FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Excellent work, Matt!

    I have Billy Butler in a Fantasy points league where GIDP counts heavily against me.

    His 15 GIDP’s vs. Prince Fielder’s 2 GIDP’s are the only difference in scoring between the two. And the difference between 12th and 25th in 1B scoring this year.

    Comment by DSMok1 — June 4, 2010 @ 4:29 pm

  2. Regarding point B–Bill James one wrote that Darren Daulton hardly ever grounded into double plays because he was willing to take a walk with a man on base. So he’d take a lot of outside pitches that other hitters would try to pull and hit weakly to second.
    There’s probably something to it, because he had a 14.5% career walk rate and only grounded into 35 DP his entire career despite being one of the slowest players in the game.
    If only the Phillies could teach Wilson Valdez to take that outside pitch…

    Comment by atomicruckus — June 4, 2010 @ 4:30 pm

  3. I’d be very interested to see the numbers if Strike Outs were dropped off. I am sure Dunn would be a little further from the top.

    Comment by Mike — June 4, 2010 @ 4:35 pm

  4. For a lot of these guys, it’s not just that they strike out a lot and walk a lot; they also hit a lot of fly balls (Crawford being a notable exception). You can’t have a GIDP without the G.

    Comment by jfpbookworm — June 4, 2010 @ 5:18 pm

  5. I adjusted quickly using strikeout rates (not actual data) and removed SO’s from DP opps. So Billy Butler had 15 SOs in (56*(1-.105))=50.12 opps. League average moves from 11% to 13.1% in this construction.

    15 Worst:
    Billy Butler -3.30
    Pablo Sandoval# -2.65
    Ivan Rodriguez -2.51
    Wilson Valdez -2.22
    Sean Rodriguez -2.21
    Joe Mauer* -2.18
    Carlos Lee -2.08
    Justin Upton -1.98
    Jake Fox -1.89
    Michael Cuddyer -1.87
    Aaron Rowand -1.80
    Tony Abreu# -1.63
    Mike Napoli -1.57
    Troy Tulowitzki -1.55
    Mark DeRosa -1.52

    15 Best:
    Marlon Byrd 1.20
    Jeremy Hermida* 1.24
    Roger Bernadina* 1.24
    Gordon Beckham 1.27
    Adam Rosales 1.29
    Rickie Weeks 1.36
    Cody Ross 1.53
    Carlos Pena* 1.53
    Hideki Matsui* 1.54
    Josh Willingham 1.59
    Curtis Granderson* 1.60
    Adam Dunn* 1.68
    Justin Morneau* 1.76
    Carl Crawford* 2.06
    Josh Hamilton* 2.34

    Comment by DSMok1 — June 4, 2010 @ 5:36 pm

  6. Am I wrong in saying that there is a fairly simple explanation for why lefties get doubled up less? Lefties get out of the box faster, and are closer, so it would be harder to double them up.

    Comment by Christian — June 4, 2010 @ 7:47 pm

  7. It could also be that they tend to hit grounders toward the 1b/2b hole, a longer play. The same pull to the right side might be cut-off by the 3b or the ss playing pull.

    It’s likely not one or the other but a combo of both. Be interesting to see the % of lefty batters GIDP’s that are 4-6-3 or the harder to turn 3-6-3, and what % of RHB’s GIDP are 5-4-3 and the standard issue 6-4-3.

    Based on my experience 4-6-3 and 3-6-3 are tougher turns than are 6-4-3 and 5-4-3, but that’s probably obvious.

    Comment by Circlechange11 — June 5, 2010 @ 1:47 am

  8. Most ground out double plays come with a man on first. With a man on first the first baseman tends to hold the runner on and this makes a bigger hole for the left handed batter to hit through. Also, yes the left handed batter has that extra step’s advantage getting to first and double plays tend to be closer plays at first. Finally, I think managers on balance are more likely to hit and run with a lefthanded batter facing a right handed pitcher than righty vs righty although I don’t have any statistics to back up that opinion.

    Comment by buff — June 5, 2010 @ 8:06 pm

  9. Crawford has generally not been a leadoff hitter. He hasn’t hit leadoff in the last 3 years (mostly batting #2), the last time he led off in a majority of his games was 2005.

    I surprised to see Matsui on the list, he’s as slow as they come. He must be able to avoid ever hitting a groundball with runners on first.

    Darren Daulton was not slow. He ran well for a catcher, even late in his career after millions of injuries. Dude hit 8 triples when he was 35! When he was young he was legitimately fast, period. He stole 28 bases in the minors in 1983.

    Comment by Rally — June 6, 2010 @ 12:19 am

  10. Matsui is one smart situational hitter and doesn’t HiDP alot even though he’s slow; he hits a lot of soft ground out, but when there’s a runner on first, he usually pops up or fly out.

    Comment by nartin — June 7, 2010 @ 1:46 am

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