FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. It appears that Cruz is in the same boat as Orlando Cabrerra and Orlando Hudson. The fact that they carry a draft-pick penalty has severely dried up their markets. I haven’t heard any rumors of interest for Cruz, even though I agree he was, to my eye, the third-best reliever in the free agent class. With Cruz, there might be an opportunity for a team to sign them to a short-term deal with an agreement to reject arbitration. There is risk on each side with such a pact, since Cruz may not prove to be a Type A again (although relievers seem to have the easiest go of it and even a Type B free agent will help recoup the lost pick) and it is not clear that the free agent market will be stronger next year. Still, it may be that the agents for those three players are going to have to be creative.

    Comment by Tod — January 6, 2009 @ 8:48 am

  2. Thanks for your work, Eric. Question for you: What do you mean by “a .623 pitcher. In a .451 league?” I read this site most days, but must have missed the explanation of this reference…

    Comment by Alec — January 6, 2009 @ 1:49 pm

  3. Alec, TangoTiger has a formula to determine how much value a reliever has, and it is as follows:

    A: (RA + league RA) ^ 0.28
    B: (Leag RA/RA) ^ A
    Win%: B/(B+1)

    That gives us the Win Percentage of the pitcher. So, we’re saying he is worth a .623 win% in a league where replacement level is .451 for relievers.

    We then subtract .451 from .623, multply by total innings, and divide by nine to get WAR. Then factor in leverage.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — January 6, 2009 @ 1:52 pm

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