FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. i’m sorry, does that say felipe lopez? it’s july 5th, not april 1st.

    Comment by Tom B — July 5, 2010 @ 7:51 pm

  2. “Lopez almost certainly would have accepted, given the market for 2B – Orlando Hudson only got $5 million himself, and Lopez had to settle for $1 million from St. Louis.”

    I’ve seen this sort of commentary on various different players who turned down arbitration, and I have to wonder–how much evidence do we have for this? What I mean is, yes, obviously had Lopez been offered arbitration, he would have done better to accept it, but we only know that in hindsight. At the time, he was widely expected to get a much better deal, and Doug Melvin was criticized for not offering him arby. Do we know enough to say Lopez would have foreseen the bad market for 2Bs, and accepted arbitration? Has any research been done into this in general?

    Comment by Alex Poterack — July 5, 2010 @ 7:51 pm

  3. “An arbitration offer can result in a one year salary no lower than 80% of the prior year’s salary”

    That is only true for players under team control (i.e. Super Twos and players with at least 3 but less than 6 years of MLB service), not free agents. This winter, whichever team has Lilly can offer him arbitration and if he accepts, they are free to submit whatever figure they choose. It’s still questionable that a team would offer him arbitration, but there is no $9.6M floor on the team’s offer.

    http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/12/free-agent-arbitration-primer.html
    http://baseball.suite101.com/article.cfm/how_baseball_arbitration_works

    Comment by theperfectgame — July 8, 2010 @ 10:48 am

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