FanGraphs Baseball

Comments

RSS feed for comments on this post.

  1. Great follow up. Exactly what I wanted to see after reading yesterday’s article on Bruce. The only thing more I’d like to see is his batted ball distance minus all GB, as a different percentage of GB from 09 to 10 will add noise to the overall batted ball distance.

    Comment by The Duder — August 18, 2010 @ 3:40 pm

  2. I will run the numbers and post them later tonight.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — August 18, 2010 @ 4:00 pm

  3. Good idea.

    Comment by Matt Defalco — August 18, 2010 @ 4:15 pm

  4. It’s too early to tell for Tulowitzki, but he’s certainly a guy you might want to keep on your radar.

    Comment by Matt — August 18, 2010 @ 4:25 pm

  5. Jordan Schafer is the first guy that comes to mind. Great minor league numbers and off to a hot start in the majors, then attempts to play through a wrist injury that would eventually require surgery. He’s back to playing baseball this year but has been dreadful posting .203/.271/.258 in 304 PAs across 3 levels (Braves started him in AAA and he worked his way down).

    Comment by Ron A. — August 18, 2010 @ 4:27 pm

  6. Do we have any sense of what a standard variation looks like for this data? It would be nice to know that we’re looking at a real trend and not just shapes in the clouds.

    Looking at the charts, I see just 1 warning track out in 2009 to the left of dead center. In 2010, he’s got 4. Those 10 feet are the most valuable in baseball. Give him a slight breeze behind him on 2 of those and you add 20 points to his slugging and 25 points to his OPS.

    I think we often try to read too much in to performance as indicator of progress for the development (or lack thereof) of skills. While Bruce has not hit for as much power in 2010 as he has previously, I’m not sure that this data really suggests his ability to do so has been compromised.

    Comment by Rick — August 18, 2010 @ 4:32 pm

  7. Probably better to just compare FB only? His GB rate seems to have stayed static from 2009 to 2010 (an identical 38.5%). Though I’m not yet convinced either way if keeping LD balls makes any sense…

    Comment by Mark C — August 18, 2010 @ 4:52 pm

  8. Has batted ball distance changed MLB-wide? The league-wide numbers might well fluctuate from season to seaslm, so you should adjust for that.

    MLB occasionally changes the composition of the ball. That’s just one possible cause. Rather than compare one player’s season to that player’s subsequent season, compare his deviation from average in each of those two seasons.

    Comment by Llewdor — August 18, 2010 @ 5:03 pm

  9. Not sure why you’d include league averages for a particular player’s performance in this way. Changes in league average probably aren’t very predictive of individual player’s changes. (E.g. the league average can change because there is more emphasis on defense so hitters are selected less for their ability to hit the ball. But that wouldn’t change what you would expect of an individual player who has already been playing and who doesn’t need to work on his defense.)

    Comment by philosofool — August 18, 2010 @ 5:26 pm

  10. Doesn’t the baseball travel further in hot weather? Wouldn’t you have to determine if the average distance for all hitters went up as the weather heated up?

    Comment by spydog — August 18, 2010 @ 5:46 pm

  11. Rickie Weeks has had a few hand injuries and one somewhat significant wrist injury (no break as far as i know ) and he might be a good one to analyze.

    Comment by DHRjericho — August 18, 2010 @ 5:58 pm

  12. Do we have any sense of what a standard variation looks like for this data? It would be nice to know that we’re looking at a real trend and not just shapes in the clouds.

    This was my first thought too. Is a 3% difference (6 in 186) significant?

    With all the other factors at play, it seems like it might not be.

    Comment by joser — August 18, 2010 @ 5:59 pm

  13. Yes, atmospherics can have a significant effect. See “Home Run Park Factor: A New Approach” (and others) at the Hardball Times.

    Comment by joser — August 18, 2010 @ 6:02 pm

  14. You should look at Derrek Lee, his wrist injury in 06 was right after his best year by far and he’s never been the same since.

    Comment by Ben — August 18, 2010 @ 9:59 pm

  15. I looked at fly balls only:

    In 2009 he averaged 320 ft and averaged 35 degrees toward RF from CF.

    In 2010, he is averaging 295 ft and at 1degrees toward RF from CF.

    In 2010 he is hitting for less distance on fly balls by 25 ft and is not get around as much.

    Very little monthly data to use it.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — August 18, 2010 @ 10:38 pm

  16. I looked at fly balls and line drives

    In 2009 he averaged 311 ft and averaged 32 degrees toward RF from CF.

    In 2010, he is averaging 288 ft and at 14 degrees toward RF from CF.

    In 2010 he is hitting for less distance on fly balls by 23 ft and is not get around as much.

    Very little monthly data to use it.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — August 18, 2010 @ 10:43 pm

  17. I hope to have a better answer in the future. I have it near the top of my to do list (working on Tommy John Surgery effects right now). If you look at the comments above it can be seen when ground balls are removed, the difference is over 20 feet.

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — August 18, 2010 @ 10:49 pm

  18. This was a huge oversite especially considering the following article:

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/12/17/695875/what-factors-have-an-effec

    I will just be using the yearly data for now

    Comment by Jeff Zimmerman — August 18, 2010 @ 11:06 pm

  19. Looking at the graphs, in 2010 Bruce has learned how to pop up to the 3rd baseman.

    Comment by CircleChange11 — August 19, 2010 @ 12:11 am

Leave a comment

Line and paragraph breaks automatic, e-mail address never displayed, HTML allowed: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>


Close this window.

0.250 Powered by WordPress