FanGraphs Baseball


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  1. Is Josh Hamilton too obvious?

    Comment by Scott K. — August 31, 2010 @ 12:45 pm

  2. Bautista would have been at least 1000:1 on leading the majors in HR – it’s not a category where someone completely unexpected jumps up often (adrian Beltre Kevin Mitchell look like the most surprising of the past 25 years), he wasn’t necessarily due full playing time, and he’s Jose Bautista.

    Did Huff get hurt in 2005? He was cruising along as a solid hitter for his position for a while, and then had 3 terrible years.

    Comment by aweb — August 31, 2010 @ 12:47 pm

  3. Too much time lost to injury last year, although I did make an exception for Weeks. I may include him for tomorrow.

    Comment by Pat Andriola — August 31, 2010 @ 12:51 pm

  4. Yeah, I considered the injury bit, but Weeks threw me. I guess you could also make the argument that Hamilton’s success wasn’t nearly as unpredictable as these other guys.

    Comment by Scott K. — August 31, 2010 @ 12:57 pm

  5. Beltre and Kevin Mitchell are the most surprising? Brady Anderson wants some recognition.

    Comment by ACWNS09 — August 31, 2010 @ 1:06 pm

  6. You can’t really say Hamilton’s increased production comes from more playing time; his wOBA went up 120 points, which is a bigger leap than anybody on the list.

    Comment by ACWNS09 — August 31, 2010 @ 1:18 pm

  7. Anderson didn’t lead the league that year. He hit 50 and Mark McGwire hit 52.

    Comment by Bill — August 31, 2010 @ 1:21 pm

  8. Anderson didn’t lead the league in HR’s in ’96. His 50 were second to Big Mac’s 52, who wouldn’t constitute much of a surprise.

    Comment by nmh — August 31, 2010 @ 1:22 pm

  9. Cecil Fielder’s (first) home run title has to rank as a surpirse on the same level. He was in Japan the year before, wasn’t he?

    Comment by Bill — August 31, 2010 @ 1:33 pm

  10. I was surprised how few surprising guys have managed it (Kluszewski in ’54, maybe?). Some are less surprising in retrospect (Fielder in 1990 was shocking at the time), which perhaps portends great things in the future for Bautista, at least for a few years. Leading the majors in homers is almost never done by a flash in the pan.

    Comment by aweb — August 31, 2010 @ 1:36 pm

  11. No Andres Torres?

    Comment by AK707 — August 31, 2010 @ 1:36 pm

  12. I totally misread that. Just thought you meant surprising leaps in general.

    Comment by ACWNS09 — August 31, 2010 @ 2:01 pm

  13. Ripper Collins was a shocker. Not one of these #6org bloggers called his HR title, anyway. Apparently PECOTA “didn’t like him”. Good thing Ripper didn’t listen.

    Comment by MelvinO — August 31, 2010 @ 2:11 pm

  14. I second the vote for Andres Torres.

    Comment by Hairball — August 31, 2010 @ 2:22 pm

  15. The point is that injury probably decreased his performance overall, including the components of wOBA, and made the sample size of his performance smaller, leading to more variance and less reliability to analyze skill.

    Comment by Pat Andriola — August 31, 2010 @ 2:51 pm

  16. Pagan?
    Although I guess you could chalk that up to a playing time issue.

    Comment by Ogre39666 — August 31, 2010 @ 3:12 pm

  17. Third for Andres Torres. While the WAR jump is “only” 3.7, the difference in performance is astounding, and should be noted.

    Comment by SFG — August 31, 2010 @ 3:18 pm

  18. Surprised Liriano is not on the list (plus 4.6WAR)

    (Though pitcher WAR is a bit sketchy)

    Comment by joe — August 31, 2010 @ 3:36 pm

  19. If you mention Weeks, you gotta mention Alex Rios too.

    Andres Torres is another one.

    Comment by BaconSlayer09 — August 31, 2010 @ 11:19 pm

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