FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Whats the slope and correlation between SB successes and times picked off. If it’s lower than the caught stealings, it could be that good basestealing teams avoid pickoffs in addition to stealing more bases, or the other way around.

    Comment by vivaelpujols — July 12, 2010 @ 5:36 am

  2. The equation for successful stolen base vs picked off is:

    f(x) = 0.086x+8.129
    r-squared = 0.244

    Graph:

    http://farm5.static.flickr.com/4116/4786612470_489724940e.jpg

    It is pretty close to the attempt line.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — July 12, 2010 @ 9:04 am

  3. Does the relationship hold true to individual players as well, or are pickoffs of individual players too rare to really get meaningful numbers out?

    Comment by UWHabs — July 12, 2010 @ 9:23 am

  4. I don’t have the data available right, I was just working with team data. Let me see what I can find.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — July 12, 2010 @ 9:41 am

  5. There is a clear relationship here – but it is quite weak – .374 r square etc. So, let’s not over exaggerate the conclusion. There is a lot of variance here – the more interesting question now becomes why are some teams quite good at attempting steals without getting picked off while others are not. One of the teams attempted about 150 steals with only 6 or 7 pick offs in the first graph while another was picked off 27 times – why is that it.

    Comment by Kevin Buterbaugh — July 12, 2010 @ 10:34 am

  6. excellent article, thanks for including the graphs!

    Comment by OT — July 12, 2010 @ 10:35 am

  7. Clear correlation, but I wouldn’t exactly go into a meeting w/ those r-squared values.

    Comment by Joe R — July 12, 2010 @ 10:38 am

  8. I love graphs – I will probably put in too many than not enough.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — July 12, 2010 @ 12:31 pm

  9. I am hoping to find other possible causes. The rest of the baseball running data is a little harder to piece together and evaluate, but I am getting there. Stay tuned.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — July 12, 2010 @ 12:33 pm

  10. Hit and runs should be factored some how especially deciding a single players stats. He has been picked off because the coach called a sign expecting contact when batter fails then probably a guy who should not be stealing just got caught stealing.

    Comment by oompaloopma — July 12, 2010 @ 1:15 pm

  11. Doesn’t the team that has Scott Podsednik sort of ruin this (or at least become the outliar)? Not only does he steal a lot of bases, but he’s also very very very good at getting picked off?

    Comment by Otter — July 12, 2010 @ 2:35 pm

  12. He is also 2nd in MLB in CS.

    Comment by Joe R — July 12, 2010 @ 2:39 pm

  13. Way to rub salt into my wounds that are my Royal’s loyalty.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — July 12, 2010 @ 3:40 pm

  14. I haven’t really studied statistics in a while, is an r^2 valued of .374 high enough to even say there’s really a correlation. That value seems pretty weak, almost to the point of being statistically insignificant.

    Also, just out of curiosity, if you still have the statistics at hand, who are the two teams that had less than 100 SB attempts and more than 25 times picked off. Those seem like extremely awful outliers, to the point where it might be making the relationship look worse than it really should be.

    Comment by Dylan — July 12, 2010 @ 6:42 pm

  15. I probably missed something but why are runners who W or are HBP or get on because of CI not included? Aren’t they just as likely to attempt a steal as any other runner? And do you think there is any correlation to base running philosophy (Managers who like play station-to-station, 3-Run HR, etc., verses a more aggressive style) and the percentage you are projecting? Thanks for the article.

    Comment by Mark — July 12, 2010 @ 6:57 pm

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