It should be noted that as part of Vernon Wells’ contract, he also was given the 3rd installment of his signing bonus ($8.5 mil) on March 1. Shouldn’t that affect the salary we attribute to him this year?
Sure, I didn’t want to focus too much on a ranking or the salaries, just the starts to the season. We can alll agree these are bad contracts… But, yeah, the bonus makes it even “more special,” although I guess one could argue that, being deferred, it saves the Jays a bit of money on the contract as a whole.
Soriano cant get around on the Fastball anymore, and pitchers know it. They now throw him almost nothing but Sliders, Curves and Cutters not fearing the possibility of falling behind and being forced to throw a Fastball. Lyons inexplicably threw him 3 straight 90-91 MPH Fastballs the other day and Soriano was eventually able to turn on one for a double that would have hit the fielder if not for positioning.
So three straight fastballs and Soriano was able to drive the last one approximately 250-300 feet? Otherwise its bloopers and popups if he even makes contact? Seems its time to stick a fork in him. And to think, he has 5/90 left…
Well, if “albatross” is intended in Coleridge’s sense of something that hangs around until the rest of the crew is dead, Rios doesn’t really qualify — the Jays did manage to get rid of him. Of course, if his arrival marks the beginning of the end to Kenny Williams’ employment in the way it did Ricciardi, perhaps it would be better to nominate him to the Monkey’s Paw team.
He’s only had two IBBs so far, and considering how hot he’s been and how cold Overbay has, I can’t imagine that number will increase dramatically. One way or another he’ll get a better hitter behind him, whether it’s due to Overbay playing better or if it’s someone like Gonzalez or Snider moving to the fifth spot.
You’ll have to ask Dan S. for specific information, but any projection can be updated with more recent data, weighted, regressed, and otherwise adjusted properly. THT used to have “in-season” Marcels that did this, and the spreadsheet is out there, if you’re willing to update it for 2010.
If I had to guess, the regression to the mean was negative pre-season for most of these guys. Given their torrid starts I’d think that has flipped, and their regression is mostly negative. Think about it like this, if the mean is 0 and last years performance was about -1, then he regresses to -.5, so far this season they’ve been at 1, so they regress to .5. While the sample size is small, and I’m sure weighted accordingly, that’s still a pretty big swing. I’d also be willing to wager that a sharp guy like Dan has a group of “hot starter-low baseline” comps stored away somewhere he’s using.
I think it’s the contract that is a dead bird, not the player. At the league minimum, Vernon Wells would still find takers, even before this year’s still-dubious rejuvenation. But with the dollars attached, it’s a dead weight hanging around the neck of the team — they can’t take it off, they can’t give it away, and they can’t bring it back to life. And meanwhile it serves as both a reminder of the stupidity of the captain and an impediment to righting the ship.
Anyone can get lucky off three straight fastballs, so thats a foolish game plan to anyone. But being unable to get around on the fastball or hit offspead stuff means throw him trash all day and if you fall behind, there is no fear of having to come inside with the fastball. Where before, throwing him trash and eventually being forced to go heater meant he put one in the stands.