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  1. Verlander’s K-spike seemed a bit too much last year and owners expecting it to stay as high as it was really should kick themselves.

    On a side note, I think you mean to say “In 2008″ in your first sentence…

    Comment by Jeffrey — July 2, 2010 @ 10:31 am

  2. The fact that owners this season valued Verlander near the level of King Felix actually cracks me up. If you do a standard deviation of their respective career rates, you’ll see King Felix is the king of consistency.

    It’s criminal that Verlander’s going to get paid slightly more, in my opinion

    Comment by Jeffrey — July 2, 2010 @ 10:34 am

  3. Why?

    Its not like 25ish year old pitchers having their K rates spike (and be real) is unprecedented.

    Verlander Lester
    (24) 8.2 (23) 7.1
    (25) 7.3 (24) 6.5
    (26) 10.1 (25) 10.0
    (27) 8.1 (26) 9.3

    Comment by Rich — July 2, 2010 @ 12:11 pm

  4. I think JV obviously has the same level of “stuff” he did last year, but the difference is a combination of hitters perhaps scouting him a bit more after last years success and some pitch selection issues I have noticed with him.

    The selection issue deals with location AND pitch type IMO… He doesn’t throw his FB off the plate inside as often as I think he should, and he doesn’t throw his curve or change starting on the low inside and dropping off the table as much as he should. JMO
    My reason for this thinking is that hitters appear to have an easier time fouling off the high FB and the outside corner FB this year than they did previosly (all I have to go by is my impression, though, no stats). If he would knock hitters off the plate more often with inside FB’s, throw that curve in the dirt at their feet (for lefties), and start his change low and inside (on lefties) and then drop out of the K zone in the dirt over the plate a few times per game per hitter (and vise versa for righties), they would have a much tougher time anticipating pitches based on initial apparent lacation, leading to more swings and misses. Right now, I think hitters can get a good idea based on count and pitch location what the pitch is as soon as they see where it appears to be going.

    I hope what I wrote makes as much sense to you guys as what I’m thinking does in my head lol

    Comment by food4thought — July 2, 2010 @ 12:27 pm

  5. Verlander had terrible K/9 rates coming out of April last year if I remember correctly. Not that I expect him to get back to 10+ K/9, but if you give him until the end of the year then he should be back in the 8.8-9.2 K/9 range.

    Plus I think there’s a little bit of management wanting Verlander to pitch to contact a bit more so he could go longer in games without throwing as many pitches as he did last year.

    Comment by Josh — July 2, 2010 @ 2:29 pm

  6. 10K’s tonight in your face! You got nothing to say now tiger hater!

    Comment by Lloyd mclendon — July 3, 2010 @ 11:09 pm

  7. His slider looked was as good, by far, as he’s ever thrown it. On a particular night, when his stuff isn’t 100% nasty, hitters are able to foul off his fastball and still re-adjust to hit his curve. An effective slider to fill that large velocity gap between the FB and CB/CU would make him a lot more consistent from start to start, by giving him more of a strikeout pitch on his off-nights.

    Comment by the fume — July 4, 2010 @ 11:13 am

  8. His change sits at almost the same velocity that his slider does, so the argument that the slider gives him something to fill in that gap doesn’t make any sense.

    Comment by Eric Cioe — July 4, 2010 @ 2:55 pm

  9. 2 issues with your comparisons here:

    2008 was an off year (3.9BB, 7.3K per 9), but it is being lumped in with 2006 and 2007. His K/9 in his breakout 2006 season was 6.0, so I think it’s hard to say he is “settling in” to a middle of road, when he’s really been all over it.

    As someone mentioned, Verlander had horrible ’09 and ’10 Aprils, so that is weighing down his 2010 year-to-date stats.

    Comment by James — July 5, 2010 @ 11:46 am

  10. I’m hoping this is parody.

    (Especially considering that outing was against the toothless Mariners)

    Comment by joser — July 5, 2010 @ 3:14 pm

  11. Its off topic, but I was just thinking about how fast Verlander would throw as a reliever. I wonder if it would be as speedy as a Zumaya fastball. I shudder to think!

    Comment by Relieving — July 5, 2010 @ 4:04 pm

  12. @Relieving: Verlander used to be able to get up to 101-102 pretty consistently, so it’s probable.

    Anyway Verlander’s K/9 is back up to the 8.6 range. Should continue rising with his next start against the Indians..

    Comment by Josh — July 16, 2010 @ 12:23 pm

  13. Final tally, 8.89 K/9, 2.84 BB/9, I guess people really shouldn’t write these reviews about JV in the middle of a season which includes his April stats.

    I really don’t see much of a difference in his K and BB rates that can’t be explained by random variance, especially when you compare all his secondary data from Pitch fx.

    Comment by Colin — December 22, 2010 @ 4:03 pm

  14. In addition, 5th best FIP, tied for 3rd best WAR.

    He’s fine, a little more good fortune (an era that actually is lower than his FIP for once) and he’s bagging a Cy Young.

    Comment by Colin — December 22, 2010 @ 4:12 pm

  15. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2010&month=0&season1=2009

    09-10 seasons, look it up, see where Felix is compared to JV then ask why people compare them.

    The only reason Felix is more valuable is because he’s younger and arguably because he’s a ground ball pitcher.

    If you don’t want to I’ll paraphrase the results. JV has the 2nd highest WAR over a two year span, 5th highest FIP, both better than Felix.

    Comment by Colin — December 22, 2010 @ 4:17 pm

  16. Verlander pitches with pressure for about 120 games of every season while King Felix and the Mariners are 15 games out of first place before the all-star break.

    Verlander struck out more guys per 9 innings than Hernandez, gave up less homeruns, had a slightly worse walk ratio… but obviously had more wins and a much worse ERA. This all comes down to BABIP… Verlander’s was .289 while Hernandez had a pretty freaking low .265.

    Also Verlander threw 16 innings less than the season before, while King Felix in the second straight season threw far too many innings for a young guy playing for a last place team. One guy is 6’5 and built to pitch, the other guy looks a bit out of shape at times, and doesn’t look as tall as stated(he’s not 6’3.) Something tells me Verlander is the guy who holds up for another 10-12 years while putting up impressive numbers while King Felix flames out. He’s 24 with 1154 innings under his belt. Remember Doc Gooden?

    Comment by Kyle — December 23, 2010 @ 7:53 am

  17. Well if Verlander is making 120 pressure appearances every year, my money is on Felix to last longer

    Comment by JR — December 23, 2010 @ 8:08 am

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