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  1. Do those projection systems account for the additional 25 pounds of muscle that Colvin added this offseason and how it would affect his slugging percentage? Colvin made the team because he looks like a completely different player than the one who had coffee in September.

    As for the Cubs’ decision to carry him and probably give him 10 PAs a week, that’s a different story altogether.

    Comment by Brett W. — March 29, 2010 @ 8:59 am

  2. To be thorough and clear, his K/BB rate is still horrible, and he still needs seasoning, but his progress since the fall has been amazing.

    Comment by Brett W. — March 29, 2010 @ 9:01 am

  3. Brett brings up a good point. One of the reasons the projections systems may be low on him is that in late 2009, when he was called up, he suffered from fatigue almost the entire time. So, this summer, the coaches had him add the muscle so he could make it through the whole season.

    Still, I think he should be in AAA at most.

    Comment by Bradley — March 29, 2010 @ 10:09 am

  4. I don’t think that the 20 ML at bats really effect the projections that much. Nor do the systems have anyway to account for 25 pounds of muscle being added, other than many young players get stronger over time. Nor is it always obvious what additional muscle mass will do for a player.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — March 29, 2010 @ 10:18 am

  5. Zero walks this Spring…that bodes well….

    Comment by Norm — March 29, 2010 @ 10:55 am

  6. Colvin didn’t make the team in a vacuum. Guys like Sam Fuld and Brad Snyder were ahead of him going into camp, but, well, they’re not good.

    That said, if he doesn’t figure out the strike zone fast, he’ll find himself in Iowa.

    Comment by Harry Pavlidis — March 29, 2010 @ 11:24 am

  7. Yep, that’s what I was going to say. 62 AB’s and 0 walks. Yeesh. There’s a reason Colvin doesn’t show up on any prospect lists anymore.

    Comment by Pete — March 29, 2010 @ 12:15 pm

  8. I think Fuld is fine as a backup CFer. He fields well, and and the plate he is disciplined and can get on base, and run pretty well. He lacks power, but that’s why he’s a fifth OFer..

    Comment by dcs — March 29, 2010 @ 1:07 pm

  9. Sweet Lou in the Herald today: “You reward performance in the spring. If not, there’s no sense in keeping statistics or records or anything. Just get in shape and play.”

    So, so, so close to getting it. And yet …

    Comment by JackWeiland — March 29, 2010 @ 1:23 pm

  10. on one hand – 0 walks are bad
    on the other – You dont get off the island takin’ walks.

    He’s still just the 5th OF – if he wiffs too much, he goes to AAA. You have to spend April finding out what you have so you can figure out where you want to take the team from there. We know what Hoffpauir and Fuld can do at this point so might as well start with the guy with the most percieved (flawed as it may be) upside.

    Comment by Max — March 29, 2010 @ 2:37 pm

  11. I hear that he’s feeling better than he ever has. That he’s feeling grittier and more magical too.

    Comment by Reuben — March 29, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

  12. Yeah and nobody seems to be at all concerned about this mysterous 25lbs of muscle.

    Comment by Adam — March 29, 2010 @ 4:36 pm

  13. He’ll be the guy to demote when Starlin’s ready this year. Or the guy that gets showcased for a bullpen arm. Regardless, he’s not in the teams future plans.

    Comment by J — March 29, 2010 @ 4:45 pm

  14. yeah and nobody seems to be using caustic satire or sarcasm either..

    Comment by George — March 29, 2010 @ 5:59 pm

  15. The Cubs aren’t concerned about it because it was gained while working out with their strength and conditioning guy the entire offseason.

    Comment by strictbusiness14 — March 29, 2010 @ 6:08 pm

  16. Calling him the 5th OF is a matter of perspective. Defensively, he’s the 4th OF since Nady can’t be anything more than a bat off the bench for the first couple months of the season (recovering from TJ surgery).

    Also, he’s not the only guy with low walk totals. Just on the Cubs there’s Marlon Byrd (1), Xavier Nady (1), Alfonso Soriano (0), and Aramis Ramirez (0). Then, there’s also guys like Hanley Ramirez (2), Kevin Youkilis (2), Dustin Pedroia (2), Alexi Ramirez (2), Edgar Renteria (2), Pablo Sandoval (2), Carlos Quentin (2), Corey Hart (2), Derek Jeter (2), Victor Martinez (2), Jay Bruce (2), David Eckstein (2), Chris Coghlan (1), Ryan Zimmerman (1), Shane Victorino (1), Buster Posey (1), JJ Hardy (1), Howie Kendrick (1), AJ Pierzynski (0), Nick Markakis (0), Adam LaRoche (0), Christian Guzman (0), and Garrett Atkins (0) who have done alright for themselves.

    It’s exactly what you said, “You don’t get off the island takin’ walks.” Hits are more memorable than walks when guys are competing for spots and this is the time of year that guys are getting their swing down. Once the season starts, everyone’s going to be a little more cautious at the plate.

    Comment by strictbusiness14 — March 29, 2010 @ 6:45 pm

  17. A left handed bat with some pop, a decent glove at all 3 OF spots and speed seems like a decent 4th outfielder even without good plate discipline. If he gets off to a solid start and keeps the confidence from the spring he could be a contributor.

    If he doesn’t then Fuld or Hoffpauir will still be there.

    Comment by Mike Z — March 29, 2010 @ 7:01 pm

  18. I sure hope your right my friend. But a career minor league walk percentage of 5.5% doesn’t bode well for him to be an everyday player.

    Comment by Pete — March 30, 2010 @ 2:57 pm

  19. strictbusiness14, most of the (productive) guys on your list have a history of at least drawing the occasional walk. Colvin doesn’t, and therefore his Spring Training performance in that regard should be more of a red flag. And if the Cubs are happy with Cristian Guzman-like production out of a corner outfielder, then they are no doubt even more doomed than the most pessimistic of us believed.

    I’ll also add that the expression is “You don’t walk off the island” or “Nobody walks off the island,” both of which work much better in the comic sense. I’m not trying to be overly nit-picky, and I know you were just quoting, but the humor in someone literally being unable to walk off an island is a big part of what makes that particular adage popular.

    Comment by — April 2, 2010 @ 3:16 pm

  20. “Hits are more memorable than walks when guys are competing for spots and this is the time of year that guys are getting their swing down.”

    Not a good excuse for having bad discipline.

    Comment by Zack — April 3, 2010 @ 3:42 pm

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