a teen before being drafted, I would imagine a good number of catchers didn’t catch regularly until they got to the minors and the organization decides where they should be.

    Comment by Scott — March 5, 2010 @ 1:54 pm

  5. Another thing to factor in is how much the Yanks DH him on days he doesn’t catch. He could catch 90 games and still post something north of 450 PA if the Yankees choose to bench Johnson sometimes and let Jorge DH. How you think the Yankees choose to treat that situation seems like it should play a decent role in your valuation of Posada as a fantasy player.

    Comment by Rick — March 5, 2010 @ 1:56 pm

  6. You quoted Fisk’s decline from ’85 to ’86, but neglected to point out that in ’88 – ’90 he caught 70, 90 and 116 games and had an OPS of .919, .830, .821 those years.

    So maybe if Posada can survive the next two years, he will experience a renaissance.

    Comment by MikeS — March 5, 2010 @ 2:01 pm

  7. but who also came back and posted a few more excellent partial seasons before retiring.

    Read more, comment less.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 2:03 pm

  8. Another factor to consider in the “games caught” metric is that Jorge quite often comes into games late as a pinch hitter for whoever’s backing him up, and catches the last two or three innings. This happened routinely with Molina last year, where Molina would catch A.J. Burnett, and once Burnett was out of the game Posada would pinch hit for him and catch the rest of the way.

    120 games at catcher doesn’t take nearly the toll on you if 30 of those game consist of two or three innings of actually catching.

    Comment by JimNY — March 5, 2010 @ 2:03 pm

  9. Professional sports teams as good as the Yankees are too smart to overdo one of their best players’ workload. Molina caught a lot last year, and they got Posada’s bat into the lineup late in games. This lessens the workload by a lot, not even accounting for his time at DH. No one knows how Nick Johnson will perform, and regardless, Posada shoudl DH a lot. Consider it similar to what the Cavs tried to do with Shaq this year. The Yankees should win the AL East, and Posada will be fresh for the playoffs

    Comment by Chris CT — March 5, 2010 @ 3:31 pm

  10. Off tangent: If Posada DOES put up one more big season before he starts his gradual decline, is that enough to get him into the HoF??

    Comment by Steve — March 5, 2010 @ 3:54 pm

  11. Oops, sorry, missed that. Don’t know how, I actually read this one.

    Still, 116 games isn’t really a partial season for a catcher, as was 106 behind the plate in ’91. Even 90 is right up there

    No need to be mean either – I just missed a half sentence two paragraphs after the main point about Fisk.

    Comment by MikeS — March 5, 2010 @ 3:56 pm

  12. You’re right, I shouldn’t have been a douche about it. I probably shouldn’t comment here immediately after reading ESPN.com threads.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 4:02 pm

  13. I dunno, that’s pretty tough. The career’s just too short.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 4:06 pm

  14. I’d vote for him, but I agree that the voters will have a hard time with his counting stats.

    The only way I see it is If he had one more big season and then hung around as a DH for another 2-3 years which got him to 300 HRs and close to 2000 hits.

    Comment by Steve — March 5, 2010 @ 4:10 pm

  15. Are you joking? No matter what happens this year, he should and will be in the Hall.

    1. 5 All Star Games
    2. One of the best players on the Dynasty Yankees
    3. 5 Silver Sluggers
    4. 2 Top-10 MVP Votings
    5. His defense is not as bad as what people think.

    For all of this, he should almost be a lock. And the better thing? He might not even be close to done. Arguably one of the top-3 catchers of the decade, Ivan Rodriguez, has slowed down more than Posada has late in his career. If not overshadowed by Jeter, Mariano, Bernie even, he would be a first ballot hall of famer.

    Comment by Chris CT — March 5, 2010 @ 4:12 pm

  16. Not one of those things is a legitimate HOF argument.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 4:14 pm

  17. Look at his numbers. They’re better than Pudge’s. Jorge’s a catcher. He’s a Hall of Famer, bro.

    Comment by Richie Abernathy — March 5, 2010 @ 4:23 pm

  18. Jorge’s a vastly inferior defensive catcher to Pudge, and Rodriguez has 3300 more PA, so you can’t just compare rate stats.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 4:26 pm

  19. Interesting, I’ll respond to each as they were presented.

    1. Irrelevant
    2. Completely utterly irrelevant
    3. Somewhat irrelevant (except it reveals a little about his offensive contributions cmp. to his positional peers)
    4. Totally irrelevant
    5. Laughably irrelevant

