Let’s remember that DIPS theory rests on the idea that all MLB-quality pitchers have roughly the same ability to prevent hits on balls in play and to prevent home runs on fly balls. The fact that Buckner has failed to establish himself in the big leagues as he enters his age-26 season indicates that he might not be a MLB-quality pitcher. The facts that he has had consistently high BABIPs in the minors and majors and consistently high home run per fly ball rates in the majors further support this notion. Buckner may not be a major-league pitcher and DIPS may not apply to him. He might just not be very good.
“Confirmed”? Hardly. No decision had been made public as of last night, and the link posted seemed to be pure speculation.
It may well *be* Benson, of course, but it is far from certain. Likely ahead of Buckner is Kevin Mulvey, who was not mentioned at all in the article, but was pulled after 40 pitches in a start on Wednesday for Reno. Could be so he is able to start Saturday on short rest.
“Billy Buckner should be taking the mound for Arizona today.”
It’s one thing to give arguments pro and con, but you can’t possibly have enough information to make this statement so definitively. Arizona has scouts, coaches (pro and minor league), managers (ditto), a front office, etc.
I was just going to say what you said. The author is basing all this off of theoretical projections.
OF COURSE Benson’s projections are going to be poor. But what if he’s better than he’s been in years? Seems like the Diamondbacks feel that way.
Comment by Projections are just that — April 15, 2010 @ 10:16 pm
Agreed. I’m sure Cliff Lee had poor projections heading into 2008 and I know he was battling for a rotation spot. But obviously the Indians saw something in him that the projections didn’t. I’m sure the Diamondbacks know what the projections say. They must see Benson as a different player than he was last year. I recall reading an article about this type of thing on Fangraphs about Albert Pujols in 2001. His projections would have suggested he start the year in AA, but the coaches saw he was a different player than he was at the end of 2000.