Love the new game NERD Carson ESPN should choose their games of the week based on which has the highest NERD. Also, Carson mentioned this the other day and I was wondering-why does everyone hate Joe Buck? I haven’t listened to him that much but he doesn’t seem too offensive. Does he not like new stats and wants everyone to sac bunt like Joe Morgan and Chip Caray?
Comment by AthleticsBraves — August 25, 2010 @ 12:40 pm
Worth noting that Span’s pronounced reverse split isn’t just a 2010 oddity, but has shown up each year he’s been in the majors, and is there in his minor league career numbers as well. To me (with all due respect to my friend, er, mutual-twitter-follow-person Parker), that suggests that you should basically consider Span a righty when it comes to matchups. Maybe sit him because he’s struggling so much, but not just because he’s facing a tough lefty.
Carson, looking at CJ Wilson’s stats made me realize something. “Hotness” or “Coldness” should be entered as well… perhaps you could do a zScore for their stats within the last four weeks compared to their season stats. So, for example, CJ Wilson would be hot because of his shiny 2.10 xFIP over his recent work.
This is a huge difference compared to Josh Johnson’s (I don’t have numbers but I think we both know it isn’t around his old 1.97 ERA) recent xFIP compared to his season stats. Also I might add that It would be ideal to use his season stats before the stats for his “recent work” are used.
AKA Start of the season – Aug 1 = regular season stats.
Aug 2 – Aug 24 = recent stats determining how “hot” or “cold” he is.
I would say that this is an interesting idea considering it might not be as interesting to watch Josh Johnson’s next start as his NERD score says because he’s been going through quite a rough patch.
Comment by Matt Defalco — August 25, 2010 @ 1:18 pm
Hey Bill — Good point about Span’s splits and I did have a paragraph on that written up before cutting it because I was getting wordy.
I think Span’s success (and I would have to doublecheck my Inside Edge numbers before committing to this) against lefties is due to their overall tendency to throw same-sided opponents more breaking pitches. Span’s ability to stay back allows him to stay on those pitches more readily and drive them better. Part of the reason I suspect that Wilson has and would dominate Span is that Wilson leans on his fastball against LHB (70% usage) and Span has been absolutely horrid against the hard stuff in 2010 (-7.8 wFB). Also, while Span has had success against lefties, he has not done well against Wilson (2-for-8 with 3 Ks).
I wholeheartedly endorse keeping Span in the lineup against left-handed pitchers, even tough ones, but in this case, Wilson has been very effective this year and Span has been trying to make adjustments to the way opponents have approached him. In the end, I recommend sitting him not just because of the tough lefty factor but also because it gives him time to reassess his approach at the plate.