    Comment by Travis L — March 5, 2010 @ 4:44 pm

  20. Not Hall of Fame arguments, just things that most people don’t know

    Comment by Chris CT — March 5, 2010 @ 5:18 pm

  21. Never understood why “douche” became synonymous with brutish behavior. Aren’t they cleansing?

    Comment by neuter_your_dogma — March 5, 2010 @ 5:26 pm

  22. But here’s the thing: becoming a hall of fame player is not entirely scientific, as you guys would like to think. One of the biggest arguments, especially with catchers, is longevity. Ivan Rodriguez, (a hall of famer in your minds, I think), is the same age as Posada. They are two of the best catchers of the decade. At the age of 36, in 2007, both of them played over 125 games, and had about the same number of at-bats (Posada with 506, Pudge with 502). Posada batted .338 with 20 HR and 90 RBI. Rodriguez, on the other hand, batted .281 with 11 HR and 63 RBI. Last year, Posada had one of his best offensive years, while Rodriguez barely contributed. Any way you look at it, Posada’s career looks to be far from over, and one of his best arguments for the hall is that he has been so good for so long, and still able to contribute big-time late in his career.

    Comment by Chris CT — March 5, 2010 @ 5:37 pm

  23. You’re referring to your original post? The one that went

    No matter what happens this year, he should and will be in the Hall.

    Hall of Fame Arguments Things most people don’t know.

    For all of this, he should almost be a lock.

    We’re really supposed to believe, based on the leading and trailing sentences, that you weren’t using those points to justify Posada’s HOF candidacy?

    Look, I’m a Yankee fan, and I love Jorge. But I don’t think he’s done enough, and he really has to continue bucking the trend to get it, IMO.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 5:39 pm

  24. Ugh, HTML-fail. The italicized “Hall of Fame arguments” should have had a strikethrough.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 5:39 pm

  25. How can you mention Posada and Rodriguez in the same breath when talking about longevity? Pudge has 50% (!) more career plate appearances than Posada, and it doesn’t matter that he doesn’t have the usual mileage on his body, he’s 38 years old – you just cannot say “any way you look at it, [his] career looks to be far from over.” That’s just not true. Posada playing for significantly more time is would be in the right tail of the distribution, not the center.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 5:42 pm

  26. Posada pretty much split the catching job with Girardi early in his career, so most of his games caught are after the age of 30. What do you mean by your last sentence?

    Comment by Chris CT — March 5, 2010 @ 5:53 pm

  27. It refers to a distribution. Basically, right-tail means it’s the most optimistic outlook, but it doesn’t have a high likelihood.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 5, 2010 @ 6:17 pm

  28. Pat Borders should be the All-Joy Team’s backup catcher.

    Comment by gnomez — March 5, 2010 @ 7:05 pm

  29. Absolutely belongs in the Hall.

    From http://jonahkeri.com/2009/06/02/posada-belongs-in-the-hall/ :

    OPS+
    Piazza 142
    Cochrane 128
    Dickey 127
    Hartnett 126
    Bench 126
    Berra 125
    Campanella 124
    POSADA 124
    Simmons 117
    Fisk 117
    Carter 115
    I-Rod 110

    By OPS+, he is tied for 8th best hitting catcher of all-time, and very snugly fir with #’s two through seven.

    Career batting line of .280/.380/.480 over 6.300+ plate appearances while playing the vast majority of time at catcher is just plain sick.

    He’d need an awful couple of seasons to drop him on the list above.

    Jonah Keri: “It’ll be very interesting to see how the Coop treats Hip Hip Jorge. You would think that one of the most skilled offensive catchers of all-time, playing for one of the great dynasties of all-time, would be a mortal lock. ”

    Yeah, I’d think so, too, Jonah.

    (PS: And Jonah’s argument came out long before the 2009 season concluded, in which Jorge posted another sick campaign at catcher.)

    Comment by Joe D. — March 5, 2010 @ 9:18 pm

  30. About two months ago I wrote about Posada’s Hall of Fame case. This is what I had to say then with regard to why he should be in the Hall, and I’ll repeat it here because its relevant to the conversation:

    Jorge Posada came up for good in 1997 and has been a starter since 1998, and has been a premier offensive catcher ever since. Since 1997 he’s only been below average in league hitting once (1999), and has often been well above average, as his 128 wRC+ would attest to. Defensively he’s been mostly average throughout his career but not a liability. Being a capable catcher with strong offense is a very difficult combination to find in this league, and a very valuable one. I’d stop short of putting on a full-on Posada campaign — I’m not determined that he absolutely SHOULD be in the Hall — However, if I had a vote and there were not 10 more qualified players eligible on the ballot, I would use one of my blank slots to put a check next to Posada’s name. I think he’s earned it.

    Comment by Larry Smith Jr. — March 5, 2010 @ 10:04 pm

  31. Before he signed his last contract Yankee fans were looking elsewhere for a catcher. Posada resigned, his hitting picked up again, and all the talk about replacing him, which will not be easy, went away. Catchers are not that plentiful in the bigs, which is why the Red Sox jumped on Victor Martinez when V-Teks hit disappeared, along with his ability to toss out base runners. The Yankees have Montero in the minors, but the word is that they would like to see Montero be able to play OF so they can get his bat into the line-up. Montero’s catching skill good, not great. or at least not as good as his batting skills. Personally, I believe the Yankees made a mistake by signing Nick Johnson to DH this year, when they could have gotten a back up catcher with a better stick than Jose Molina’s to catcher 50 games and had Posada DH more.
    Jake Fox comes to mind. But there is another Montero in AZ I wouldn’t mind seeing in pinstripes if he players like he did last season. Miguel Montero.

