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  1. ZIPS updated & ROS seem to disagree with you.
    unless .315/ .370/ .500 ( .385 wOBA) is now considered “ugly”

    Comment by ryan — April 27, 2010 @ 10:43 am

  2. Just another slugger with a significant statistical decline starting in 2006. Age-related decreases in home run rate usually come not because the aging body has caused the bat to lose some of its angular velocity (roughly measured by ISO or HR/FB), but because the aging reflexes do not permit the bat to contact the ball squarely as frequently (measured by LD% or K rate). When I see an ISO tail-off like Vlad’s, I immediately think injuries or pharmaceuticals. When I see that the tail-off started in 2006, I must admit I think a lot less about injuries.

    Comment by onemancat — April 27, 2010 @ 10:44 am

  3. hmmm, do you think you might be reading too much into the small sample size? also, vlad might be trying to be more selective, at the cost of some of his power stroke–he might decide to go back to driving the ball at the expense of a few more Ks at some point.

    Comment by Dudley — April 27, 2010 @ 11:22 am

  4. graph?

    Comment by scatterbrian — April 27, 2010 @ 12:47 pm

  5. Vlad’s gotta be the only guy who could be considered to become more selective with an O-Swing% of 50.0. However, as the article states, 50.0% is even high for him. Honestly, I don’t know why anyone throws him anything in the strike zone – but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t historically done damage to a ton of pitches outside the zone.

    Comment by Nick — April 27, 2010 @ 1:02 pm

  6. Based on projections (CHONE, ZiPS, etc.) coming into the season, we would have expected Guerrero to have hit about 4 doubles and 3 home runs in 70 at bats. He has 4 doubles and 2 home runs. I’m not sure I’d worry about a lack of power on that basis.

    When we’re in the region where adding a count of one to something can change the conclusions, that’s a small sample size.

    Comment by Mike Fast — April 27, 2010 @ 1:09 pm

  7. nick–i misread the stuff about o-swing%–thanks for correcting me on that.

    Comment by Dudley — April 27, 2010 @ 2:22 pm

  8. I’m inclined to think it’s a combination of his brittle knees, general aging, and pitchers figuring him out.

    Comment by pchk — April 27, 2010 @ 2:43 pm

  9. Talk about a small sample size. The trend is clearly downward, but in 2009 he fell off a cliff, likely due to injury. I would be surprised if he didn’t bounce back and approach 2008 levels.

    Comment by UNCBMC — April 27, 2010 @ 2:58 pm

  10. “Based on projections (CHONE, ZiPS, etc.) coming into the season, we would have expected Guerrero to have hit about 4 doubles and 3 home runs in 70 at bats. He has 4 doubles and 2 home runs”

    Yep, ridiculous post altogether. Waste of effort. I think Jack went digging for something that just wasn’t there.

    Comment by Billy — April 27, 2010 @ 3:16 pm

  11. What about when you factor in the park he now calls home? This year he is hitting .514 in Texas but only .194 on the road. Last year he managed .404 at Ranger Park for the season. This may be the reason the Ranger signed him. He also hit 11 HR in 207 AB after the All Star break.

    Comment by Ted Hoppe — April 27, 2010 @ 8:20 pm

  12. Wait until the weather heats up, especially in Texas. He might just hit 30 this year. And since he shouldn’t have to play too much in the field, his legs will take less of a pounding. DH is his true position. And remember, Vlad’s one year below .300 was last year! Remarkable for a fellow who swings as hard as he does. His strikeouts are also insane, never over 100, not even close most years.

    Comment by Juan — April 28, 2010 @ 12:42 am

  13. This is probably circumstantial, but I remember an SI article where they said that Vlad by his skill and power had the option to hit either for average or for power. Maybe with age and less power he has decided to hit for average instead.

    He’s having a fine season. Not playing the field has saved his legs and he looks comfortable in Texas.

    Comment by nolan — April 28, 2010 @ 12:49 am

  14. The O-Swing% might tell some of the story in the power drop. Vlad’s famed eye-hand coordination means he is able to make solid contact anywhere in the area code of the ballpark, but a lot of those balls he reaches for (by a rather unscientific eye test) are hit for singles as opposed to homers. Even the famed ones off his shoetops are generally down the middle. Remember too that Vlad’s knees are so bad that he hits almost stiff-legged, which saps power.

