FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. The A’s have 5 team HR yet lead the AL (and are 2nd in MLB) in runs scored.

    Comment by PL — April 13, 2010 @ 12:05 pm

  2. “The Astros are terribly impatient.”

    or

    “The Astros are terrible.”

    Whichever.

    Comment by The Hit Dog — April 13, 2010 @ 12:24 pm

  3. Johnson did not get more money b/c MLB is racist.

    Comment by O-Dawg — April 13, 2010 @ 12:42 pm

  4. Ordonez has 2 HR already (9 last year) and how about Scott Podsednik with now 6 SB already?

    Comment by CSJ — April 13, 2010 @ 1:24 pm

  5. Albert Pujols has more RBI than the Astros’ team has runs scored.

    Comment by AnotherFan — April 13, 2010 @ 1:28 pm

  6. I really hope you’re being sarcastic.

    Comment by DavidCEisen — April 13, 2010 @ 1:49 pm

  7. That is both amazing and tragic at the same time. How long before the Astros outscore Pujols?

    Comment by ambill10 — April 13, 2010 @ 1:53 pm

  8. Thus why I wouldn’t trade Albert for the whole Astros lineup.

    Comment by Jimbo — April 13, 2010 @ 2:00 pm

  9. Yeah, SBs are such a low-frequency event in general (relatively speaking) that the numbers and leaders can swing all over the place from month to month and even season to season, but the SB leaderboard so far this year is especially amusing.

    Comment by joser — April 13, 2010 @ 2:18 pm

  10. Losses in the bank.
    Let’s say you thought the Mariners were a true talent 84 win team this year before the season started. You can later use your own true talent level, but for this example I am going with 84, A quick glance at the 2010 Standings shows the Mariners with a record of 2-6 going into play today. It would be silly to change your true talent level projection based off of only 8 games. Therefore with 154 remaining games, you need to adjust that 84 win level down to just under 82 wins (154 * .5185) = 79.85 + 2 = (let’s call it) 82 wins.

    So even if you felt the Mariners are an 84 win true talent level team going into the season, you have to adjust that down to 82 wins due to them already having 6 losses in the bank after 8 games. A similar exercise can be done for other teams.

    Let’s say you had the A’s as an 80 win team. They are 6-2. We get…
    (154 * .4938) + 6 = 82 wins. In this scenario the A’s have caught the Mariners in “true talent” projected wins.

    So even though there have only been 8 or so games played and samples are too small for most individual player stats, there are some pre-season projections that need to be modified.

    Comment by xeifrank — April 13, 2010 @ 2:22 pm

  11. The Mariners invented true talent

    Comment by Steve — April 13, 2010 @ 2:26 pm

  12. Why would you modify pre-season projections with data from the season?

    Comment by Jackle Mackle — April 13, 2010 @ 2:30 pm

  13. It’s definitely sarcasm. “O-Dawg” was alluding to Orlando Hudson’s comments within the last 24 hours.

    Comment by Detroit Michael — April 13, 2010 @ 2:32 pm

  14. Because they become more accurate that way? He’s not saying that the new projections are pre-season projections (they obviously aren’t) but that with a week’s worth of games already played, that has an effect on what people thought would happen. If someone predicted the Yankees to go 162-0 and they lost a game, then that projection would necessarily be wrong. This clearly isn’t that extreme, but if a team projected to go sub-.500 starts hot then their season projection ought to be adjusted for that hot streak, because although they may go on a losing streak later on and compensate for it, that’s only a possibility, while the hot streak is a certainty because it already happened.

    Comment by quincy0191 — April 13, 2010 @ 2:42 pm

  15. how about this:

    colby rasmus is really good.

    Comment by tg — April 13, 2010 @ 2:43 pm

  16. If Kelly Johnson has a great year (and based on this start, he will), sabermetrically inclined Braves fans like myself will exhibit wry smiles and wag our fingers in the direction of Frank Wren, “I told you so” on our lips and in our hearts.

    Although Prado is playing for league minimum, so the loss isn’t acute.

    Comment by beer me — April 13, 2010 @ 2:54 pm

  17. Maybe for the same reason that the game graphs here on Fangraphs get updated with each batter as the game goes along?

    Comment by Paul B — April 13, 2010 @ 3:00 pm

  18. And Prado’s been almost as good as KJ has been.

    Comment by Temo — April 13, 2010 @ 3:02 pm

  19. As a Braves fan, I’ve watched KJ a ton over the past few years. He’s a very streaky hitter and I would be very surprised if he beats his CHONE prediction of .350 wOBA at the end of the year.

