Vlad should be/will be a 1st ballot HoFer, but his stats are only similar to Foxx’s in the way that Early Wynn’s are similar to Tom Seaver’s. Vlad’s speed doesn’t quite offset Foxx’s power advantage (2.14 Relative-ISO vs. 1.53 Relative-ISO) and much higher walk rate (102 per 162 games vs. 59 per 162 games).
First Milton Bradley two years ago, and now Vlad this year. The Rangers seem to know a thing or two about filling in the DH spot.
Comment by suicide squeeze — July 1, 2010 @ 11:54 am
I looked up the numbers for Vlad and his power numbers were very very very consistent in regards to HRs and Slugging over his career. Roids, does he get a pass or does he get the unfortunate inclusion into the roid era?
Not at all to denigrate Vlad’s considerable HOF chances; just don’t put too much stock into the arguments like “only players with ISO of (x) and K-rate of less than (y)”. As Bill James elegantly pointed out in “Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?” you can move those goal posts wherever you like to get your candidate of choice in with some pretty select company (as you yourself did in your own example, choosing a 16% K-rate to purposefully include Ruth).
It’s kind of a neat parlor trick, but should be pretty heavily discounted as a HOF argument.
Comment by suicide squeeze — July 1, 2010 @ 12:45 pm
If you ask me, he is a Hall of Famer, but first ballot status is still up for debate. I feel that First ballot induction should be reserved for the best of the best, and small things can make a big difference. For example post season success: in 192 PAs in postseason Vlad has a wOBA of only .328. He has slugged a measly .376 in the postseason. That has to count some against him.
I think that the fact that he lied about his age will reflect poorly on him when the he is being considered for HoF induction. Not so much because he was older than he said, but because it may cause some writers to question whether or not he used steroids. There’s never been any proof Vlad’s juiced, but he’s already proven he would lie about his age to gain a competitive advantage, so could he also be juicing?
I think Latin players lying about there age and players taking PEDa are two different situations, although one could place them under the same umbrella of ‘cheating’.
Personally, I think Vlad is just one of those mega-talented players that is so talented he can be successful while doing some things wrong (like swinging at everything). Every time I hear Vlad’s name, I think of the throw home from the RF corner at Montreal. The guy is just a freak. He’s the guy you don’t want to guard in pick-up basketball or stand next to in the locker room. Natural born athlete.
As a side point, does anyone know what amount he was signed for? He seems to be one of those guys that would have signed for a large soda, a sandwich, and a pair of shoes … Wheras an American counterpart would have received a 1st round bonus.
He just seems like ‘that guy’ that could jump over a car, throw a ball over the school, or any other dare/bet one could think of.
Comment by CircleChange11 — July 1, 2010 @ 7:53 pm
Does Vlad go in the HOF as an Expo or Angel? I say as an Expo.
He has been one of the most feared and entertaining hitters in baseball the last 15 years, and the stats back it up. His ridiculous hand-eye coordination and unique skill set of being able to hit ANY pitch, in ANY count, WITH AUTHORITY is what puts him into the Hall of Fame on the 1st ballot…… Long live the Impaler!