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  1. Dombrowski*

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:03 pm

  2. Furthermore, this may be a bit Tigers-specific, but is it fair to count the 50-70M coming off the books at the end of the year in future talent? I mean, that’s probably enough to sign Lee, Beckett, and Crawford (assuming they spend all of what’s coming off the books)…that has to change things quite a bit too.

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:05 pm

  3. Thanks.

    Comment by Bryan Smith — March 19, 2010 @ 3:06 pm

  4. Omar: I think that’s something that Dave considers in his reviews more than what we do in the Future Talent section. I did try to mention the money and the necessity to build an offense via free agency in the piece, though.

    Comment by Bryan Smith — March 19, 2010 @ 3:07 pm

  5. Yeah, I’m no Tigers fan, but I really feel that they kind of get short changed by that in these future and current talent columns. Yes, they’ve made some…questionable moves this offseason. However, they have a lot of money coming off the books in an offseason with a few good prizes on the FA market.

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:13 pm

  6. To my knowledge the most common mistake in misspelling his name is switching the “o” to a “u”

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:14 pm

  7. Something else that should be acknowledged is Dombrowski and Chadd’s ability lately to deal prospects at the peak of their value. Can’t really be debated that Miller, Maybin, and Joyce have not lived up to expectations since leaving the Tigers’ system.

    Comment by Eric — March 19, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

  8. So he’s getting good at collecting poor prospects and flipping them? I don’t know if I’d be excited about that…

    Comment by Tom B — March 19, 2010 @ 3:19 pm

  9. You would be if you had gotten Miguel Cabrera when he was 24 for a centerfielder who still hasn’t stuck in the big leagues and a pitcher who can’t crack the rotation. Miguel Cabrera has been worth 8.4 Wins Above Replacement total in his two seasons with us. Maybin and Miller have combined for 4 since we traded them.

    Comment by Byron — March 19, 2010 @ 3:27 pm

  10. Who, how, or why is Alex Avila in the “only going to be less than a 2.0 WAR player?” You’re incredibly low on both. Sizemore is better than Polanco offensively, and worse defensively. In his club control years, I don’t see how he can’t been above average player given a small positional adjustments and a keen eye at the plate with enough pop.

    As for Avila, if he starts 75% of games in any given year, the positional and replacement adjustments will easily put him over the 2 WAR mark. Gerald Laird was at about 60% playing time last year and accumulated 9 runs in positional adjustment and 16 in replacement adjustments which is 25 runs already before you get to batting, where he’s likely above-average for the position and close to league average, in my opinion.

    Comment by Mike Rogers — March 19, 2010 @ 3:30 pm

  11. Also, Fields is already moved off the SS position and into CF. He’ll be starting in Low-A West Michigan.

    Comment by Mike Rogers — March 19, 2010 @ 3:31 pm

  12. Just saying that he’s been shrewd evaluating progress. Every team has it’s share of high end busts each yr. How many 1st round picks even become MLB regulars? I’d bet it’s less than half. Better to sell high than sit on a player that’s already peaked.

    Comment by Eric — March 19, 2010 @ 3:34 pm

  13. I wouldn’t call Miller or Maybin poor prospects, they were toolsy players drafted high. One was a high schooler with tools out the ass, he recognized his weaknesses (K rates and GB rates) and the other was a LHP coming out of UNC with two plus pitches and seemingly good command. They were highly regarded selections when they made them and while they haven’t lived up to expectations, tough shit…that happens sometimes with prospects.

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:34 pm

  14. I disagree with the idea that the Tigers have an uneven farm system because David Chadd prefers pitchers in the early rounds. If anything, it’s more about the willingness of the organization to spend big early on a couple pitchers that have dropped to them for signability reasons (Andrew Miller, Rick Porcello and Jacob Turner all fit that description), which has left less money for the rest of the draft to get higher ceiling guys.

    I may be biased, but I have a hard time figuring out how a team with Verlander, Porcello and Scherzer in the MLB rotation for the next five years, two very high ceiling arms in the minors (Crosby and Turner), and Cabrera in the every day line-up would rank #22, particularly when the same organization has the capability of having a top 5 payroll with a ton of money to spend in the near future.

    Comment by Mike — March 19, 2010 @ 3:38 pm

  15. Totally agreed Mike…at least in the first paragraph. They seem to favor BPA pretty highly, usually it’s high ceiling high school pitchers who drop to teams picking where the Tigers pick, so that’s who they take. That being said, I think you’re probably too high on Porcello and Scherzer, but I agree 22 is probably too low. I feel that they’re in better shape than at least the Reds and the Os…probably a few other NL Teams too. I’m thinking Dave will explain this in his main column though.

