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  1. Home Derby champs are definitely worth the premium. Just ask Ryan Howard.

    Comment by odbsol — July 19, 2010 @ 4:18 pm

  2. I totally agree. Most underrated player in the game.

    Comment by Joe Morgan — July 19, 2010 @ 4:39 pm

  3. Fielder and Gonzalez will both cost a fortune in terms of money and players and neither will fill the role that Ortiz fills now.

    I don’t see why Ortiz wouldn’t rip up the option and sign a two year deal for $18M or something close to that. Oritz gets his two year deal, and the Sox get their man for less money.

    Comment by mattymatty2000 — July 19, 2010 @ 4:51 pm

  4. Let me rephrase: I DO see why Ortiz or the Sox might not do that but it seems the most equitable thing to do from both sides.

    Comment by mattymatty2000 — July 19, 2010 @ 4:52 pm

  5. They should trade him for Strasburg. I’m one of those guys, I make that deal.

    Comment by Steve Phillips — July 19, 2010 @ 4:53 pm

  6. Is there a buyout? If there is, for say, $1M, that makes the math a lot closer.

    I’d be surprised, barring a 2nd half collapse, if the Sox didn’t pick up his option.

    Comment by Steve — July 19, 2010 @ 4:56 pm

  7. I’m not as familiar with the red sox as I am with my home team, but could they use the DH spot as a rotating position for their injury-prone players to occupy? Or, they could get somebody like Adam Dunn for the position assuming he gets rid of his no-DH personal preference.

    Comment by another idea — July 19, 2010 @ 5:00 pm

  8. One problem with this math is identifying someone to take his place. Finding a replacement player that is worth 2 WAR and giving him a $8M contract may sound better than paying a 3 WAR player $15M, but it won’t necessarily make the team better. It’s not like the Red Sox are financially constrained.

    The problem that teams run into is not paying good players more than market value. The problem is when they pay bad players. For example, paying Ortiz $12.5M in 2011 may be more than he’s truly worth, but I can’t see it affecting else the Red Sox would do. In contrast, giving him 3-4 years where they’re paying him $5-7M at age 38 is much more likely to hurt the team.

    Comment by Chris — July 19, 2010 @ 5:12 pm

  9. There aren’t a whole lot of available position players who OPS .950+. Rotating a position player is kind of wasting the spot when you can fill it with an elite hitter.

    Comment by Rich — July 19, 2010 @ 5:26 pm

  10. No buyout at all according to Cot’s, I would have mentioned it.

    Comment by Matt Klaassen — July 19, 2010 @ 5:35 pm

  11. Well, he’s fat, he hits home runs, and he plays first base, so we all know he’s going to stink any minute now. Sox should trade him while his value is still north of zero.

    /Poe’s Law

    Comment by bflaff — July 19, 2010 @ 7:15 pm

  12. two correct facts and a correct statement

    Comment by Shoreview Twins Fan — July 19, 2010 @ 9:30 pm

  13. Ortiz currently has 1.8 WAR. Since ZiPS sees his production remaining almost identical through the remainder of the season, that extrapolates to 3.1 WAR if he records the number of plate appearances ZiPS projects for him for the remainder of the season.

    His RAR is somewhat higher than his batting runs based on positional and replacement level adjustments. I’m not sure what the root of that is, but if WAR is correct in doing so, while your projection of being worth +25 batting runs is correct, the WAR value of that production is going to be closer to 3 than 2.5.

    If we then drop that number to 2.5 WAR for next year, a $12.5 million option is just about right. If long term contracts are valuing production at $4 million/win, it is perfectly reasonable for a 1 year deal to do so at $5 million/win. The option, 2/18 or 3/24 are good estimates for talking about what Ortiz should expect from the Red Sox.

    Comment by Jake R — July 19, 2010 @ 9:47 pm

  14. I’d be very surprised if the Sox picked up his option. That said, I expect him back.

    This is a guy who has already left tens of millions on the table before, TWICE giving the Red Sox a hometown discount. Each time he could have really cashed in but didn’t even try. He’s already talked a good bit about how desperate he is to stay… they’ll figure out something decent in the middle that keeps him here and protects them without embarrassing him.

