FanGraphs Baseball

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  1. Jays quietly picked up former #1 overall pick SS turned SP Matt Bush….

    Comment by Matt B. — February 11, 2009 @ 8:45 am

  2. And?

    Comment by Eric Seidman — February 11, 2009 @ 8:49 am

  3. To be fair, Uggla is a win a year better than Ellis and three years younger to boot. What’s up with his defense, though? +10,-15,0 over the last three years? Sample size?

    Comment by don — February 11, 2009 @ 9:29 am

  4. I read your 2B column with much interest; but I’d like to point out that 2B has generally had pretty fair representation of decent hitters in each generation of play, aside from the obvious like Hornsby, Cuuccinello, Doerr, Gordon, Gehringer, etc. Even the bat-starved ’60s had guys who kept their heads above water like Fox, Temple, Runnels, Gilliam, the tragic Ken Hubbs, Beckert, Hunt and Lumpe.

    Comparing my own defense + RC metrics for 2B mentioned in your article, and using 85RC per each lineup “slot” [85*9=765/162=4.72 runs/game], I get the following for each from 2006 through 2008 in aggregate runs:

    2B…………Offense RC………Defense Runs……..Net Runs….”Slot’ AVG

    Phillips………266…………………-12.25…………..253.75……..255

    Hudson……..245.9……………….+24.6…………..270.60………255

    Sanchez…….257.9……………….+ 6.8…………..267.70………255

    Hill…………..200.5……………….+18.4…………..219.30………255

    Utley………..378.0………………..- 4.8…………..373.20……….255

    Uggla……….296.4……………….-12.25………….284.15……….255

    The last column presumes a hitter at 2B who offensively creates 85 runs and is defense neutral @ +/- 0. With a high hitting climate, I’m presuming 4.1 PA @ 162 games = 664 plate appearances. 85 RC = .1280 RC/PA.

    If I’m near right, the players above would rate as follows:

    Player………………Net + Runs………Runs as Wins

    Utley…………………118.2………………..11.82
    Uggla……………….. 29.2………………….2.92
    Hudson…………….. 15.6………………….1.56
    Sanchez…………….. 12.7………………….1.27
    Phillips……………..- 1.75………………..-0.18
    Hill………………….- 36.1…………………-3.61

    Runs are 3 year aggregates, so Utley would be worth (11.82/3) = +3.94 Wins per each of the last three seasons.

    Comment by tom — February 11, 2009 @ 1:22 pm

  5. … and it’s kind of amazing, seeing as how the only thing he’s thrown in the past year or so have been punches.

    Comment by Walter Jones — February 11, 2009 @ 2:22 pm

  6. You’re comparing to average rather than replacement, so there’s two of your wins/season back.

    Comment by don — February 11, 2009 @ 5:40 pm

  7. Don:

    I saw nothing in the article that defined performance against replacement. In fact, the +/- numbers eeven amon the “elite” 2B named were so small on a seasonal average basis as to belie that.

    Also the offense +/- defense construction above replacement and amounting to only 22.7 wins, net, above replacement, seem to be not that much of an accomplishment.

    Comment by tom — February 11, 2009 @ 6:01 pm

  8. Tom, don’t take this the wrong way but it would be in your best interest to get familiar with our metrics. Performance is ALWAYS defined against replacement here. The way we construct win values is as follows:

    1) Convert wOBA to wRAA, which is the batting component
    2) Add to the UZR defense component
    3) Add in a positional adjustment per 162 games, prorated if below 162 games
    4) Add in adjustment above replacement, which is +20 runs per 600 PA.

    The wRAA and UZR compare to the league average, but the replacement adjustment takes care of that.

    And +22.7 wins over 3 yrs is INSANELY impressive. That’s over +7 wins/yr. To say it isn’t an accomplishment is to not understand what good win values are, in all honesty.

    Comment by Eric Seidman — February 11, 2009 @ 6:07 pm

  9. OK, I get it. New to FanGraphs, I did not realize that UZR was a fixed standard; nor was I led to presume that in the face of refined granularity of wOBA and wRAA [with the "A"] assumed as average, that there might be an argument for reducing defense to above replacement.

    Applying my own defense measure for Utley against repalcement, I get a composite +178 runs for Utley or +5.93 runs/year. I stand corrected on the obvious bit though: +5.93 or +7 WINS IS insanely good @ a position/year. [I let yself get thrown by the “replcement” reference.

    Comment by tom — February 11, 2009 @ 7:59 pm

  10. Tom, no problem whatsoever, I just wanted to make sure that you were familiar with how we do things before we could really engage in a discussion. Otherwise, I’d end up explaining steps 4 and 5 for things with which you had no basis for steps 1-3, you know?

    UZR is a defensive metric created by Mitchel Lichtman, former head statmaster for the St. Louis Cardinals. Both UZR and wRAA are in fact measured above average, but we need to convert that to replacement level, so the +20 runs per 600 PA come into play. Then the positional adjustment per 162 games comes into play (-12.5 1B, +2.5 2B/3B/CF, +12.5 C, -7.5 LF/RF, +7.5 SS).

    Comment by Eric Seidman — February 11, 2009 @ 8:03 pm

  11. Pretty nice article, i have been doing construction for a while now and agree.

    Comment by Dave Jones — July 6, 2009 @ 7:06 pm

  12. how is 3 years of statistics a question of sample size?

    Comment by josh — June 24, 2013 @ 12:30 pm

  13. phillips at the bottom of the last list doesn’t make sense. in the first table, is that saying that he’s saved 12.25 runs on defense or just the opposite?

    Comment by josh — June 24, 2013 @ 12:35 pm

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