It’s dissipointing to see, he has the talent, he shows flashes of it throughout the season. When he gets hot, he can carry the Sox by himself. And the stats back it up, in Sox wins Carlos has an OPS over 1.000 and in Sox losses just a smidge over .560. For whatever reason, he’s just not able to sustain consistancy or stay healthy. If he could, he would be a monster, and an MVP canidate year in and out. Unfortunatly he’s not, maybe one day he finds a way, but till then he looks to be another Carlos Pena type slugger.
“Power skills are resurgent, featuring a career-high FB%. PX and hr/f are registering at lower levels than in 2008, but are on the rise.
While BA has lagged, xBA is solid. Both BA and xBA are rising, though h% remains depressed. While Quentin’s hit rates are typically low, the current 22% hit rate represents a career-low, and is the prime contributor to a wide BA/xBA gap. The atypically low hit rate and the BA/xBA gap indicate a potential BA surge.
Quentin has become an extreme fly-ball hitter, which could be contributing to the lower hit rate.
Quentin is in the midst of a bounceback season, though his production has not yet matched his skills, as BA is under-performing xBA by a wide margin. Hit rate normalization is likely to result in a narrowing of the BA/xBA gap, lifting BA, though the extreme FB% may limit the extent of any BA surge. Surging power appears sustainable as power skills have not yet reached 2008’s peak levels. The evidence suggests that a strong finish in which the production catches up to the skills is likely, provided health—seemingly always problematic in Quentin’s case—is maintained”
Comment by Damnedifino — August 18, 2010 @ 9:56 pm
Quentin is a one year wonder and huge defensive liability. The Sox should have moved him early July for Jones and Dotel of the Pirates during his two week hot streak if possible.
Comment by Daniel Andrews — August 18, 2010 @ 11:05 pm
Why? they’ve seen the Dotel movie before and its real bad. And I doubt Jones’s WAR would be above water in the AL.
Injuries. He was pretty much hurt off and on all 2009 (not to mention the recovery from the broken wrist), and he’s been hurt off and on this season. He’s been in the lineup at less than 100% when he shouldn’t be. He’ll be closer to that 2008 level if he can ever stay healthy for a full season.
Given the Thome mistake and the curious decision to play flotsam at DH, you would think the Sox would just force Quentin to play their full time. Then again, Guillen loves to shuffle his lineups whether its necessary or not.
Power is not the issue – the ball jumps off his bat when he’s healthy and squaring it up. As noted above, it’s primarily injuries. If you are familiar with guys having wrist injuries and plantar fasciatis, those two both seem to produce a noticeable performance drop off until fully recovered (probably because your feet and hands are critical to hitting mechanics).
This post should have been called – “Will Carlos Quentin ever be healthy for an entire season”. The ’08 stats are anomolous because so far out of the three years selected for analysis (08-10), that was the only season he was healthy from start to finish. It’s just an article for the sake of writing an article. If you follow the White Sox, the reason for the dropoff is no mystery.
He might not get hit as much if the White Sox would pitch inside and/or drill some people, but that’s another article for another day.
I’ll admit that I was one of the folks that didn’t think the Sox should resign Jim Thome; he was still the most feared guy in the lineup and two years ago, Carlos had Thome, Dye and Konerko all with pretty good years.
Quentin has a strong pedigree traveling back to his start with Stanford. 2008 was NOT a fluke. Maybe it’s more than what we should expect in the future.
His ultimate issues deal with mental state and physical health. Let’s not forget that the season ending injury in ’08 was caused by him slapping his bat after a poor at-bat. His ability is obvious, and it is highly talented.
I didn’t say he had no power, I said his HR rate from 2008 was a fluke and unsustainable. If his HR/FB ratio had been in line with his career averages, he would have lost 9 HR and 20 pts of BA. I.e that season would not have been so different from this year.