It’s dissipointing to see, he has the talent, he shows flashes of it throughout the season. When he gets hot, he can carry the Sox by himself. And the stats back it up, in Sox wins Carlos has an OPS over 1.000 and in Sox losses just a smidge over .560. For whatever reason, he’s just not able to sustain consistancy or stay healthy. If he could, he would be a monster, and an MVP canidate year in and out. Unfortunatly he’s not, maybe one day he finds a way, but till then he looks to be another Carlos Pena type slugger.
“Power skills are resurgent, featuring a career-high FB%. PX and hr/f are registering at lower levels than in 2008, but are on the rise.
While BA has lagged, xBA is solid. Both BA and xBA are rising, though h% remains depressed. While Quentin’s hit rates are typically low, the current 22% hit rate represents a career-low, and is the prime contributor to a wide BA/xBA gap. The atypically low hit rate and the BA/xBA gap indicate a potential BA surge.
Quentin has become an extreme fly-ball hitter, which could be contributing to the lower hit rate.
Quentin is in the midst of a bounceback season, though his production has not yet matched his skills, as BA is under-performing xBA by a wide margin. Hit rate normalization is likely to result in a narrowing of the BA/xBA gap, lifting BA, though the extreme FB% may limit the extent of any BA surge. Surging power appears sustainable as power skills have not yet reached 2008′s peak levels. The evidence suggests that a strong finish in which the production catches up to the skills is likely, provided health—seemingly always problematic in Quentin’s case—is maintained”
Quentin is a one year wonder and huge defensive liability. The Sox should have moved him early July for Jones and Dotel of the Pirates during his two week hot streak if possible.
Injuries. He was pretty much hurt off and on all 2009 (not to mention the recovery from the broken wrist), and he’s been hurt off and on this season. He’s been in the lineup at less than 100% when he shouldn’t be. He’ll be closer to that 2008 level if he can ever stay healthy for a full season.
Except he’s been an injury prone player his entire career. They’ve rotated him at DH, but unless he’s there full-time I have no faith Quentin can play a full season.
He holds minor league HBP records for a reason, his stance puts him right over the plate. He’ll be getting hurt as long as he keeps that stance.
And his 2008 season was a fluke, including those power numbers. His flyballs turned into HRs at an unsustainable rate that year. No wonder he’s become a flyable hitter.
Given the Thome mistake and the curious decision to play flotsam at DH, you would think the Sox would just force Quentin to play their full time. Then again, Guillen loves to shuffle his lineups whether its necessary or not.
Jones’s WAR would likely be greater than Carlos’s. Not to mention you swap righty for lefty. I believe Jones has to have a greater upside than Carlos as well.
As for Dotel, that’s a pipe dream, but I have my reasons and mostly they revolve around Sale and what his future holds.
Yeah, that’s what the “if” is for… His 08 injury was self-inflicted – so he may have gotten one full season in.
But yes, he should be DHing, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him only playing about 120 games/year and being healthy down the stretch. Of course, that will get all the fantasy folks in bunches.
Power is not the issue – the ball jumps off his bat when he’s healthy and squaring it up. As noted above, it’s primarily injuries. If you are familiar with guys having wrist injuries and plantar fasciatis, those two both seem to produce a noticeable performance drop off until fully recovered (probably because your feet and hands are critical to hitting mechanics).
This post should have been called – “Will Carlos Quentin ever be healthy for an entire season”. The ’08 stats are anomolous because so far out of the three years selected for analysis (08-10), that was the only season he was healthy from start to finish. It’s just an article for the sake of writing an article. If you follow the White Sox, the reason for the dropoff is no mystery.
He might not get hit as much if the White Sox would pitch inside and/or drill some people, but that’s another article for another day.
I’ll admit that I was one of the folks that didn’t think the Sox should resign Jim Thome; he was still the most feared guy in the lineup and two years ago, Carlos had Thome, Dye and Konerko all with pretty good years.