    Comment by alskor — July 20, 2010 @ 12:13 am

  15. I would be cautious about offering any DH a long term deal when Bud Selig comes out and says he prefers the NL rules, but it is up to the AL owners to decide on the DH. No DH=reduced payrolls. This run prevention, year of the pitcher mantra may have an agenda. If you can get rid of a bunch of the older sluggers who make more than younger players, you improve the pitching and reduce payroll. Just have to convince the fans to love low scoring games.

    The risk in signing any player in a contract year is was the performance enhanced. Given the designer drugs that someone making 12.5 million can afford, who knows if they were using (tests would not pick it up). Once a player gets a long term contract he may decide to give up the enhancement due to health concerns.

    Also, in 2006 Papi signed his extension. This is a year he hit 54 HR. In August he ended up in the hospital with palpitations (a symptom of anabolic steroids that could also be due to stress or caffeine), that scared him enough to say he needed to drop weight. His power numbers coincidentally fell in 2007-2009 (in 2008 he had a torn or split tendon sheath). Add it up and you wonder.

    Comment by pft — July 20, 2010 @ 3:15 am

  16. “could also be due to stress or caffeine”

    Or, could just be due to him being fat.

    Comment by Rich — July 20, 2010 @ 9:53 am

  17. ortiz is a bloat who argues every called third strike on him, he is full of himself and that stupid chin strap beard. wearing the huge wrap around glasses so no one could see his eyes with boston sportswriters interviewing him inside the clubhouse last year with his name linked to the ped’s and steroids was an admission of guilt. typical rsn in denial of an over rated one dimensional player. next thing you know they will say he is a hall of famer.

    Comment by Nikolai Volkoff — July 20, 2010 @ 10:42 am

  18. Hey, I’m still waiting for Ortiz to give us that explanation he promised last year about his PED test.

    I know he’s been busy helping OJ find the real killer, but I’m expecting something any day now.

    Comment by Steve — July 20, 2010 @ 12:20 pm

  19. Hey…seriously, does anyone else have a problem with market value evaluations for player value?

    Ortiz is obviously worth a good deal more to the Red Sox than for the Pittsburgh Pirates both because of his image in New England and because they figure to contend every year and his 2-4 wins above replacement figure to contribute to a penant race. Not to mention a win is worth more to the Red Sox because they have a larger fan base and more expensive season tickets than the Tampa Bay Rays.

    I mean, seriously, those are two factors that can’t be ignored, right? He’s worth the money to the Red Sox especially considering the DH situation for a bunch of AL teams around the league…

    Comment by Mike Savino — July 20, 2010 @ 12:57 pm

  20. Let’s be real here, he’s now the same as Russell Branyan in terms of production and age. Seriously, they are like twins minus the body shape, skin color, language spoken, and PED allegations. Statistically, however, they are twins. Branyan has a much better chance of living up to a multi-year deal even with the back problems and he’s not getting anything north of $5MM a season and no more than two-years, Look at Vlad Guerrero and his small contract.

    If people are doubting whether or not the Mariners will take the $5MM option on Branyan that includes a buyout, than it’s a slam dunk for Ortiz to lose the option and to become a free agent. That said, Boston will re-sign him, but he’ll want a 4 year deal, probably for $28MM that’ll take him through retirement. Maybe $4MM signing bonus and $24MM ($6MM/yr.) OR $3MM signing bonus and $18MM ($6MM/yr.) in a guaranteed contract without options.

    As for the DH rule, it’s not going anywhere. Losing teams are more tollerable when they lose 8 to 7 than 2 to 1. Winning teams have more revenue and being able to spend an extra $10MM on a DH separates the good teams from the also rans, it’s why the AL playoffs has NY, Bos, Minn, Ana, o TB every year. Also, let’s be clear, so cutting the DH position doesn’t benefit any team in the AL, but supposing it would eventually pass, Ortiz is going to be retired in less than 4 seasons, so it’s a mute point in this discussion.

    Comment by Kurt — September 5, 2010 @ 9:40 pm

  21. The right hand side is a little squiffy on my machine, running snow lepeord osx and opera, hmm might be might settings, i’ll let you know.

    Comment by Alfredia Ferrie — January 4, 2011 @ 6:11 pm

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