    Comment by Alireza — April 28, 2010 @ 5:04 am

  15. No power! lol

    Comment by Billy — May 7, 2010 @ 9:32 am

  16. News: Guerrero smacked a pair of homers, including the game-winner in the eighth inning of Thursday’s wild victory over Kansas City. Guerrero finished with four RBI.
    Spin: Guerrero’s fifth home run of the season broke a 12-12 tie and helped Texas avoid an embarrassing loss after it nearly blew an eight-run lead. Guerrero has been a force in the last three games, swatting three homers with 10 RBI.

    Right..no..power

    Comment by Juan — May 7, 2010 @ 9:44 am

  17. And even with those recent homers, he’s hitting one every 23 plate appearances which is still below his career rate of one per 19. And while his HR/FB rate is back up to where it was in 2009, it’s still lower than any other year of his career. Anybody can have a slow start, it is a long season, and Texas is a good home park for him, but age exempts no one. If anything that graph looks even worse now.

    Comment by joser — May 7, 2010 @ 3:20 pm

  18. LOL joser LOL

    Comment by Billy — May 10, 2010 @ 9:42 am

  19. Well…he’s just about back to his 2008 levels and he’s hitting a HR about 1/19 PA.

    Comment by UNCBMC — May 21, 2010 @ 10:33 am

  20. “joser says:
    May 7, 2010 at 3:20 pm
    And even with those recent homers, he’s hitting one every 23 plate appearances which is still below his career rate of one per 19. And while his HR/FB rate is back up to where it was in 2009, it’s still lower than any other year of his career. Anybody can have a slow start, it is a long season, and Texas is a good home park for him, but age exempts no one. If anything that graph looks even worse now.”

    Your “analysis” is looking very intelligent by the day Joser. Guerrero is only on pace to hit 37 HR drive in 139 and collect over 200 hits. Some lack of power!

    Comment by Juan — May 23, 2010 @ 12:18 am

  21. Note that 9 of his 10 HRs have come in Arlington, he’s played 27 games at home vs 17 on the road, and his home/road wOBA split is .460 vs .284. As he plays more away games, his overall rates will probably fall off. That said, his BABIP is 100 points higher at home, so he seems to have had some bad luck on the road in a small sample. I guess we’ll see.

    Comment by MBD — May 24, 2010 @ 11:32 am

  22. @ MBD, LOL!

    In your face!!!!!!!!

    bwaaahahahaha bwahahahaha bwahahahhaa

    Comment by Billy — May 25, 2010 @ 9:39 pm

  23. Well, sorry to disappoint but Guerrero just went deep twice tonight in Kansas, not Texas, and also doubled, and had Five (5) RBI’s, too. Not bad for a “has been” power hitter. Joser, your analysis looks better by the day, no?

    Bottom line: Guerrero has always raked and with power when healthy. Now that he’s being used wisely, as a DH, his legs don’t take the pounding they did, and he’s able to drive the ball better, as a result. If healthy, he might just push into 40! home run territory this year. I just hope he stays healthy for the next four or five years as DH. To one of the greatest right handed hitters of all time, Vlad The Impaler Guerrero.

    Comment by Juan — May 25, 2010 @ 10:37 pm

  24. “When we’re in the region where adding a count of one to something can change the conclusions, that’s a small sample size.”

    Very well said. Thought this article was pretty ridiculous when it went out, but the writer probably had to fill a quota or something. I’m a big A’s fan, but I’ve always loved watching Vlad and am glad to see him healthy.

    Comment by J — May 25, 2010 @ 11:05 pm

  25. anyone who watched Vlad this year has seen him hit the **** out of the ball. that is where the stat nerds fail. they can’t measure the concussion of the baseball.

    Comment by Billy — May 25, 2010 @ 11:33 pm

  26. one of these threads that someone wishes it would just go away forever.

    Comment by Billy — July 1, 2010 @ 12:46 am

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