    Comment by Temo — April 13, 2010 @ 3:08 pm

  20. It’s tough because, as a Braves fan, I’d like to keep both, but it’s also hard to keep Kelly Johnson on the bench when he’s only able to play second. They had two above average second basemen, and they kept the guy who who was cheaper, and had experience playing the corner infield spots, so it’s hard to fault.

    Still, it’s apparent from the contract that Kelly signed that the league didn’t properly evaluate his value, so keeping him around wouldn’t have helped the Braves get any in trade, which they did try before releasing him.

    Comment by Bronnt — April 13, 2010 @ 3:13 pm

  21. Temo, that’s fine, but you do realize what the market value of a defensively average 2B with a .350 wOBA is, right?

    Comment by beer me — April 13, 2010 @ 3:26 pm

  22. I recall M’s fans on here talking about the tingling feeling running down their legs after the Bradley trade. How’s that working out? Question: How unfair is it that Elijah Dukes is begging to catch on with a Mexican league team while Milton has $18m left on his deal?

    Comment by Paul — April 13, 2010 @ 3:55 pm

  23. Quincy and Paul are correct and have stated pretty clearly why. The losses and wins accululated so far are “money in the bank”. This point was hapred on by the author last year after the Mariners hot start. The wins were “money in the bank”. This year, the early losses are also “money in the bank”. Reading this article reminded me of that. :)
    vr, Xeifrank

    Comment by xeifrank — April 13, 2010 @ 4:22 pm

  24. Elijah Dukes:

    Called the mother of his kids dawg

    Threatened to kill them, and he was not bullshittin

    I think it’s pretty fair.

    Comment by regfairfield — April 13, 2010 @ 4:48 pm

  25. You’re right. The Bradley trade was stupid. Also, the Twins should have let Denard Span go instead of signing him long term. Jay Bruce, Shane Victorino, Jose Lopez, Alexei Ramirez, and Carlos Lee should all also be cut.

    Comment by Steven Ellingson — April 13, 2010 @ 4:55 pm

  26. My point is not that Elijah Dukes is a model citizen, but how is calling someone “dawg” either a crime or worse than Milton flipping off fans in what has to now be half the stadiums in MLB? Or bum rushing the press box after he heard an announcer said something negative about him? Dukes was caught on tape saying some very bad things, and what he did should never be tolerated, but at least it was emotionally charged and involved him feeling his children could be taken from him. Milton has taken aggressive actions towards perfect strangers, repeatedly, in front of thousands of witnesses, in addition to running from the police. No, not fair.

    Comment by Paul — April 13, 2010 @ 4:56 pm

  27. The man has multiple assault charges against him. That’s a little worse than throwing a water bottle in the vicinity of a guy who threw it at him.

    Comment by regfairfield — April 13, 2010 @ 5:05 pm

  28. Exactly – losing Carlos Silva is going to kill the Mariners this year.

    Comment by Everett — April 13, 2010 @ 7:32 pm

  29. “I recall M’s fans on here talking about the tingling feeling running down their legs after the Bradley trade. How’s that working out?”

    M’s fans still have that tingling feeling.

    Comment by ThundaPC — April 13, 2010 @ 7:59 pm

  30. In the first sentence of this article: “the samples are too small to make any meaningful conclusions.”

    Comment by Chris A. — April 13, 2010 @ 8:58 pm

  31. Take a look at each of their seasons in the majors. Dukes has only had one season in which he had a positive WAR. Bradley on the other hand has only had one season with a negative WAR. As for legal or league problems, I admit to not being as well versed in Bradley’s problems, but I do not know of any actual physical altercations (although, there may be some). Dukes has has multiple assault charges against teammates, relatives, and significant others. So, one player gets upset and confronts others (yelling or giving the finger), and the other player throws Gatorade bottles at your head, or chokes you, or texts a picture of a gun to you with the phrase “You dead dawg”.

    Add production with legal troubles, and that is why Bradley is playing in MLB and Dukes is not. The amount of Bradley’s contract cannot be blamed on the Mariners. They simply traded one sunk cost for another. But they felt there was upside in the one they received back since they needed a middle of the order bat and a LF.

    Comment by Boxkutter — April 14, 2010 @ 6:30 am

  32. I’m not saying the league should give up on Dukes, but Dukes is alot more than just a bad guy in the club house. He’s a bad guy. I hope he gets help, but until that time I wouldn’t want him anywhere near my team. You can’t compare him and Bradley. Bradley’s surly, Dukes is a thug.

    Comment by Bill — April 14, 2010 @ 11:08 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Current ye@r *

Close this window.

0.771 Powered by WordPress