FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. I think we are beyond small sample size here. Scott’s numbers since June of 2009 of last year have been horrible. Scott’s wOBA by month from Jun-Sept of 09: .337, .302, .322, .332. Now he’s starting off 2010 at a blistering .270 wOBA?

    As an O’s fan, here’s one: I’m done waiting.

    Comment by Casadilla — May 5, 2010 @ 5:18 pm

  2. This is an example of needing to watch the player as well as look at the stats. From observing Scott I can tell you a major reason his BABIP is lower is due to a lack of solid contact. You are unlucky when your screeching liner gets nabbed by the third baseman, luck is less of a factor when you are grounding weakly to the second baseman.

    Comment by Jeff V. — May 5, 2010 @ 6:05 pm

  3. Dude’s LD rate is right around career level his BABIP should be like .280 – .290. You should be able to count on regression to the mean.

    His REAL problem is the same as Jason Kubel’s — they were both drafted onto my fantasy team. Sorry guys.

    Comment by Steve — May 5, 2010 @ 7:30 pm

  4. 2 months of above league average, 1 month of league average, and 1 month below, and now one bad luck infested way below average month = horrible?

    If anything, it should show that players can have wild variations in their results from month to month. An overall result like a low wOBA should be a starting point to figure out what’s wrong, not the ending point of the analysis.

    Comment by The Typical Idiot Fan — May 5, 2010 @ 9:17 pm

  5. The difference between a screeching liner and a weak groundball might be a hundreth of a second off in timing or centimeter difference in where the bat hits the ball. There’s luck to be had in the contact as well as what follows it.

    Comment by Reuben — May 5, 2010 @ 11:36 pm

  6. Haha. Best diagnosis I’ve read yet.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — May 6, 2010 @ 11:03 am

  7. Not sure what your consider league average wOBA for a DH, but in 2009 for min 300PA, DHs were averaging a wOBA of .340–not ~.320.

    Plus, his ’09 season stats are significantly buoyed by a May where he hit to a wOBA of .605, but has a BABIP of .393.

    Jeff V below makes a more important point, one need’s to watch the player. Luke is a very streaky hitter and is prone to 2 week floods followed by month-long droughts. Scott has never had great contact skills, and he presses often.

    Consistency is being undervalued here as well. A player that produces spontaneously in only two months of the season is hard for a manager to put in the lineup every night.

    Comment by Casadilla — May 6, 2010 @ 2:10 pm

  8. His K rate’s up, his walk rate’s down, his IFFB rate’s up and his LD rate’s slightly down.

    His contact rates may be down but the quality of that contact probably isn’t equal to past seasons, plus the K and BB rates indicates his pitch recognition and/or timing isn’t where it needs to be.

    Comment by Steven Gomez — May 12, 2010 @ 12:08 am

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