A solid addition at under $3M. The trouble with paying much more than that for a guy like Redding is that it tends to inhibit roster moves. If you really were limited to 25 guys, and locked into them once signed, it might make sense to use a strict replacement level valuation. But, if not committing too much for that last spot means you can have three or four guys in the mix for it, that actually increases your odds.
You might find three guys who all project to worse than Redding, but any one of whom has a 25-30% chance to be better. If Jon Niese ends up really looking good in ST, for example, he’s not blocked by Redding at $2.5M, but maybe would be by a guy making $7-8M.
The Mets are better off spending the real money though on a #2 type SP. Even the 80% percentile projection for a guy like Niese isn’t likely to match the median you’d expect from Lowe or Sheets. Those guys are worth every penny as measured over replacement level.
What makes the Redding signing work here is that he’s at a low enough price that they don’t need to commit to him. They can go to ST with Niese, Redding, and maybe a Freddy Garcia type, all competing for that last spot. And, if the other guys don’t work out, having a Redding there instead of a Brandon Knight type might well still be enough for this team to make the playoffs, as long as all of the other pieces are in place.
If the Mets had more minor league depth, they might not need to commit to Redding for even 1 year, $2.25M. But right now, Niese seems to be the only guy on the farm with much chance to even match what you’d expect from Redding. Given how common pitching injuries are, they really needed to do something to improve their depth there.
Comment by acerimusdux — January 10, 2009 @ 2:37 am