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  1. If the Nats are smart, they’ll keep him closer to 125 IP in his rookie season. His mechanical concerns are significant enough that I wouldn’t dare let him pitch more than that in a first pro season at his age.

    I also think they would be stupid to put him the rotation opening day, for financial reasons. Two weeks isn’t going to hurt, especially with a starting pitcher who is going to get shut down later in the season anyway.

    Comment by OremLK — March 10, 2010 @ 11:23 am

  2. I can’t see him not getting a K per inning, especially in the NL.

    Comment by Fett42 — March 10, 2010 @ 11:44 am

  3. at 150 IP I’d say
    16 HRA
    51 Non Intentional Walks
    3 HBP
    163 K’s

    Gives a FIP of 3.49

    If I was a betting man I’d take the over on this.

    Comment by Matthew Nolan — March 10, 2010 @ 12:01 pm

  4. I agree based on his stuff.

    Only way I could see <1/ip is if they coach him similar to Porcello '09. If he tries to pitch deeper into games by pitching more to contact, could have a rookie-season anomaly in 2010 certain to be his career low.

    I know Cabrera wasn't in midseason form or anything, but he still got abused in that at bat. Stras 'pitching to contact' might even get a k per inning.

    Comment by Jimbo — March 10, 2010 @ 12:03 pm

  5. Wow, I think sometimes people are a little too analytic with this stuff instead of trusting your eyes. Keith Law, a very stat heavy scout for ESPN, basically started with just saying wow. This guy is special, think Prior and pray for an injury free career. I’d take something much closer to a 3.00 era and north of a 9 K/9. His stuff is better than all but a few pitchers in the league.

    Comment by Joe — March 10, 2010 @ 12:16 pm

  6. I hardly think this is analytical.

    Comment by Bryan Smith — March 10, 2010 @ 12:17 pm

  7. I agree, there’s really no point of rushing him or overworking him when you’re going to finish in last place anyway.

    Best case scenario is he dominates and you still finish last, worst case scenario is the inning jump leads to an injury and you still finish last. Really the only benefit is that it would lead to putting more butts in the seats every 5th day.

    Comment by Tobias F. — March 10, 2010 @ 12:20 pm

  8. Also, on a podcast last week, I called Stras the #1 prospect in baseball. At least I think I did. I certainly am not bearish on his career.

    Comment by Bryan Smith — March 10, 2010 @ 12:21 pm

  9. Would it be possible to do this for Aroldis Chapman as well. All indications are that he will be a Red at some point this season, possibly sooner rather than later.

    Comment by RMR — March 10, 2010 @ 12:54 pm

  10. I think its entertaining and interesting, which is why I visit the cite.

    Another question I’d like to see someone tackle is this: who will have a lower ERA in 2010, Roy Halladay or an Average Pitcher who got to face only the Mariners offense?

    Comment by Steve Balboni — March 10, 2010 @ 1:35 pm

  11. Maybe not, but even pretending to have any idea of how he is going to do in the majors based off of college and some AZL stats is kind of ridiculous. There’s just not a lot to go on, and sometimes you have to trust your eyes.

    Comment by Joe — March 10, 2010 @ 3:19 pm

  12. I’ve seen him pitch several times and what’s scary is he had only average stuff and poor command yesterday. For him anyway.

    Hard to believe he can beat Lincecum’s 07 Fresno numbers (will anyone ever?) but I’d say their MLB rookie years will be similar. Tim went 146 innings and struck out 150.

    Comment by Snakes — March 10, 2010 @ 6:41 pm

  13. i predict 161 GS 161 CG 161 SHO 1449 IP 4347 K.

    he can rest the last day.

    Comment by aaron — March 10, 2010 @ 6:46 pm

  14. And the Nationals still finish 72-90.

    Comment by Will — March 10, 2010 @ 7:00 pm

  15. Why are you picking a home runs allowed number out of a hat? Why not project a HR/FB ratio and take into account an expected opposition flyball percentage and his strikeout rate to calculate a forecasted estimate? 18 home runs allowed in just 150 innings, given his strikeout rate projection and ground ball ability would lead to a ridiculously inflated HR/FB ratio.

    Comment by Mike Podhorzer — March 10, 2010 @ 7:12 pm

  16. K: 133 (8k/9)
    BB: 55 (3.3 /9)
    HR: I’m too lazy to do all the math–it works out to “MLB average per (BF – K -BB -HBP)” I’m just assuming an average FB% and an average HR/FB.
    HBP: 5

    Comment by Fresh Hops — March 11, 2010 @ 12:26 pm

  17. Not too sure how I found this blog but glad I did find it. Think I was looking for something else on google. Don’t know I agree 100% with what you say, but have bookmaked and will come back to read to see if you add any more posts. Good blog

    Comment by betting exchange software — March 15, 2010 @ 7:52 am

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