Yep. Very “Jeff Bagwell” in that regard. He can never get his hands back in time, without completely conceding the inside corner. He dives out over the plate and holds his hands away from his body.
The hands are one spot that cannot take contact from a baseball without breaking bones.
He’s been hurt for two plus years. Despite a really great arm, he’s awful defensively. Add in a consistently bad BABIP. These things negatively affect his WAR. This is a mystery to people?
If the guy ever moves to DH and posts a league average BABIP he’ll win an MVP. And he’ll deserve it.
Quentin has a strong pedigree traveling back to his start with Stanford. 2008 was NOT a fluke. Maybe it’s more than what we should expect in the future.
His ultimate issues deal with mental state and physical health. Let’s not forget that the season ending injury in ’08 was caused by him slapping his bat after a poor at-bat. His ability is obvious, and it is highly talented.
I didn’t say he had no power, I said his HR rate from 2008 was a fluke and unsustainable. If his HR/FB ratio had been in line with his career averages, he would have lost 9 HR and 20 pts of BA. I.e that season would not have been so different from this year.
AJP says:
August 18, 2010 at 9:40 pm
It’s dissipointing to see, he has the talent, he shows flashes of it throughout the season. When he gets hot, he can carry the Sox by himself. And the stats back it up, in Sox wins Carlos has an OPS over 1.000 and in Sox losses just a smidge over .560. For whatever reason, he’s just not able to sustain consistancy or stay healthy. If he could, he would be a monster, and an MVP canidate year in and out. Unfortunatly he’s not, maybe one day he finds a way, but till then he looks to be another Carlos Pena type slugger.
Damnedifino says:
August 18, 2010 at 9:56 pm
Baseball HQ says:
“Power skills are resurgent, featuring a career-high FB%. PX and hr/f are registering at lower levels than in 2008, but are on the rise.
While BA has lagged, xBA is solid. Both BA and xBA are rising, though h% remains depressed. While Quentin’s hit rates are typically low, the current 22% hit rate represents a career-low, and is the prime contributor to a wide BA/xBA gap. The atypically low hit rate and the BA/xBA gap indicate a potential BA surge.
Quentin has become an extreme fly-ball hitter, which could be contributing to the lower hit rate.
Quentin is in the midst of a bounceback season, though his production has not yet matched his skills, as BA is under-performing xBA by a wide margin. Hit rate normalization is likely to result in a narrowing of the BA/xBA gap, lifting BA, though the extreme FB% may limit the extent of any BA surge. Surging power appears sustainable as power skills have not yet reached 2008′s peak levels. The evidence suggests that a strong finish in which the production catches up to the skills is likely, provided health—seemingly always problematic in Quentin’s case—is maintained”
Daniel Andrews says:
August 18, 2010 at 11:05 pm
Quentin is a one year wonder and huge defensive liability. The Sox should have moved him early July for Jones and Dotel of the Pirates during his two week hot streak if possible.
West says:
August 19, 2010 at 12:23 am
Why? they’ve seen the Dotel movie before and its real bad. And I doubt Jones’s WAR would be above water in the AL.
James says:
August 19, 2010 at 12:33 am
Injuries. He was pretty much hurt off and on all 2009 (not to mention the recovery from the broken wrist), and he’s been hurt off and on this season. He’s been in the lineup at less than 100% when he shouldn’t be. He’ll be closer to that 2008 level if he can ever stay healthy for a full season.
dickey simpkins says:
August 19, 2010 at 12:36 am
Except he’s been an injury prone player his entire career. They’ve rotated him at DH, but unless he’s there full-time I have no faith Quentin can play a full season.
Valuearb says:
August 19, 2010 at 1:30 am
He holds minor league HBP records for a reason, his stance puts him right over the plate. He’ll be getting hurt as long as he keeps that stance.
And his 2008 season was a fluke, including those power numbers. His flyballs turned into HRs at an unsustainable rate that year. No wonder he’s become a flyable hitter.
