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  1. I would say 5IP 2 runs fits the definition of “giving your team a chance to win”. Is it a great start? Of course not but they didn’t pitch you out of the game like say 3IP 6 runs. Say your bullpen has a 4.50 ERA, that would mean on average they give up 2 runs those final 4 innings which would mean your team gave up 4 total. I think that would classify as giving you a chance to win since on average teams score more than that in games.

    Comment by Matt C — May 5, 2010 @ 2:07 pm

  2. Poorly done, Joe.

    Of course 2 runs in 5 innings leaves your team a chance to win.

    Even if your bullpen ERA is a mediocre 4.5 (or lets just say RA/9 innings), then over those 4 innings you could give up 2 more runs on both a mean and probable median basis

    If your opponent scores 4 runs a game, you have given your team a non trivial chance.

    Comment by TheUnrepentantGunner — May 5, 2010 @ 2:10 pm

  3. I think if you get through 5 innings against the toughest lineup in baseball, with the lead, you gave your team a chance to win. The Yankees see a ton of pitches, score alot of runs and make you work. Were Danks a lesser pitcher, I think he might have cracked and not gotten out of there in a position to get a W.

    Comment by Wiz — May 5, 2010 @ 2:26 pm

  4. Often when I hear this phrase it refers to a pitcher giving up 3-5 runs in the early innings. If from that point on, he is able to settle down and limit the damage (as well as limiting the bullpen arms’ IP), waiting for his team to score some runs, then he is giving his team a chance to win.

    Comment by max — May 5, 2010 @ 3:53 pm

  5. I lost the game.

    Comment by Andy S. — May 5, 2010 @ 6:47 pm

  6. Isn’t this sort of thing the reasoning behind the so-called “quality start”?

    Comment by flyerdog11 — May 5, 2010 @ 6:58 pm

  7. The question, ultimately, is whether the starting pitcher pitching more innings has any additional benefit above and beyond just keeping the worse bullpen pitchers out of the game

    That is (as people have said above), it’s fairly easy to get a replacement-level reliever that will give you a ~4.5 ERA. So the only difference (on a season-wide scale) between the starter going 5 IP, 0 ER and 7IP, 1ER is having to waste one (or two) bullpen arms in the process of getting 7 innings, as both will, on average, leave you with 1 run scored per 7 innings.

    So the question is what is the value of not having to have that extra bullpen pitcher? I’d say that my initial thought is that it’s a fairly negligible effect that will exponentially grow with the number of starters; if you have 4 starters that regularly go deep into games, having one starter give you 5 very good innings would be fine, whereas a team with 5 starters that all go 5 innings per start will destroy your bullpen fairly rapidly

    Comment by Gdiguy — May 5, 2010 @ 7:45 pm

  8. I think “chance to win” falls into the the generally accepted “quality start” category of 6 IP 3 ER. Hard to argue with that performance from a starter as being the main culprit in a loss. If the opposing pitcher is lights out or your lineup is in a funk, you put credit/blame there.

    Comment by Steve S. — May 5, 2010 @ 8:31 pm

  9. I was thinking we were creating a new start. Theres the “quality start” and now the “chance to win the game” start. Soon there will be the “neither here nor there” start and the “let the fans beat traffic” start. The possibilities are endless.

    Comment by MikeS — May 5, 2010 @ 9:18 pm

  10. the Wiz, is that you?

    Comment by Shoeless — May 6, 2010 @ 1:20 pm

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