    Comment by Omar — March 19, 2010 @ 3:48 pm

  16. So many people overrate Avila for some reason. When the guy was called up, he went on a 5 game terror and then pitchers figured him out. He batted .200 the rest of the way and tried to hit a home run every time he went to bat. His defensive skills need refining as well.

    I have no problem with him backing up Laird this year, but he has a long way to go before he should get the large majority of games behind the plate.

    Comment by mmwatkin — March 19, 2010 @ 4:35 pm

  17. I don’t know — it has been among Kenny Williams’ specialties for a while, too.

    Comment by Professional Editor — March 19, 2010 @ 4:49 pm

  18. Uhh no, Avila really doesn’t have a long way to go at all. He isn’t close to Laird defensively because Laird is probably the best in the game, but he’s pretty much just about average. As for his hitting skills, yes he hit a small rough patch but you can’t just ignore his minor league skills plus the fact that he had a very good run in the majors.

    The amount of people that are down of Sizemore (unlikely to hit 2 WAR over his cost controlled years, seriously?) is getting really annoying. He’s got decent pop and patience, and he’s a decent enough defender.

    Comment by Stringer Bell — March 19, 2010 @ 6:20 pm

  19. his defensive skills do need refining — he became a catcher half way through college. I’m not judging his skills based on his call up, rather his good walk rates and above-average pop in the minors. He’s underrated. I will say that I’m speaking towards his entire 6 years of club control, not just next year.

    Comment by Mike Rogers — March 19, 2010 @ 7:06 pm

  20. I agree with you on Sizemore Stringer. His MLE based off of his minor league numbers last year scares me slightly, but at basically every level he’s had patience, decent power for a middle infielder, and the ability to hit for average. He’s done this consistently throughout the minors. Until I see him fail to hit, I assume that he’s going to hit.

    Comment by Larry Smith Jr. — March 19, 2010 @ 8:26 pm

  21. Dombruwski?

    Comment by Reuben — March 20, 2010 @ 3:57 pm

  22. @ Eric – Excellent point. I’ll add Humberto Sanchez (Sheffield trade), Gorkys Hernandez (Renteria) and Guillermo Moscoso (Laird) to the mix of prospects he’s traded at the right time. The only exception i can think of is Jair Jurrjens and when they traded him he was looking like his shoulder could fall off at any time.

    I’m curious to see how Dombrowski fills in next year’s roster. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if he trades a piece or two from the Crosby/Oliver/Turner/Random power reliever group to counteract their lack of position player depth. And there’s a decent chance he’ll trade exactly the right guys.

    Comment by brett — March 20, 2010 @ 5:53 pm

  23. I’m going to guess he meant Dumbrowski…

    Comment by eric palmer — March 20, 2010 @ 7:18 pm

  24. You could make strong arguments that Turner, Crosby, Sizemore, Jackson being in most top 100 lists. Oliver, Strieby, and Avila wouldn’t be far off. Turner and Crosby are scouts dreams, and there’s a lot of buzz on Oliver. Avila’s defense has improved by leaps and bounds the past couple years, to the point where it might be close to average. Detroit sportswriters are saying Jackson’s D has been flawless in ST, and scouts like his improvement at the plate.

    Sizemore of course has the injury issues, and you wonder if that will slow him down, especially to start the season. Strieby is of course blocked at 1B, and I’m not sure everyone is sold on him yet. And who knows how well Avila will actually hit.

    Comment by the fume — March 20, 2010 @ 8:54 pm

  25. Poor attempt at a joke?

    Comment by Reuben — March 21, 2010 @ 4:13 pm

  26. don’t coun’t out joyce… he’s got every chance to be a 3 WAR regular cost-controlled throughout his peak… that is a very valuable assest

    Comment by wolverine119 — March 23, 2010 @ 8:43 pm

  27. i think this is a little low for detroit.. sure they don’t have impact offensive prospects.. but the group of Streiby, Avila, Sizemore, Jackson, rayburn,and C. THomas are all guys that are very close to being 2 WAR guys making the league minimum … pitching is the most valuable asset inn baseball and i’ll put they’re young pitching up against ANYONES.. Schertzer , Porecello, Turner, Crosby , Oliver all project as top of the rotation guys… throw inn villareal, figaro, and Bonnie as future back end fillers …. Perry, Coke, Schlerith, Weinheart, Satterwhite,and Ni round out a cost controlled bullpen… every guy i listed has 1 year of service time or less… with Verlander and Cabrera already on board and the large group of cost controlled talent det. has many options going forward.. i would expect them to be a world series team 2-3 years from now… a playoff rotation of Verlander, Porcello, Turner, and Crosby will frieghten ANY team

    Comment by wolverine119 — March 23, 2010 @ 9:06 pm

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