Ryan W says:
August 19, 2010 at 2:43 am
Given the Thome mistake and the curious decision to play flotsam at DH, you would think the Sox would just force Quentin to play their full time. Then again, Guillen loves to shuffle his lineups whether its necessary or not.
Daniel Andrews says:
August 19, 2010 at 4:44 am
Jones’s WAR would likely be greater than Carlos’s. Not to mention you swap righty for lefty. I believe Jones has to have a greater upside than Carlos as well.
As for Dotel, that’s a pipe dream, but I have my reasons and mostly they revolve around Sale and what his future holds.
Jim says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:56 am
The guy has 24 HRs in354 ABs this year, and you think his power numbers in ’08 were fluke? Power is not an issue.
The interesting stats about Quentin, this year, are his massive home/road splits: .992 OPS at home, .663 on the road.
Lucas says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:04 am
I always thought getting HBP was what he did best. Don’t take away his bread and butter!
James says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:39 am
Yeah, that’s what the “if” is for… His 08 injury was self-inflicted – so he may have gotten one full season in.
But yes, he should be DHing, and I wouldn’t mind seeing him only playing about 120 games/year and being healthy down the stretch. Of course, that will get all the fantasy folks in bunches.
James says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:46 am
Power is not the issue – the ball jumps off his bat when he’s healthy and squaring it up. As noted above, it’s primarily injuries. If you are familiar with guys having wrist injuries and plantar fasciatis, those two both seem to produce a noticeable performance drop off until fully recovered (probably because your feet and hands are critical to hitting mechanics).
This post should have been called – “Will Carlos Quentin ever be healthy for an entire season”. The ’08 stats are anomolous because so far out of the three years selected for analysis (08-10), that was the only season he was healthy from start to finish. It’s just an article for the sake of writing an article. If you follow the White Sox, the reason for the dropoff is no mystery.
He might not get hit as much if the White Sox would pitch inside and/or drill some people, but that’s another article for another day.
Keek says:
August 19, 2010 at 4:08 pm
I’ll admit that I was one of the folks that didn’t think the Sox should resign Jim Thome; he was still the most feared guy in the lineup and two years ago, Carlos had Thome, Dye and Konerko all with pretty good years.
CircleChange11 says:
August 19, 2010 at 4:22 pm
Yep. Very “Jeff Bagwell” in that regard. He can never get his hands back in time, without completely conceding the inside corner. He dives out over the plate and holds his hands away from his body.
The hands are one spot that cannot take contact from a baseball without breaking bones.
There are too many “what if’s” for TCQ.
MikeS says:
August 19, 2010 at 8:09 pm
He’s been hurt for two plus years. Despite a really great arm, he’s awful defensively. Add in a consistently bad BABIP. These things negatively affect his WAR. This is a mystery to people?
If the guy ever moves to DH and posts a league average BABIP he’ll win an MVP. And he’ll deserve it.
baty says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:52 pm
Quentin has a strong pedigree traveling back to his start with Stanford. 2008 was NOT a fluke. Maybe it’s more than what we should expect in the future.
His ultimate issues deal with mental state and physical health. Let’s not forget that the season ending injury in ’08 was caused by him slapping his bat after a poor at-bat. His ability is obvious, and it is highly talented.
baty says:
August 19, 2010 at 9:58 pm
Jones is 29. The only upside is seeing what a full season of his might look like (’10 will be his first).
macseries says:
August 19, 2010 at 10:36 pm
then again it “there” vs. “their” vs. “they’re” is the easiest mistake to make in writing, and you made it. so.
Valuearb says:
August 20, 2010 at 2:29 am
I didn’t say he had no power, I said his HR rate from 2008 was a fluke and unsustainable. If his HR/FB ratio had been in line with his career averages, he would have lost 9 HR and 20 pts of BA. I.e that season would not have been so different from this year.