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  1. Yep. I totally buy into Stubbs’s power and this is why you cannot look at minor league stats and think that you know how to project a guy as a major leaguer. Prospects simply aren’t finished products, and weighing the scouting reports heavily seems like the most prudent route.

    Hittracker has Stubbs’s average true HR distance at 401.9 feet so the favorable home park definitely doesn’t explain it all away. The power is legitimate.

    Comment by jar75 — October 4, 2010 @ 8:18 pm

  2. Stubbs has been since the day he was drafted, viewed as a potential 25 HR a season guy. I had countless arguments with people about it because he ‘didn’t show it’ in the minor leagues. I am a pretty big stats guy, but when we are talking about prospects, you need to lean toward scouting on things like power because it matters a lot more than production. You could watch Stubbs (or at least I could) and see that the power was there. despite a low number of HR’s in the minors, when Stubbs did hit them, he clobbered them. It was just a sign of things to come for a guy who had to come an incredibly long way to go in terms of revamping his swing from the day he was drafted.

    Comment by Doug Gray — October 4, 2010 @ 8:31 pm

  3. Considering he’s 6’4”, I think it was kind of expected that the power would come.

    Comment by Mitchello — October 4, 2010 @ 8:39 pm

  4. Nice article written with an open mind. I’ve seen some try to explain every circumstance with sabermetrics (and I’m not knocking sabermetrics). You took a logical approach and it made sense to me.

    Comment by ripperlv — October 4, 2010 @ 8:40 pm

  5. Per HRTracker, Stubbs’ average standardized HR distance was 397′, compared to 394′ on average in the NL. He also hit 4 HR to RF, and 8 to CF (by my count… sort of hard to tell), and more No Doubters than Just Enoughs. In event, Drew does not want for raw power. He’s not hitting wall scrapers.

    Early in the season, he was very vulnerable to anything breaking/off-speed low and away. As the season went on, he got much better at handling that pitch. He’s was very raw coming out of Texas but has adjusted every step along the way.

    I’d be very surprised if he hits less than 15 HR in 600 PA next year and not surprised at all to see him north of 25.

    Comment by RMR — October 4, 2010 @ 9:58 pm

  6. this is where stats geeks fail. They are always surprised and caught off guard when a player breaksout or does something only scouting saw.

    when was the last time stats geeks projected a player to improve in mlb over milb? Yet it happens often.

    Comment by Lionofthesenate — October 5, 2010 @ 12:38 am

  7. And you say that in the article that uses scouting sources to inform readers about Stubbs’s development? So called “stat geeks” actually understand the value of scouting; the evidence is right in front of you.

    Comment by Bam — October 5, 2010 @ 12:57 am

  8. I agree with all of Doug’s points. Scouts generally tabbed Stubbs as having very good power, especially for a CF, coming out of college. Stubbs may well regress, and I think the strikeouts are here to stay, but he’s still developing and has more projection left. I won’t be surprised if he has an up and down 2011 and then takes another step forward in 2012 as he enters his prime.

    Comment by blackout — October 5, 2010 @ 10:40 am

  9. A stat geek would not be looking at minor league stats to establish is a player will be any good on the MLB level…

    Comment by Jim Lahey — October 5, 2010 @ 3:03 pm

  10. I’m not suggesting this comparison because they’re white, but because I think it is apt. Dale Murphy. Both big, athletic guys who strike out a lot and are not going to hit for high average. I don’t think Stubbs has the same kind of freakish and graceful athleticism that Cameron possesses. I think his is more “raw”, as other comments have suggested, and that eventually he moves to an OF corner and tops out with a 40 HR season and a few in the 30’s, like Murphy.

    Comment by Paul — October 6, 2010 @ 12:04 am

  11. Stubbs can be a good player if he puts on more weight(20 lbs or so) and having more patience along with contact. He can be solid with a .260 avg 20-25, 30-35 2B, and 25 steals guy.

    Comment by cyrwr1 — October 6, 2010 @ 12:43 pm

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