FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. As a Matt LaPorta owner for two year running, I’m still waiting for a vival over here.

    Comment by BobLoblaw — April 30, 2010 @ 10:25 am

  2. Vivaaal LaPorta!

    Comment by Jimbo — April 30, 2010 @ 12:19 pm

  3. I often wonder why baseball fans and especially sabermatricians do not factor injury into individual player analysis more. Particullary nagging injuries that affect players that still play.

    Kearns was an obvious example the last few seasons. We are now seeing him at his best again. Another Nat, Willingham has been an obvious player as well. He played most of his career in Florida with serious back pain that now seems to be a thing of the past. Look at him now. This is probably his true healthy talent level.

    Comment by PhD Brian — April 30, 2010 @ 1:34 pm

  4. I don’t disagree, but suspect it won’t be long before Kearns suffers another such (or more serious) injury. Staying healthy has been a major problem for him going back to his days in the minors.

    Comment by Andrew — April 30, 2010 @ 1:49 pm

  5. Hardly a career revival. Kearns had a .978 OPS last year through 53 PA. Guess what, he regressed back to his mean (sucking). He finished the season by batting under .200. Don’t be surprised if he is hovering around the mendoza line by the end of the season.

    Comment by pm — April 30, 2010 @ 3:50 pm

  6. There’s several glaring flaws in this article.

    Kearns’ BABIP: .457 (!!!)
    Kearns’ plate appearances: 51

    Expect a lot of regression because his BABIP is inordinately high. Also, for god’s sake, please at least preface the article with a small sample size warning. The guy has 51 plate appearances.

    As PM rightly points out, Kearns had a .954 OPS on May 4th last year, and that was after 76 PA.

    This is nothing more than a hot streak, which just so happens to occur at the beginning of the season, so his numbers look better. I’m confident he cannot sustain this level of play, and I have 8 seasons of data to back this up.

    Comment by Will — April 30, 2010 @ 10:37 pm

  7. I am not a Cleveland fan, but I cross my fingers he stays healthy for once cause I like the guy as a person and i am biased in favor of outstanding corner outfield defense.

    Comment by PhD Brian — May 1, 2010 @ 2:35 am

  8. I wouldn’t think people need to be told that any analysis based on the current season, at this point….holds a small sample size.

    If Kearns can stay healthy, he’ll probably be average or above. But as we’ve seen, if something nags him….his hot start will turn into another poor season. The point stands, this was a small risk for Cleveland that is working out so far…and may continue to do so.

    Comment by BS — May 1, 2010 @ 4:58 pm

  9. The ZiPS projections take BABIP into account, so that point isn’t ignored in the article. And as other people in this thread have pointed out, you need to consider injury history along with those 8 seasons of data (although only 3 of the 8 really agree with what you’re suggesting). If you do that, it seems reasonable to think that Kearns could be an average or above average player for the rest of the season.

    Comment by Murgatroid — May 2, 2010 @ 4:59 am

  10. Austin Kearns or Connor Jackson, rest of the season?

    Comment by Shamir — May 3, 2010 @ 12:35 pm

  11. -In eight seasons, Kearns has managed to miss less than 50 games due to injury twice.

    -In eight seasons, Kearns has been above average (using .335 wOBA as a baseline) three times.

    -In eight seasons, Kearns has managed to play a full above average season once.

    I wish Kearns the best of luck, but it’s hardly reasonable to think he could be remain healthy AND be an above average player.

    Comment by Will — May 3, 2010 @ 1:01 pm

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