FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. I’m probably a bigger fan of Venable than most people but when I look at a positive UZR and a .334 wOBA (.372 away from Petco although his road BABIP will probably regress) in his first regular stint in the majors I don’t think it’s that unlikely that he can at least be an average player.

    Also, while Nick Hundley may not develop into all that much I’d say that he’s better than Yorvit and barring injury will see more playing time.

    Comment by Drakos — March 16, 2010 @ 2:47 pm

  2. I’m going to disagree with most of your assessment.

    First and foremost, to say this team can’t compete in 2011 is ridiculous. That’s a lot of time for Cabrera, Headley, Gonzalez, Hundley, Blanks, Leblanc, Latos, etc. to progress, and that’s not even including the minor league talent the Padres have that can reach Petco by next season. And it isn’t as if the roster is locked at $36 million for 2011.

    I believe you took the most pessimistic outlook for the Padres possible: you mention Young and Garland possibly being worth nothing of value of season; yes, but there’s also the chance that Young reverts to All-Star form, Garland logs 200 servicable innings, and a few of the youngsters step forward to bolster the middle of the rotation. Coupling that with perhaps the best bullpen in baseball and an up-and-coming lineup, I don’t think it’s out of the possibility that the Padres win 85 games this season.

    And I don’t understand why you say ‘limited upside in the starting rotation for the foreseeable future’. Mat Latos, Wade Leblanc, and the plethora of shot-in-the-darks the Padres have at the tail end of the rotation/AAA could all end up being valuable arms this season and certainly in 2011.

    Comment by Marver — March 16, 2010 @ 3:06 pm

  3. Do these expected win totals factor in the mid season trade of Gonzalez? maybe the Vegas line isnt totally off.

    Comment by PR — March 16, 2010 @ 3:42 pm

  4. If he’s dealt halfway through the year, he’d have to be a 16 WAR player and the Padres would have to be getting back something totalling 0 WAR for that to be the difference.

    Vegas doesn’t mind setting odds that smart money can beat, their concern is balancing bets on either end. Most people likely see the Padres and are instinctly pessimistic, and the Padres fanbase/Padres betting constituency doesn’t extend north of San Diego county (OC), west of San Diego county (Pacific), or south of San Diego county (Mexico).

    Comment by Marver — March 16, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

  5. What about Aaron Poreda?

    Comment by Realist — March 17, 2010 @ 5:54 pm

  6. Arthritis in your pooch can be a major hassle that many people never even think of in senior dogs.

    Comment by Florrie Schadt — March 25, 2010 @ 6:58 pm

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