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  1. To follow up your question of “Is he getting better this year,” it leads me to another question: If his numbers have not improved dramatically, and how he has performed is yielding production reasonably related to his secondary statistics, does he NEED to get any better? If his secondary statistics suggest he can hit .305-.315, hit 15-20 HRs, score a bunch of runs at the top of a lineup… isn’t that enough to ask of a 2B?

    Just something to think about.

    Comment by Zach B. — July 9, 2010 @ 10:05 am

  2. where can i find POW (XB/H) ?

    Comment by labe — July 9, 2010 @ 10:09 am

  3. He’s really good. ZIPS rest of season says 313/358/472.

    Comment by Rally — July 9, 2010 @ 10:10 am

  4. I’d like to comment on his improving defense, as evidenced by the improvement in UZR at 2B. The most logical explanation for this is that 2010 is the first year he has been able to play 2B full time. Of his 128 games played in 2009, he appeared as a second baseman in only 63 of them, spending the meaningful balance of his playing time at 3B and 1B.

    Being able to focus his defensive training time on one position rather than 3 is a very plausible explanation for his improved 2B defense this year, and I fully expect him to be an slightly above average defender at the position for the next few years.

    Comment by Ben — July 9, 2010 @ 10:16 am

  5. He’s not even at his peak yet. Its pretty safe to say he’s at least a .300+ hitter with an .800+ OPS who gives you decent defense at a couple infield positions. That’s an all-star in most years.

    I watch alot of Braves games and his hand/eye coordination is incredible…almost Pedroia esque. He’s legit.

    Comment by NEPP — July 9, 2010 @ 10:25 am

  6. now if only he had more speed…

    Comment by micah — July 9, 2010 @ 10:44 am

  7. I’m not sure why we *have* to assume his BABIP will drop in the future, .344 is a pretty good BABIP and likely it will regress a little bit, but there’s no reason to assume a big drop in BABIP with that good of a LD%.

    Comment by Bill — July 9, 2010 @ 10:49 am

  8. Any idea what his xBABIP is?

    Comment by Josh S. — July 9, 2010 @ 10:59 am

  9. Prado is the second coming of Kelly Johnson. Just imagine if they had both!

    Comment by Jeffrey Gross — July 9, 2010 @ 11:08 am

  10. his xBABIP is .327 per THT’s xBABIP calc

    Comment by Jeffrey Gross — July 9, 2010 @ 11:10 am

  11. meaning he should be hitting .300 or so. Still very good.

    Comment by Jeffrey Gross — July 9, 2010 @ 11:11 am

  12. Yep, agree. Obviously, it’s not terribly likely that he’ll maintain a .363 BABIP this season, but his past two years lead one to believe if it drops, it won’t be by much. He’s also what, 26? Would love to see more walks, but he’s got time to improve.

    Comment by KG — July 9, 2010 @ 11:17 am

  13. Prado said that this offseason he did the p90x workout which helped his agility and let him keep his power. I will admit that some of the hits that Prado gets are quite lucky (bloopers) however he does a lot of hitting to the opposite field (Jeter-esque) and he has pull power too (2 HRs against Moyer)

    Even if he regresses he is still a .300 hitter with an .800 OPS which is great for a 2B.

    The only thing i wish he had was a little speed to steal 20 a year but cant have it all.

    Comment by drumzalicious — July 9, 2010 @ 11:17 am

  14. How long does it take BABIP to stabilize? And are you suggesting a regression to .344 or league average?

    Comment by The Usual SusBeck — July 9, 2010 @ 11:58 am

  15. Sure it is, but who doesn’t want to get better?

    Comment by Matt — July 9, 2010 @ 12:31 pm

  16. I completely agree; last sentence says I think he can be/already is a great player in the majors.

    Comment by Jack Moore — July 9, 2010 @ 12:42 pm

  17. Take a look at this:

    Since it’s been almost 1200 ABs, we can be moderately confident that Prado’s BABIP should stabilize above .300. Personally, I’m not sure how far above. I would think that it would regress to somewhere in the .310-.320 area, but that doesn’t mean that he can’t be an Ichiro-type hitter who just constantly has a high BABIP. There’s just not enough data yet to be confident in that claim.

    Comment by Jack Moore — July 9, 2010 @ 12:46 pm

  18. It’s a partial season, and very much a small sample size on which to draw conclusions. Even though his time at the big league level has been spent at three different positions, he has 491 games of minor league experience where he was almost exclusively a second baseman. While it’s entirely possible (in fact I think it likely) that he’s a better defensive player than he had shown prior to this season, I don’t think he’s made any significant improvements in that regard. He’s below average, just slightly, and more than makes up for it with his offensive contribution.

    In fact, any previous perception of Martin Prado as a sub-par defender is another indictment of small sample sizes and UZR-assuming that’s the basis. In his first thee years at the Major League level, he played a combined 237 innings at second base. He posted a -8.2 UZR in that tiny sample of innings. For his career, he’s at -8.7. Almost all of the negative UZR data we have comes from three tiny sample sizes at the beginning of his career.

    Comment by Bronnt — July 9, 2010 @ 1:34 pm

  19. There is some regression to be expected. But hitters have a lot more variance in their true talent babip than pitchers. The projection systems will do a better job of guessing how much than any of us can do in our heads. ZIPS says he’s a .313 hitter with a .338 babip. Sounds good to me.

    One pet peave of mine is for incomplete analysis that looks something like this: “X is hitting well, but that his due to a high babip, so he can’t keep it up” but stops short of telling you what to expect the player to do in the future. Use the projection systems for this. ZIPS is right there updated daily. If you think you can estimate it better than ZIPS, then publish your own projection system.

    Comment by Rally — July 9, 2010 @ 1:54 pm

  20. His defense is good enough if he continues to hit, though my assessment is that Prado is a slightly below average defender, having seen him play everyday now. My guess is that he is moved to third when Chipper retires for a better gloveman.

    Comment by Phantom Stranger — July 9, 2010 @ 2:11 pm

  21. Prado’s a solid everyday player. However, I don’t think he’s a consistent all-star player. As for his defense, he’s below-average, but he’s on the good end of that. He’s very steady and will make the right play on balls he can get to, it’s just that his range is terrible.

    Comment by Michael Procton — July 9, 2010 @ 4:57 pm

  22. You hate everywhere don’t you. Get over your KJ bitterness. This is his 1st full year & he’s easily at an All-Star level, there is nothing that says he can’t continue. He has improved his D & his solid to above average. His range is far from terrible.

    Funny how the SSS of UZR against him, yet when it’s positive it’s to be ignored. You cannot have it both ways.

    Comment by SSO — July 9, 2010 @ 10:42 pm

  23. A .344 BABIP is too far above average for really anyone to sustain. It’s possible that Prado is one of the 5 or so hitters with a true talent BABIP above .340, but obviously it’s unlikely.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — July 10, 2010 @ 5:49 am

  24. can we get stats on player’s vision? i think prado has 20/15…

    Comment by psmith — July 10, 2010 @ 2:49 pm

  25. Prado’s good, but he’s no Omar Infante.

    Comment by Mark — July 10, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  26. Prado is going to be great for along time.

    Comment by Stu — July 11, 2010 @ 5:43 pm

  27. Ohhhhhhhh, no. No, he is not the second coming of Johnson. Kelly has a lower BA, but walks more, so his isoOBP is much higher than Prado’s.

    Comment by Sam — July 11, 2010 @ 9:04 pm

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