    Comment by Ted Hoppe — March 6, 2010 @ 12:03 am

  32. How can your argument be that he won’t make the HOF because you don’t think he will play long enough? Especially when he has shown no signs of any serious decline in his contributions?

    Comment by Chris CT — March 6, 2010 @ 11:27 am

  33. Did you read the article about what happens to 38 y.o. catchers who did well at age 37? Even if they haven’t “shown signs” of slowing down, they can go off a cliff at any moment. And if the comparison is to Pudge, yeah, he lacks in the duration department.

    Comment by Kevin S. — March 6, 2010 @ 11:59 am

  34. The problem with the article is it doesn’t give us any other reason to expect a downfall from Posada outside of his age and age-related injuries. Outside of Fisk, the other comparisons are poor in that the players were never (or not recently) Posada’s peers offensively. Looking at Posada’s numbers, the only real slide he had at age 37 was the lowest BB% of his career along with a spike in K%. However, his wOBA was still second to Joe Mauer among catchers.

    As far as the comparison to Pudge, Posada is the slightly better offensive player using the best 10 year stretch of their careers. Pudge’s advantage in “counting stats” is based on a long stretch of below average offensive production. Posada’s Hall of Fame worthiness will come down to whether voters of the time are willing to bypass average counting stats for exceptional rate stats.

    Comment by kevinM — March 8, 2010 @ 2:31 am

  35. That’s silly. The sample of 38 y.o. catchers who did well at age 37 is so small that drawing a conclusion from it is of very little value. You might as well look at the performance of catchers from Puerto Rico with their own charitable foundation who have played with only one team for their entire career.

    Comment by Will — March 8, 2010 @ 7:49 am

  36. Rat face Posada, or Pass Ball Posada should not ever be mentioned as a HOF’er, ever. He has played in a bloated line $$, that has protected him. To group him with Pudge should put you in line for the Twinkie wagon. Stupid Yank fans want Ken Phelps in the Hall too, morons

    Comment by joe — April 15, 2010 @ 10:56 am

  37. Posada has 4 rings, which he one before he earned more than $2mil a year. He is extremely similar to Fisk and Dickey career wise(according to baseball-reference), and meets all of the baseball-reference qualifications for a HOF career (he’s short on gray ink because he’s never really led the league in anything).

    Keep your hate to yourself, you can’t keep someone out that has been as successful as Jorge has.

    Comment by Tom B — April 15, 2010 @ 2:17 pm

  38. For Fantasy, yeah, and if this were the Rotographs part of the site it would probably be given more attention in the article.

    It is a big factor in his overall WAR, though, and that obviously matters outside fantasy. But then you have to factor in the (probably negative, at least offensively) contribution of Francisco Cervelli unless they bring up Montero sooner rather than later.

    Given their injury histories, does anyone want to lay bets on which of Posada or Johnson goes on the DL first and who racks up more total days on it?

    Comment by Joser — April 15, 2010 @ 4:42 pm

  39. It’s just unconscious misogyny / vaginophobia (even if “douche-bag” originated as an equal-opportunity alternative to [s]cum-bag). It’s odd how some term that’s been around for years suddenly zooms in popular usage.

    Comment by Joser — April 15, 2010 @ 4:55 pm

  40. Right now he’s a little short, according to all three of the HOF metrics tracked over at B-R. Of course, he automatically gets a finger on the scale thanks to being a high-profile Yankee for so long. And he’s close enough that another good season catching (plus whatever he can eke out as a DH after that) probably puts him over the top. But I doubt he’s a first ballot lock, given many of the voters’ odd (and indefensible and infuriating) insistence on not voting for anybody on the first ballot, and various other imaginary “inner halls” and related BS.

    Comment by Joser — April 15, 2010 @ 5:07 pm

  41. There are lies, damn lies, and statistics…

    So, nine men have caught more than 100 games in their age 37 seasons, but only five caught more than 100 in their age 38 season.
    But three of those nine (Posada, Rodriguez and Varitek) caught more than 100 games last year, and therefore haven’t played their age 38 season!

    So really five of six (83%) who caught more than 100 games at age 37 who have lived through their age 38 season caught over 100 games the next year. And the sixth is Carlton Fisk, who did catch more than 100 games in a season after age 38.
    I wonder if 83% of the 25 year old catchers who caught over 100 games returned to catch more tha 100 games the next year…

    Comment by Tom L — April 15, 2010 @ 7:10 pm

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